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April 29th, 2024, 03:55 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
so the flat behavior is a coin-flip / decision-making branch
and seeing that we pointed lower on several indexes
we choose to err on the side of caution
//
that said looking at ultra t bonds they seem based
add to that a possibility of a twist operation
to tame short term for mid term easing
//
the second part is the china effect
seeing copper soy and fxi
while yen and ewj tilt
//
and finally the dollar
commodities fading
to curb inflation
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Best Threads (Most Thanked) in the last 7 days on NexusFi
April 30th, 2024, 12:59 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
dollar strength makes the carry and vs yen or even cad
energy is slumping and things pointing lower
will watch vol as yields maintain higher
May 1st, 2024, 12:06 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
usd/chf seems to be a decent dollar strength proxy maybe usd/mxn
having a harder time with usd/cad even with energy pressure
dollar basket is also buffered by eur and jpy crosses
//
retraces abound but expectations have poised instruments
something pivotal could transform outlooks
the trend yield -wise remains however
May 2nd, 2024, 03:06 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
waiting on nfp , but the general action is still constrained from fomc
especially with a lower gamma with the roundtrip yday into today
dollar weakness possibly vs trend and really positioned to react
//
could just wait as well, the safest strategy
May 3rd, 2024, 10:14 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
knee jerk post event and wait to see if there is continuation
standard unknown factors beforehand to be digest afterward
carry, fx are less enthused and rest is bouncy / flat save yields
May 6th, 2024, 10:42 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
late 2023 saw support breaks of top half carries vs jpy
observable long term on gbp, euro, nzd but only mid term aud, cad, chf, mxn
so the dollar basket is 50/50 balanced by crosses until the mid term catches up
//
the commodity linked fx like aud and cad are confirmed by metals and energy
resistance broke in late 2023 for crude and gold as well but not silver
the concerning part is that vol broke in 2020 fading ever since
//
short term vol did breach support but is now just hovering
mid term vol has not had conviction to breach lower
bonds broke out prior to breaching support
//
the mag7, part of qqq is the safety still
even this mid term broke support
so a pullback prior possibly
May 7th, 2024, 02:41 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
say the dollar either weakened or got stronger
the net change for indexes vs dollar would be a wash
however waiting for dips could take advantage of such adjustments
May 8th, 2024, 02:09 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
looks like the dollar is stable, pushing mild strength
stable is the key word along with rates and yen
last thing to check is the mag 7 comp
//
earnings checked out, even with a dip reaction
ongoing recovery w/ consumer based names
tech has also been able to maintain strength
//
dip is awaiting
May 9th, 2024, 11:05 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
well, strength on what should be weakness
including carries so slow accumulation
also keep in mind buyback season
//
watchin energy don't wanna ev yet
May 13th, 2024, 11:21 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
so european side carry broke earlier late last year
while the asian side more recently offering further tailwind
vix and yields are stuck as well as energy, dollar too, crypto minor
//
gme recently burst after being undervalued but still under pressure
Last Updated on June 27, 2024