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Dan Gramza measures strength by how easily a market moves in one direction vs the other. If a market moves down 10 points and takes 5 bars to do it, and then reverses approximately the same number of points but takes 10 bars to do it, then that would be considered downward strength.
Monpere is it that simple? I am not sure but I am always open to new ways of thinking. But one way to get sorts out of the market is to entice them to go short they then build liquidity for you to trade into. They accelerate the move with their buy stops which provides real liquidity to buy when the market returns to prior area where there was resistance.
It's his theory. It makes sense to me under normal market conditions. But even if the cause is due to the type of market manipulation you mention, during the event the strength is still to the down side whether artificial or not. Even if it is a ruse, depending on your trading method and time frame, you can still possibly take advantage of that manipulation.
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6E still appears to be at an indecisive holding area and has remained in the same range for at least 4 days. Today's low stopped right at Feb 1st's low which held the market two times today. The 2nd was followed with a frantic short covering run that brought price back to the middle of the range.
At this point, you could make a case for both bullish and bearish possibilities which is consistent to what I've read so far on the latest posts here. Greece could (probably will) default and cause more market disruption and send the market way lower. Then again, maybe some of that is already priced in and the market rallies on confirmation breaking above the bearish trend line and Nov.'s swing low.
CME released an interesting article on their blog today discussing the potential for lower prices and provided an interesting snapshot of the current Put option average open interest with 1.25 being the clear stand out with the second being 1.20 and third being parity! Pretty crazy to think that but if things get worse, it can happen.