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After getting more familiar with the CCI chart, I really like the price information on it. Then I realized I had too much repeated information (made it quite crowded too) on the main one. As a result, I now use the regular Reversal bar indicator (not the one with High/Low prices) + removal of the SMAs (don't help my trading decision at all). I may get rid of the EMA line too since the EMAs on the CCI chart give me the trend direction.
How am I going to spend the afternoon hours? I plan to browse 1-2 threads to learn how others manage their trades esp money management/risk reward ratio.
Beth (I am trimming down my indicators ... + hopefully myself too .. )
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I closed my real account and continued watching out for Inside Bar set ups. There's one completed at 12:00 noon and I did not sim-trade it. Noon trades have not been my favorite (got burned LOL)!
There was one (third set up of today) at 1:15 pm and I placed a pair of OCO Stop orders (2-contract one). Sell stop got filled and the first PT was hit "quite" easily while the second one took "forever" and finally reached. Got lucky with a 2-tick slippage to my favor else the second contract might get stopped out (revised SL 1 tick in favor after 8 ticks). While the second contract was "struggling", I was thinking of adjusting the revised SL to 5-8 ticks. Maybe a sensible option IMHO.
I had not run the strategies on sim today. First, NJ may not be too overloaded (less chance of out-of-memory). Second, I had them on 2 different computers for almost a month (PT/SL @12/16 and 16/16). Enough sim-trade results to convince me that Inside Bar set up is highly profitable.
Another realization on why they have been outperforming me most of the time (even they traded all regular morning hours and ignored news)?!! They were programmed to be very consistent. They were happy with the winners and accepted the predetermined SL gracefully. No regret ..
I just reviewed my Futures trade logs (Aug to Nov 2009, Feb 2010 and Jun-Jul 2010) excl the sim ones. Over 70% of the Fridays I traded had been big losing days incl a few that wiped out the weekly gains while the remaining 30% 3-5 ticks winning ones.
I am not sure how can I break the spell IF it's a valid one?
1. No real trade tomorrow. Keep the gains over the weekend (take Nelson out for a nice lunch or dinner) and start fresh next week.
2. Do a real trade tomorrow based on the first Inside Bar set up (maximum SL 20) should it be a winner or loser .. at least keep 10 ticks for the week if it doesn't work out.
3. Do a real trade tomorrow ONLY IF I feel right .. There could be thousands of reasons SOH .. I am the boss LOL!
I only know that if the trade doesn't work out and I only keep 10 ticks for the week, there's one person who will be quite disappointed .. I'm not talking about myself ..
If it is me, I wouldn't draw any conclusions unless you have at least 100 trades to look at. Even then the question is what went wrong with these trades? If it comes down to not being able to read the market right, then sure, take Friday off! I usually don't trade Friday's, I think a lot of people don't trade Friday's for more or less similar reasons.
Sorry Mike a little clarification please. You or some don't trade Friday's because ?? the market is more challenging to read. Appreciate your tips. Thank you.
Has it anything to do with the fact that many institutionals close their positions to take position again at mondays? If so Monday should be an profitable day...
I don't usually trade Friday's because I've found that I don't do as well. I've never analyzed my trades on a per day of the week basis like you are doing, so my 'analysis' is just a gut feeling. I often tell my trading buddies that Friday's suck, etc.
But, I will trade if there is opportunity. I try to not exclude things like 'lunch', or in this case 'Friday', or even in some cases the 'overnight session'. Instead, I try to trade good price action, and avoid bad price action. Too many hard/fast rules just limit your opportunities instead of improving them.
My advice is that if you believe you are better off not trading Friday's, then why fight it? It would be like saying you are better off trading ES than CL, but you really want to trade CL. Why? Just do what you are good at.
Now if your sample size is too low or if you don't really believe in the results, then I wouldn't discount Friday just "because".
There are certainly patterns, like contract rollover day which is third Friday, triple or quad witching day, etc. Also regarding Monday's there is usually an influx of new long positions from retirement accounts at the beginning (first Monday) of each month, or so I've been told