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The funny part about today was that I knew I was over confident and I didn't follow my rules and I paid dearly for it. I made 10 trades 3 winners and 7 losers, and ended the day down -114 ticks. Out of the 10 trades I made 4 of them where discipline trades and 3 where winning trades. This is a huge eye opener and the question is WHY? Why would I self sabotage myself when I have been trading so well and up for the week and the month I have been trading the CL market. The bigger question is, what am I going to do about it and make sure I don't do this again? I believe the answer is focus on the 3 winning trades that I was completely disciplined and waited for my setup that interest me the most. Focusing on a positive would be more beneficial than on the undisciplined actions IMO. Positive reinforcement is always better than focusing on the negative. I'm still slightly up for the week and now slightly down for the first month of trading the CL. So moving forward, I need to go back to what makes me a winning trader. I will post my chart soon.
I had a busy day with a contractor doing repairs around the house so I missed a lot of great trade opportunities. And it did affect my focus some, luckily I only took one undisciplined trade that only cost me 1 tick.
I got to be honest here and say that my thinking was that this is the last trading day of the month and even with yesterdays disastrous day I was still plus for the week, not a lot but had made money and I didn't want to close the week and month with a big lost. So I was very conservative with my targets.
I made 5 trades for +27 ticks including commish. 2 winners and 3 losers, the first trade was completely speculative and undisciplined. It did move 7 ticks in my favor and I just didn't like it so I got out with little damage and glad I did -1. Then I had a nice winner for +8 +12 my second target was set at 20 ticks and price moved within 1 tick from hitting 20, so I jumped out on the way down. The third trade was sort of ok, not my best entry got out with little damage -2. Right there and then I knew I was not completely focused and needed to walk away, but I walked away too long and missed the nice bear move that dropped 100 ticks. Oh well, what can yo do, but wait for the next opportunity.
The fourth trade I was just not comfortable with it and I felt that I was pushing things so I bailed out of a small winning trade -2. And the last trade I liked the DB off of the S2 area and the HH HL on higher volume. Price really struggled to move higher and I fought with myself to stay in the trade because we had some sideways trading. So I confirmed with myself that I followed my rules and that it was a good setup. So that was the deciding factor to stay in the trade win or lose. And it was a nice trade despite the struggle for price to move higher and it hit 19 ticks and started to come back at me so I closed the trade at +13. Had I stayed in I would have hit my 20 tick target and a lot more. It goes to show you that the little voice in your head I call a demon can really rob you from being successful. I will post my chart later as soon as I get the image email that I sent. For some reason Yahoo as been taking forever to send my image emails, sorry!
It was a slow boring day and waited to the end of the day to make +31 ticks with two trades. The only other trade I would have made was at the 11:20 bar, but I had walked away and missed it. The first trade price was drifting up and broke the swing high, so I kept a tight stop and price moved 9 ticks in my favor and came back down. I didn't like it so I jumped out +1 +2 and then finally price broke the EMA and went short for +10 +20. And that was the whole long day.
Day's like today I need to have more patience. I made 7 trades for -37 ticks.
First trade 11:05 bar the 10:05 bar was a DT off the HOD with three LH LL and closed below the EMA. This setup is one of my rules, but I may need to re-evaluate this setup so close to the EMA or have a better understanding of the market context. Price did move 6 ticks in my favor then stopped me at -12.
Second trade price broke the sideways channel with increase volume, but did not continue going up and not being focused and realizing that it had hit the HOD I went long and price retraced back to the EMA instead of the continuing going long -7
Third trade I took a shot at a triple top with a tight stop on the 12:45 bar. -3 -2
Fourth trade after price broke the HOD and took my small stop out on the last trade I went long and cover my first target and my second target was too far out to get hit. +8 +1
Fifth trade was not really a rule breaker but close price just closed at the EMA with two LH LL. At this point I was getting doubts that this was a good trade and when price went against me I was thinking PB and reversed on this trade like a dumb ass. -5 Had I looked at the 15 minute chart I prolly would have stayed in this trade and with complete discipline this would have been my last trade for the day and recovered and ended up b/e for the day.....I had copied and pasted parts of the Patience and Practice thread that Tiger Trader had posted and taped it right in front of me and read it like three times this morning. You think it would help huh?
Six trade was the reversal of the last trade -8 -10 slippage
And finally the best trade of the day was on the same bar as trades 5 and 6 LOL. Funny shit, I took 9 ticks of heat but stayed true to the game this time and hit both targets for +10 +20.
Out of the 7 trades I had 2 winners and 5 losers, only if I can get the patience and stay discipline to wait for my highest probability setups I can become a profitable trader. I will try again tomorrow.
I made 5 trades today 1 loser, 1 wash, 1 b/e and 2 winners for a +23 tick day including commish. After the first two trades I felt like I have been reading the charts all wrong and/or just reading too much into them. So I settled down and went back to what I feel I know best.
I wanted to start my day earlier and get some of the action in the early morning which I missed a good trade on the 7:25 AM EST bar. And even a short off the DT off the 8:05 bar. So I made my first trade below the EMA which looked like a PB for a second drive off the DT I got filled on first target for +8 and then stopped at -8 for the second target which made it a wash.
