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Back to the Future

  #291 (permalink)
 
forgiven's Avatar
 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nijia trader
Broker: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Trading: ym es
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Days
Posts: 862 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 287
Thanks Received: 581


BTTFT Michael View Post
Thanks, Forgiven. After speaking with Mike about comments like this - I've been asked to remain positive, and constructive...and add value to the community's members wherever possible. To avoid being cynical and toxic....building, and uplifting instead. In the spirit of Mike's request, I thank you for your comment.

I am constrained (willingly having accepted those constraints) to posts which are not self-promoting. As such, keep in mind the following:

"in the morning RTH around 10 a.m. est and 10:30 a.m. est are time cycles where the market turns 60% of the time."

This statement leaves some questions - ie, what are the entry and exit criteria? Are you suggesting people enter at candle close on a 1 minute CL chart for example at 10am? What kind of stop? Target? The ATR of CL this morning (one of the more popular futures markets) is around 15 ticks every minute. So when you say "around" 10am and "around" 10:30 - if you're off 2-3 bars (assuming you're close) that requires a stop of 30-45 ticks per contract...far too large of a risk for most newer traders with a small account.

It begs the question - are there methods at people's disposal that can distill the time down to a specific minute bar?

Todd Mitchell taught a course that outlined similar times, I paid $1,500 for it back in the day. It "taught" something similar, to the effect of "look for the market to reverse directions around 2:30, unless it doesn't - in which case it will continue trending until the close". Other traders I met confessed it was very ambiguous and had that "can never be wrong" element of marketing to it.

I fear statements like "turns around 10 o'clock and 10:30" potentially bear the same hallmarks of that statement - being broad enough that a turn within 10 minutes of that time could be claimed as a "success". It's hard to build a trading plan around something generalized like that, I find. I can't comment on the technique I teach in here, but if you'd like to ping me in a PM, I can suggest some techniques to you (very simple, very manual) that you can use to narrow down your window.

Much respect - Michael

Any trading software that sell for 3000 or so with no trail is going to get some ugly commits , when the owner of it can not make money with it . Is that fair to you .. no . Is it fair to sell it with out a trail..no Any cycle software program will brake down on small time frames . When its used on longer time frames , like Gann used, it works much better . Most software vendor have moved away from your bussiness model . They moved in the direction of leasing it by the month for 150.00 a month or so with no trail , that bussiness model works much better for the custmer and vendor . I would respectly point you in that direction . Trying to defend the old way is unlikley to work as well over time . If you were the end user paying for the somftware , would you want a trail ? Would you be leaving bad reviews if the software was a bust for you ? 150 .00 a month or so , quit if you do not like it . There will not be much said about that . Look around at other software vendor , it is now the industry standard . Even if it does not work for most traders , you will make more money .

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