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Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
Make a contribution? You will be doing that enough already being new and using just one method. What I can tell you is become an expert in one instrument. Know what is does over years and years of data. Find out the likelihood of different things happening. For example over the last 6, 4 or 2 years find out how often your instrument tags yesterday's high or low. If you find it's only 20% of the time forget about it an move on but just keep it in the back of your mind. But, if you find out through your research that it's 68% of the time now there is a way to make money. Once you are an expert in your chosen product you will see your chart patterns and have a good idea of what they mean. In the mine that is your instrument there are many gems. Can you find them?
Take care
Ronald J Cutaia Jr
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
My HFT sim program, if I had one, is watching those levels too. Have learnt to wait for HFTs/elephants to create a false breakout above a DT or overnight high (below DB/OLow), take out stops of 'everyone elses' premature shorts (longs), and then take the market down/up. Yeah, sometimes it will actually go down/up without such a trap but always better to be patient and wait on traps.
There's too much unpredictability for there to be a way to discern the "effectiveness" of one method over a different method. Regardless of which approach you choose, there's a super-thin fine line between having an edge and not having an edge. You're talking about something that was mathematically shown is unpredictable: the price of an asset cannot be predicted.
Some people take that to mean that markets cannot be beat.
A few folks, like myself, say that price doesn't matter as long as you can establish probabilities of price areas. When I trade, I operate under the assumption that the price behavior sometimes indicates that a certain range of prices is more likely to occur than a different range in the opposite direction.
This involves support, resistance, and volatility, so historical data (charts) are useful in showing where those areas are. But price defies congestion zones just as frequently as it defies any other attempts to predict it, so those type of things are only guidelines in your attempt to identify probabilities.