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For what it worth.. here is my unprofessional analysis and opinion...
I think the Euro is being held up by professionals, iran news, and the price of oil. take a look at the price action for the last week. The price keeps oscillating around 1.30... By all rights it should be lower.... I think it will hang around 1.30 for a while longer...+/- 150 ticks. Once signifigant news comes out and the price crosses 1.28 or 1.32 then we shall see how strong it actually is.
If the news continues to be bad from across the pond the Euro could test 1.18 by the end of the year.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
I see having a lot of upside resistance given the areas of support being broken down although it did bounce off of last January's swing low. There will probably be many attempts to support it down here and could see a test of the 1.3140 area which I could definitely see rejection from this area. Today's gap up was basically a return to the scene of the crime from 12/28's big sell off. It'll be interesting to see what happens from up here as the market was up on no news of significance. We now have a nice sized gap down at 1.2966.
Nothing has been resolved in the EU or the US for that matter and more negative news could definitely provide more downside pressure. As I've said before, I could definitely see a test of around the 1.24 area.
I forgot to mention this; I listen and read a ton of news. I keep hearing these levels floated around along with these news topics in relation to the euro. When you hear the same thing over and over again from a lot of different sources its either true or it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy. In either case its wise to pay attention to what the mob is saying..
Thanks. Refreshing to see someone owning up to their prediction being wrong, rather then the usual behavior of most of pounding of chests when that prediction happens to be right, and being silent as a cricket when it's dead wrong. We should have a rule, for every post predicting the market, there should be an associated posted acknowledging the result.
This is why its always fun to trade with a few other people on IM, you make ur call, then u get praised or pounded. Trust me no one wants to look bad so we make sure our calls are thoroughly thought out, even if we re wrong lol!!!!!!!!!!!Makes slow days go by faster too.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
At the end of the day, no one can accurately predict where price will go on a consistent basis. It's best to look at the possibilities and react as they're developing.
I can't imagine chatting on IM while trying to put a trade on. The last thing I need during a setup is another thing to take care of. I can't figure out how the trading coaches / teachers trade while running a chat room.
Maybe if I had software that posted my orders and fills, and some voice recognition software that wrote what I said into IM instead of needing me to type it, then I could do it. But if someone started questioning my rationale, I'm sure it would blow my strategy execution to pieces.
LOL, trust me after you lose alot or trade alot or maybe both, you ll settle in. Just reading your response takes me back to the beginning days, I was like a owl, my eyes never moved from my charts,lol those days (hence always have stop orders attached to orders) ... And until you have no emotion and are relaxed I recommend you stay in Sim or demo mode, trust me, you ll thank me for this advice one day!