Second trade which was a long from 3 HH HL but got whipsawed for -12
Third trade came off the DT from the 10:45 bar for +8 +15
Fourth trade was a short after the 11:10 bar broke the low off the previous four bars and both targets covered for +8 +20
And the fifth trade was undisciplined and as soon as I pulled the trigger I realized the DT from the 11:10 bar. So I got out b/e. However, it would have been a nice winner.
I honestly think I do better without any pivots or any other indee's besides the volume and the 20 EMA as a guide only. So I am just going to use these for now and make my trades based off PA. Still learning and will improve.
Tough pickens today, but managed to get +30 with 3 trades. First trade was a short from a DT off the HOD and I had the right direction, The execution was a little late and kept a tight stop which was prolly not the best idea because mkt went down almost 30 ticks. But the overall trend was bullish I keep a tight stop so I ended with +7 -9
Second trade was a long off the rejection bar that touched the EMA and got filled at +8 +20 and the last trade I shorted after 3 doji's that had bullish rejection tails and then a strong bear bar below the EMA. I took 22 ticks of heat to get +8 -1. I had to question myself would I had stayed in this trade this long had I been trading with a cash acct? However, even though I have only been trading the CL market for three weeks now I will not go to a cash acct until I am profitable for 60 days, so I treat this sim trading just like I'm trading live cash. I decided to stay in because everything looked bearish to me and buyers at the time didn't seem strong enough to take price higher. I guess I may have gotten lucky getting what I did out of this trade.
The magenta arrow was an entry I called out at the close of the 10:55 bar in my mind that I would have taken if was down or b/e at this point. Some may question why take this trade only if I was down or at b/e and the answer is after I am profitable a decent amount I get very selective on my next trades and protective of my profits. And I was looking to take the long at the 14:20 bar but it was too late in the day and again right at the HOD. It looks like it would have been a nice winner after closing at 2:30 EST. I am happy with my results especially with the horizontal market we had all day.
I have taken this weekend to really look at the whole picture of how I am progressing and where I am psychologically, knowledge and skill level. My observation has shown me that I am impatient at times, I have let winners turn into losers or b/e. And I at times have been undisciplined and have not always followed my rules. So I will make some changes with my rules, money management and how I journal in futures.io (formerly BMT).
I have decided to change the way I keep my journal in futures.io (formerly BMT). This should not be about manifesting my trades and/or results. This journal should be about how am I doing as a trader? Am I progressing? What am I doing wrong? What am I doing correct? Are my thoughts and feelings well enough to be trading at all? What is my mindset? I keep a very through spreadsheet journal of all my trades that I look at weekly which is my guidance as to where I am with my trading. I will attach a sample spreadsheet if anyone would like to use it. It is nothing special, but what is most helpful for me. I plan on trading my cash account after the holiday season right after January 1st and start a new journal as "My Live CL Trading" or something similar to that.
Psychologically, my biggest foe is being impatient. This has lead me to make early entries before a bar closes especially if there is a spike bar. However there will be entries I will take if the bar breaks a HH or LL.
I am looking to make only 2 to 3 of the best trade setups based on my rules per day. This will be a rule breaker if I make anymore than 3 trades maximum per day. I have tightened my second target from 30 ticks to 20 ticks. On range days there may be one probability that one setup that runs for 30+ ticks, but most often a 20 tick target is achievable. If the first target at 10 ticks is filled I will not move my stop, but I will not let a winning trade turn into a loser. I will closely watch the Dom and close the trade, if I feel that it has no chance to continue in my direction and hit my second target then I will close the trade for a few ticks of profit or at worst case b/e.
Looking back the past few weeks my observation is that my strengths have been my execution and my weakness has been obviously patience with trade management in close second place. So for the coming week I will practice my patience and keep my winners from turning into losers.
Looking forward to you making these changes and continuing to learn and expand your trading. The journal is a great way to do that, especially if you focus on the aspects you've mentioned.
I stayed within my 3 trade limit, but not sure if I like it. It really adds a lot of pressure to be too selective and with that said I have passed on good setups because I didn't feel good about them. But this is not totally a bad thing. I will continue with this rule and see if it really suits me and is in my best interest. The first trade I'm not sure if I hesitated to pull the trigger or if it was negative slippage. Fear overcame me and I closed the trade at b/e after it went 5 ticks in my direction and then 3 ticks against me. It did turn out to move 25 ticks in my favor, bummer. I had one trade where I broke some rules as far as pulling the trigger too early and did not manage the trade all too well, but I did make +9 ticks. The last trade was executed perfectly and managed very well, first target hit for +10 and price hesitated to continued so I closed the second position at +12. Total results for the day including commissions +30. Not my daily goal, but a positive outcome is more important.
I'm just thinking about this 3 trade rule and I am looking at it like a golf pro giving me lessons and changing my swing. It just takes practice and time to get comfortable with it and adjust. So we'll see how the rest of this week goes with it.
It's all about consistency, and to be consistent requires discipline. So my suggestion is focus less on 'what' you are being consistent about, focus more on just being consistent. At least in the beginning. Once you can demonstrate to yourself that you have the ability to be consistent at following your rules, then fine tuning the rules is much simpler and easier to measure and track.
I also advocate not making more than 2 changes per 2 weeks, this includes everything --- new disciplines to focus on, new indicator, new chart color, new chart size, anything at all...