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I was posting some thoughts on an ABCD trade in another post and have realized 2/3 of the est day's range would be the 50% retracement cut-off and above this the trade is likely to fail.
On 15 pts 2/3rds = 10pts.
So leg one should be 10 points or less for a 15 pt day
and
12 points for an 18 pt day
I'm not even sure if it will bounce or not - just a level to be aware of.
With Amazon falling and Facebook I would imagine the Fang long time holders may think of stepping to the sidelines.
There are a lot of fund managers who haven't been around long enough to be through a big melt-down (those who have only traded since Mar 2009) with the govt buying all the 10% drops since that time. Even that low was only made through govt buying that stopped it from going lower.
They may have trouble switching to the short side.
The last time I checked, both ‘98 and ‘08 most of stocks went to around 50% or more discount. If we actually going to have a crash, it might not be another 50% discount but for sure drooling thinking about it. Myself been saving money to get ready if we have another housing bubble, not hoping too much also since i’m ok with rental now.