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I don't know if I can give any suggestions that will help. I certainly would if I could, but everyone is different, and I don't know what will be the thing(s) that you need. Nor am I necessarily so smart that I can see it.
But I did see these things, so take them for what they are worth:
1. Your stats show a good, high win %, and show your average win as higher than your average loss. But the average win amount is probably reflecting that initial higher win of +658. Ignoring that, you're basically flat for the Combine so far, as you said. So even with your high win %, it isn't helping you because all the trades are very small. Many are -$3, which means BE and loss of commission.
2. One of the things that I have kept noticing as I have read your journal lately is some statement like "moved stop to BE." This is a strategy to keep losses down, but kills any chance of profit. I understand that it is much better to limit a loss than to let it grow, but also that BE is not helping you much, on balance. I have seen that very often the move to BE was a good call because price continued against you, so it isn't necessarily wrong. But either the move to BE is killing you, or your original trade entry is. Do you ever see a case where, after taking some heat (loss), the trade would have turned in your favor? If so, then not being willing to take any loss will keep you from realizing the gain. Basically, you're requiring every trade to be 100% perfect and giving it no leeway before killing it. I don't know how many of these would or might have worked out, but that is something to look at, as is the quick move to BE when it isn't working right away.
3. I also notice that you tend to stop for the day after one of these BE trades. Again, stopping when you're down can be smart, but not trading after a small loss removes the chance of any profit that entire day.
4. You note that you have trouble jumping on a trend. You are right that no one knows if it will continue, but if you never take it, or wait until you are sure, you are going to never be in it.
On balance, I think that you're extremely risk-averse, and it is not working out for you. I have found all your pre-market analyses to be very good, but when it comes time to execute, you are either waiting, or going to BE, or in some other way letting price go by without you.
You have talked about your courage, but your courage is fine. Otherwise you wouldn't continue to force yourself to face all this -- and good on you for doing so, by the way.
What you need is not courage, it's to click that mouse, when your read of the market says "Do it." If you don't let your trades have some room, and you won't risk any loss, then you won't have any returns either. Now, if your reading of the market were just no good, then I would say that you need to work on that.... but your grasp of the market's possibilities, the important levels, what price might do on its way to them, etc., is pretty good, certainly as good as you need it to be. Executing what you believe is the thing.
I am very, very familiar with this, by the way. I used to be a steady break-even, no-risk, no-profit trader, who blew up every time I tried to take a step and make some profit. Now I'm still a pretty terrible trader (), sliding back and climbing out again, but the net movement is up, and it takes clicking that damn mouse to get that started.
So, I know that you realize most or all of what I have said, but I hope that you can take something from it and build on it and start to move ahead.
Since you are not as long-winded as I am, you were making the points more simply while I was still typing mine.... But I think we saw pretty much the same things.
I think you should consider a different market and maybe get out of futures altogether. Moving stop to break even belies fear. You can't trade that way. Plenty of trading opportunities outside of crude and leveraged futures. Places where you can experiment more, place wider stops. Just my observation.
Bob, thank you for your thoughtful response. I knew that my plea for help would open up a big can and that's ok. There are probably a lot of things others can see that I can not and I am willing to listen and consider everything. I thought is easier to respond to your points above in red
I am definitely trading out of fear because I have seen no evidence in my trading to be confident. Trading something that didn't cost as much money would help for holding trades longer but I am not sure it would help me be profitable. At the end of the day a certain number of your trades have to work and not enough of mine do, or at least I don't think they do. I am not sure my read of the market would be any better on a larger time frame. I used to swing trade stocks and ran into the same problems, entering markets at the wrong time in the wrong direction. I know I am sounding pretty negative right now and I'm sorry.
Damn- we said the EXACT same thing but you said it a lot better (clearer). I obviously 100% agree with everything you wrote and will be taking notes as to how to become a better writer! Very well said Bob!
I've put some thought into what Bob and I said and your responses. This may sound crazy, but maybe you need to be more active as Bob said and take more shots at your ideas just to see if your trades "stats" are truly not favorable. If that is not an option, you unfortunately must stop trading your present system, go back to the drawing board and come up with something new ( but I don't think that's the answer).
Another idea- maybe you should focus on implementing a new trade- something you are not doing that is designed to be a "with trend" trade so that you can begin to find comfort there. It could be as simple as a VWAP retrace using the OR as a long short filter ( if above OR then long when price stalls near VWAP- vice versa for shorts). That's just an example but it's got a trend element and a value element so odds have got to be better than 50/50 you can make it ( or whatever you come up with) work and learn to get on board trends.
One last thing- Oil is a difficult market to trade because there are no internals and a lot of forces that generate big moves on minor news. Have you considered the boring old indices like ES? A lot more information can be taken into consideration than simply price and volume, the moves are generally slower and levels played upon more precisely than CL affording you more comfort and less fear.
You know what? You probably have had the experience in other things of failing and trying and failing again and then suddenly getting it. I sure have! Sometimes the failing part lasts a long time, but not forever. And then you succeed at it.
I think you are pushing in the right direction. It is hard stuff, and not for the faint of heart, which you definitely are not.
I agree with your comments in red, including your clarifications. You are the one who knows what he is doing.
It is, unfortunately, a totally individual journey/effort/adventure/pain-in-the-ass, whichever you want to call it. Your solution will be yours, and I am certain you will get there, if you persist at it. Which is your choice, of course.
Good luck, and if I can do anything to help, I will be glad to do so. Everyone who is reading your journal is rooting for your success.
I cant trade the higher time frame analysis because it would require more risk and I am not in position to scale in and take on 50-100 ticks of risk to play these events like you do. I mainly use the macro analysis for directional clues to drop down to my risk level, which is 10-15 ticks per contract. I know you don't believe in this small of risk but it is all I can do right now and others have made it work. If you were forced at gun point to trade with my risk tolerance, could you make money? If so, what would be the one or two things you would suggest I focus on or do next week?
@Tap In: I know you're being bombarded by advice, but two quick thoughts raised by the above:
- Any sort of "with trend" trade has a better chance of success, particularly if you can get in fairly early. The time that trend-oriented trades will fail is during a non-trending range. If you can see when price comes out of a range, then the trend trade has a better chance of succeeding. Your pre-market work on likely support/resistance levels may help identify relevant levels here.
- Oil is a difficult market, period. I'm scared of it, although it is also very intriguing. It sort of sucks you in. @Big Mike, who is a very, very, very good trader, has called it the "widow maker." ES is slower, "boring" as @Inletcap says, and it won't take your head off so casually. People who crave action despise it. But there is money there to be made. Warning: it spends a lot of time in ranges and does not have the sharp reversals and big surges of CL. People used to CL complain about it. But it is also more survivable.
Generally, making a big change, such as a different market, is something to be cautious about. But you might think about this also.