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First everything you have written so far is quite relevant and in no way you should think that the counts that I am posting here are the right ones or the ones that should unfold (who am I anyway, just 1 pair of eyes, market will always go where it wants to, no matter what you can think or hope for). I have learned over the years that even if you think you have the perfect count, market can play tricks on you, so as long as a count has the basic guidelines of EW principles it can be considered as a valid one. I encourage anyone that wants to post their count here to do so, this is not a competition count thread it is one for sharing the way we see markets based on EW.
When I started trading I did not use EW and tried all sort of things and traded lots of markets and mostly 2 to 3 lots at most and I was not very succesfull at it. I then decided to study EW, that took me a few years part time as I will still working full time. When I finally started feeling comfortable I traded 2 lots then 4 at most I think 6 was the most I traded. Could I trade more ? Yes but for now I don't feel the need to do it as I feel comfortable that way. I mostly trade when I see possible end of wave 2 or B scenario as the 3C leg is always the most rewarding one I will occasionally trade corrective patterns as long as my indicators are showing strength in that direction.
Lastly I rarely try to make a correlation with EW and what is said in the newspaper or economics as I have seen too many times the market doing the opposite of what it was suppose to do based on these facts, of course it was not against EW. anyway most of the times when we are near these potential big reversals markets are often at 50/50 counts scenario so you need indicators to help you out and even then you need to pick your trades accordingly to low risk and high probabilities that is the only way you will survive the market.
Thanks again Larry. I think many will get some good use out of this thread. I hope others will decide to post thier counts or questions. Thanks for taking the time to respond
This last slow grind lower this last month really looks and feels like to me a Wave 4 retrace. Wave A is exactly the lenght of Wave C on this latest correction. My primary count is that we are starting a wave 5 up to new highs and then the carnage shall begin. It just doesn't have the characteristics of a wave 2 down.
Of course it could do anything, but I'd love to see others counts on this
i have problems...1. time frames 2 braking them down into smaller ones 3 flats 4 x waves... i took a trail on motive wave ...the tools were cool but did not solve the problem.
For me, the timeframes go up and down slightly as volume and range increase and decrease. For example, right after the Nov 8 election, volume and range was huge and even a 2 min chart was challenging to find good risk opportunities. Fast forward to the week before holidays and last week between holidays and a 10 min chart looks like that 2 min chart from 2 months ago.
A few books recommend doing multiples of 4x and 5x between timeframes. I personally prefer 3x. For example a 3 min and 10 min chart. Or a 2 min and 5 min chart.
Flat patterns can require patience because the C leg can expand to 2x the height of the A leg. It just takes patience to let the C leg unfold to the size it wants to.
Use trend channels with a 50% line and you can often guess the geometry of the completed pattern as the B leg terminates.
Use a good oscillator that you are very practiced and familiar with and can read like a book. That will help you determine timing.
For me, price character (overlap between swings, overlap between bars) is the most important thing. The oscillator patterns then confirm what I am interpreting. If I can get price character correct (corrective vs. motive) just by looking at overlap and using a process of elimination, I can be prepared for how many swings are left in a corrective pattern.
X waves are just a convention for labeling. If you can identify a structure with a corrective character, then there should be balance to the wave in the direction of trend. The corrections against trend just get grouped into X waves - and they can be steep in price sometimes. There should almost always be a strong centering move, even in a corrective structure. From there the beginning and ending waves usually balance in proportional price range and oscillator momentum before the next motive wave begins. Look for and anticipate Price and Momentum Balance in a structure first around a centering move. The labeling is just convention to keep track of things.