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Great thread! I create flashcards and practice this daily myself. Premarket/off-peak data always throws me off so it took all my willpower to avoid looking up the chart to standardize the bars lol:
Minor Spring suggesting Change of Character from consolidating -> trending
Back Up to the Edge of the Creek before continuation of the rally
Buying Exhaustion starting potential distribution pattern
(VSA-specific) - High volume bar w/ no results for the expanded effort. Likely distribution
Above average volume for such a small range. Accumulation present
(VSA-specific) - Price is failing again where prior distribution took place (@ 4). I know the next bar is low volume based on the chart, but not what direction lol:
If it's a low volume down bar, then imo it shows that in spite of distribution, price is stronger than expected will likely rally or retest the highs of the value area.
If it's a low volume bar up bar, then imo there's No Demand and I'd expect lower prices. (Given the background accumulation, I think it might be temporary and the below scenario might play out)
Since the sell-off from 4 was low volume, it has bull flag-esque possibilities. One potential scenario is the push lower goes around 1.35050 (which also serves as Phase C shakeout) where the old BUEC level acts as support and price springs higher.
The only thing that gives me pause are the 2 high volume down bars right after 10:30, there is definitely buying in those bars and the next 4 or 5 bars after because that is decent volume and price fails to continue down. But nevertheless, we are in a downtrend so I can’t see buying this chart just yet.
Tricky. My first thought was a secondary test of the UT that happened on high volume around 9:30. Then I started wondering if, to quote @josh, I was really comparing "apples to apples" or if that high volume was influenced by the US open. Then I worried that this instrument, the 6B, might not show the same volume spikes as the US equity markets at the open, or if these times were even US times (since OP appears to be in Baku).
Then I realized that I was probably overthinking everything (or was I?), and I should simply focus on what I see.
So, to answer the question, I think it's going to go down based on the price rejection of the last bar, the overall structure of LH and LL on the last few swings, and the fact that even though the last Wave (bottom panel) seems to show considerable effort for little reward, the individual bars show a slightly different picture, with larger moves on smaller volumes, ie ease of movement.
So, in other words, a secondary test of the UT that happened on high volumes around 9:30.
*EDIT - I think my terminology might be off a bit in referring to that move at 9:30 as an upthrust, but I'm not sure what else you would call that. Testing the high? Is that high enough for a test? I'm not even sure it matters. Have I mentioned that I occasionally overthink things?*
This has become a fun thread, and I would like to look at the charts and understand both the puzzles and the answers better, but, alas, I don't really understand Wyckoff beyond what you just pick up here and there.
Can someone suggest something simple and basic to help someone get more up to speed fairly easily? Mainly I just want to understand what people are doing here. I don't need true depth -- just less ignorance
I'm sure it takes time and application, but I'm mainly looking for the concepts so I can reconginze what people are saying.
Thanks for any help. Nice thread.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
If you want more, I also enjoyed this book, even if there were a few mis-translated phrases that made me scratch my head. There's a second part that combines these ideas with volume profile and order flow, as well.