Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
The question discussed here whether markets are random or not is a little too wide, any exchange market itself should be treated as a system with certain frame works such as open and close time, up and down limit rules, tick size etc., within which price roam around.
Therefore I think I like to narrow it down to「Is price activity in the market random?」.
And offer my opinion below.
1) Price ticks are random.
2) Price distributions are not.
First one I call it 「local randomness」. It can be up or down or the same from previous tick, it is similar to each individual human-being; it can be a man or a woman, an Asian or an African.
The second one is called 「global determinism」. With different figures, any normal human being would have a head with two arms and two legs and can’t be mistaken as ape. In fact, explain it with chaos theory, there are always eternal fractals which appear in form of equilateral triangles in the price distributions. It is easy for trader to visualize it.
Most of all, any market activity is a never ending cycle between randomness and determinism.
You can make money in a random market ... as long as it isn't a chaotic market .
If statistics show the market travels an average of 15 ticks after a reversal with an average of 8 ticks of "heat" an ATM strategy of a 15 tick target and an 8 tick stop could make money.
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
What time frame is this chart? Is it a volume profile chart? Looks like you could just follow the point of control at the tip of the right facing triangles and trade that when it reverses direction.
i am starting a thread to show that price forecasting is indeed possible once we think out of the box. attached is the price forecasting for S&P500 emini for 21 Nov 2011. I will be recording my forecast for a few markets when possible.
…
It's basically non-gaussian MP, but he didn't get the distribution right. At least it's not fine-tuned enough to warrant keeping it for himself.