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1. Ask myself- Where is price now, what is it doing? Where is price now? Is it near an area of interest? What is it doing? Is price expanding or contracting? Is it trending, ranging, or constricting?
A. If price is contracting, then I will patiently wait for signs this cycle may be ending before I enable my strategy, keeping in mind where price is related to VWAP.
B. If price is both expanding and trending then I will enable my strategy only in the direction of the trend on a DM crossover pullback.
C. if price is expanding and ranging then I will enable the strategy in both directions until price starts to contract.
2. This weeks goal is to verify that my method of trading is useable and could be profitable, therefore I need to take trades as if I were live so that I can gather good data.
3. Verification would come in the form of performance results that match my trade plan expectations. I'm looking for trades that lead to a minimum of 40 ticks a week over fees and commissions. I need to know that the strategy and method is capable.
Yes, that's who he is. Kevin is scrupulous in not trying to cash in on his reputation, but pay attention to anything he says. He always has a point and he's always worth listening to.
Day 184 without edge. This sucks. Considering having and exorcism to alleviate me of my constant bias that "Hey! this must be the bottom!". It never is. I know it isn't. Could be demonic in nature. Still I struggle on. Feeling kind of bummed out. My trade idea sucked, or I suck at applying it. Either way, its not gonna buy momma a pretty dress. *Note to self* If your going to trade tight ass ranges, trade the edge of the range with a tight ass stop loss or GTFO.
1-3. When price breaks out, it expands.
The real question is whether or not I can be patient enough to trade it. So far, no luck. Below is what sucking looks like. I'm posting it below. Hopefully it will shame me into getting some God Damn discipline.
I know. Damn near anyone could have made money today, the ES was giving it away. The money that I made was not nearly what I could have, BUT- I did make a little bit, and learned a little bit more. I'm hoping what I learned will lead to better entries in the future. I made my renko bars larger. It hides some information, but provides me with a entry signal that I can understand. As the price changes, the bar will typically have a wick, I buy or sell when the bar fully forms. Stop loss goes underneath the wick by a tick, and I let the trade ride until the next bar is fully formed. This is the only way I plan on entering trades for now. It Worked good today and I'll see how it goes tomorrow. As you can see here, it looks good on the chart, although there should more entries, some scaling in. I'll get there.
I got in late today, made some adjustments which seemed to pay of in execution. If I can keep this kind of trade performance in the future I'll feel confidant in taking this project to the next level. Time will tell. The next goal I will be trying to hit is consistent quality entries.
Once again I was able to correctly guess where the market was heading, took a good position, and made a couple of good trades as a result. I was a little late on my initial entry, but the second entry was really good. Coming off nigh shift I was not able to stay in the market, but I could see like yesterday I could have managed my initial position better. Looking forward to seeing how I trade a day that isn't trending so hard. Feeling guardedly optimistic about my newish entry criteria. Further testing is needed.
This is the trade result that I am striving for on a daily basis. I'll believe its happening when I see it enough times. I'm green for the week.
This is where I'm currently at in my journey as a trader. This is one of the Futures IO webinars, its a fantastic resource. This one really spoke to me.
It is how I see the market. Everyday the price moves in understandable patterns; trending, ranging, consolidating, in directions; higher, lower and sideways, with a degree of force; expanding or contracting. By being able to identify these I can know when and where to enter and exit trades.
First I always look to trade into expansion, survive contraction and avoid consolidation. I always try to trade trends, buying and selling the pullbacks. I will consider trading flat ranges, only is the range is large enough. I will try to avoid trading in contraction, but if I do, I expect to take smaller profit scalps. I avoid contraction, and I will wait for a breakout and structure to resume.
All my trades will be taken with a 4 point stop loss and an initial 6 point profit target. All trades will be taken when price turns and my trigger chart prints a bar with a tail. I never move my stop loss. I always look to maximize my profit.
I do not need to fear loss, for I will only ever lose 4 points at a time, but should rather fear the loss of time and thus be encouraged to take the trades my edge helps me in identifying.
I finished the day almost 3 points in profit, spending almost 2 hours in the market. Its not the ideal result, but once again I learned a little bit, made a little bit more. The Good- I was able to survive this tightening range as price started to contract. This is showing me that it is possible to trade this pattern. The Bad- I didn't follow my strategy going into the fourth leg and started to make mistakes that lead to lost trades. I was able to recover from those, but if I would have been a bit more disciplined today. The Ugly- I could have left the market earlier with more profit, saving time and money. Also, the pattern was changing from a tight range to, damn, cant think of what to call it- that shit I defiantly don't trade (Consolidation). I shouldn't have been trading after the fourth leg until price changed phases. Live and learn.
Once again I ended the day in profit. I am still green for week and about a point shy of my weekly minimum target of 10 points. Today I survived a tight range, but I think in the future I could do a little better, and thrive in a tight range.