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March 30th, 2020, 10:53 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
low volume push, watching the VX wrap around while indexes become unstuck, CL paused
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
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March 31st, 2020, 04:02 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
kinda just in the EOM dead zone, return to PP
if VX focused, have to underline conditions for HH
given stimulus and other discounting measures, CV rates
eye of the storm, could teeter out of a semi-calm pause
but each passing day with stability decreases this
fewer limit breakers, less spiking, normalcy
VX energy resolved into quarter end
//
start of month, two-sided, pushing low range , tick has been under on low volume, some accumulation
April 1st, 2020, 04:45 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
thinking about blockchain as an explicit ledger, CB backed digital banking would avoid..
shadow banking, unknown DXY supply, as dollar demand from early 80s remains
historical representations of currency here , dominant currency prevalence causes disorder, harder to maintain
the security, ownership of crypto is problematic, loss of electricity, forgotten access, supply is reduced, but at least an increase is tracked
so yeah, blockchain could help with this huge accounting problem if problematic
//
just working on some smalls and let things develop, energy boosted but need more ticks
April 3rd, 2020, 10:19 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
stuck market is stuck, can just grab smalls, needs development
supportive attempts in energy, but overall still heavy sentiment
CV uncertainty, trapped between isolation and exposure risks
//
something more collaborative besides pointing fingers please
now is not the time, past politics is a non-issue vs present danger
maybe a training ground and checkpoint for benevolence
//
boj mmt seems to be less subtle vs fed titration approach
lesson learned from sudden moves roiling mkts back then
supportive to avert meltdown crises but will not get in the way
compared to losses from accumulating topix in a DT
dxy for yen to maintain weak multi decade trend
//
so fed drips dxy, which counteracts 6JEA supply, infl
the FX market is a different beast, will explore further
April 6th, 2020, 11:01 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
in the mix, GC still pushing, crowded, BTC simmering, DXY via 6E still there
volume kinda shrivels, on pause, light
physical metal premium not fun, stackers must be nodding
still watching the VX, CL
April 7th, 2020, 03:53 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
another uncertain moment, CL dove, but GC too, faded risk, similar sentiment
CL climbing after hours, some sympathy with DXY, there are FOMC minutes after EIA
good friday closed, still low volume, flows positive
April 9th, 2020, 12:48 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
supportive events, crude turn, CV reduction to offset downtime
slow attempts to pull with a dragging effect, sidelines watching
tech capping at upper range , dampeners throughout
normalcy, carries return, cycle lows, whenever discounting finishes
the lost year to the start of a new decade, leap year, etc
//
like a low volume end of week, noting GC, 6B, CL, DXY
April 11th, 2020, 02:05 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
CL aside, the look at FX brings 6A as the carry, not AJ, as borrowers demand an increasing pool of DXY to fund AUD
metals do confirm ahead, and the coincidence of bond-equity increases such as LQD, HYG, JNK, TLT
mind the inflation is a bit wonky, artificial local air pockets like in GC or even consumer goods, even CL
supply is suppressed causing a temporary shift in price higher on demand, supply needs to equilibrate
commodities aside, index vol also shows developing signals vs 2008, also confirmed by profile
consider the DXY and vol are pushing the high range , with CB credit expansion in the mix
combined with index flows a fast corrective wave, if smaller participants , more agile, and also in reference to nomura
commod infl effect reaction to agris exposure first
then slower reaction to DJIA and SPY once sentiment returns, as CL drags
TL;DR, until total commodity picks up with sentiment, SOH but at least initial glimpses of pickup
//
the bank crisis finger pointing as moral hazard put a cap on bailouts
whereas the shift to CB-Treas removes this sentiment
as a market mover, an attempt to ameliorate sell-offs puts faith somewhere
the attempt to inject credit must work to repair liquidity if not, titrate more
seen more as a backstop than stimulus, the fed pulls back if overdone
not a panacea, or backed into a corner, black weds situation just relief, ensuring faith
basis incentives offered to banks, continue debt ops, but buybacks stopped to repair c-bonds
where some corporations side stepped moral hazard by grabbing too much low yield debt
mixed into tranches, like healthcare insurance providing for sick cases, CV-19 biz effects
some overburdened firms might drop, the toxicity gets weeded out, without the panic
overall, some pain, but interesting in parallel with CV-19 as a survivalist allegory, mini-reset
April 13th, 2020, 12:24 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
slow build after S1 low range , some positive flows, volume tapered
NQ is interesting in shallow territory, less CV sensitive maybe
both CL and GC pushing, maybe a watch on BTC
//
buildup without CL, light curl some sustain but low volume, RS watch
carry confirm, GC still running, BTC slight recovery, bonds ok
CV a reasonable pass for earnings, energy as damper
accumulators being rewarded front running optimism
TBH, not much resist and sell zone is far below
market starting to see R-R into rest of year
wierd gap way below from squeeze tho
dip buying to preserve the momo
April 14th, 2020, 02:33 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
RB not with CL, lower refining activity, CAD event tomorrow pre
virtual and automated plays still need mfg but interesting
//
sticky area to be in, VX roll and CL, but GC off a bit
have to clear the S zone though flows in check
//
week goal, stay positive, monthly stop run
Last Updated on December 31, 2020