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Yes, I'm a vendor , but I'm not a registered vendor on futures.io
But I'm not violating anything
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Someone else did mention a video of mine on youtube
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Erwin
After 1.5 years of learning only this style I gave up in November 2020.
I spent at least 2000 hours watching charts, drawing lines, testing all those setups and watching his videos.
And even after all that I found that all I do when SIM trade is question myself is this line drawn right, maybe I should change it, does it fits here. I took trade here and It didn't work why? Oh because it's too close to S/R. You literally can doubt everything. It doesn't matter that trade was loser or winner.
Too much thinking, too much decisions. It leads to decision fatigue when I can do nothing. It's not a psychological problem, I really tried to help myself with meditation, journaling my thoughts, reactions like Brett Steenbarger recommends to do. The problem is too much discretionary.
Maybe if you do this for 20+ like Mack or Al Brooks you can success. Well, good luck with that.
Have you gone through all the videos on Mack's site with a one to three pages of notes on each subject (not the YouTube channel videos)? There are around 60 videos. If you are just reading the Manual and have not watched all of the videos and read all the articles you are missing out on a ton of great information. I believe you have to be a member of PATs to get access to the videos, not sure if you get that if you just buy the Manual. I believe the membership is around $100 a year. Some of the videos - multiple Failed 2nd Entry videos, Congestion, trading ranges, Traps, Breakout pullback trades, etc.
Hi guys, not sure how old this post but I'll add my 2 cents here anyway lol
Iv been trading the PATS system for about 6 months now, it is a solid great way of trading however I've always had problem with Mac's RR.
Iv been doing OK during that period of time but always felt there must be away to reduce the risk which recently has become 4 points on average emini trade.
Few weeks ago I've discovered order flow and the jigsaw tool and was wondering if there is away to combine both so I can fine tune my entire and hopefully be able to enter with the DOM and by that way use my stops from the Dom vs just placing them below the low if the signal bar (long)
So, here's what I think: it is possible and there's allot if logic behind such an approach however since the eminis are so fast I still have troubles reading the Dom during action. The damn thing can be really fast at a time.
I base my decision of the 2000t chart (2nd entry and traps) using the jigsaw tools for more confirmation (recon T&S, Vista heat map etc). I'm still learning. I'm sure after awhile it will become a second nature, I'm not there yet though...
That is exactly the problem with this strategy. It has a variable stop-loss and a fixed (4-tick) target
The stop loss is variable since (according to Mack) it always goes 1 tick below/above the signal bar,
For the target, however, Mack stated multiple times he always sticks to a fixed 4-tick target no matter what.
The problem here is that your stop loss will get bigger if volatility picks up. Especially in today's extremely volatile markets, we see that this strategy requires huge stop losses.
So stop-loss gets bigger, while your take profit target sticks to 4 ticks.
Sure you can trade multiple contracts and have a scalp + runner but these occasional runners will not offset the numerous losing scalps
Another idea I hear a lot is to use a smaller position size. So in extreme volatility, you trade fewer contracts or go to the micro contracts. While it's true that you will lose less when you have a smaller position size, it does not change your win rate or risk/reward. Meaning. you are still vulnerable to the variable risk (stop loss) and fixed target
Note I'm not complaining about the inverse risk/reward ratio of this strategy. An inverse risk/reward ratio means you risk more than you potentially can win.
This might seem weird, but all scalping strategies have these inverse risk/reward ratios.
As long as you have a high win rate % this is fine and you will still make money
For example. Let's say your scalping strategy has a win rate of 75%, this means that to break even your risk-reward ratio should never be worse than RR 3:1 (risk 3 to win 1)
If however your risk (stop loss) is variable like with PATS and your first target is fixed then you can imagine what's gonna happen
We assume your win rate will stay the same (75%) I think this is reasonable since you won't suddenly win or lose more when volatility changes with this strategy
So your risk (stop loss) is variable and increases due to volatility, the result is that your risk/reward will get worse (perhaps RR 4:1 or RR 5:1 or even worse)
And when your risk/reward becomes worse than 3:1 then you will start to lose more money than you win. (provided you still have a 75% winrate)
To fix this.. either your win rate should go up (which I guess is very hard to do) or your risk/reward needs to improve
So to fix PATS you should have either a fixed stop loss or a fixed or minimum RR which you calculate depending on your win rate
I trade the PATS way for 6 months now and I've asked Mac why hasn't he change the 4t target during crazy market time like we have now and the answer was "because it's working"
ES now rarely gives u 2 points stop loss and the reality of the things is that I've noticed exactly what u mentioned. I must win 85% of the time.
Easier said then done. I can't do that. Not many traders can.
I'm moving from the ES to the treasuries and using jigsaw platform to scalp there. Catching moves in the ZN for example is at least possible and the crazy behavior of the ES is not that frequent there.
Note, I've also tried going for 10 ticks on the ES using Mac's style. Needless to say win rate dropped dramatically lol