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Thanks for your open words. It is true that things since half a year are upside down. The main thing for me: It is touching the heart and center of Europe: namely we European inhabitants!
Means exploding costs for refugees, integration, teaching people coming here to live and look for themselves: as language is a first big hurdle. Then very different characters and openness for other living style, customs etc.. Not speaking about integration of children in the western scheme of schooling.
The crisis of what we are seeing now is very different from Ukrainian to European. And will last quite a long time - as the Ukrainian refugees can NOT go back soon to live as before. This needs at least a one generation - if ever.
Destroying every house in a country aside is really not the way to go. Means that is eliminating basic needs which can not be reset to zero in a week.
That said is the loss of parts of Europe that need zillions of money to react - which our western system hasn't foreseen.
Just a view to energy in western RICH countries have already a dark shadow in front of the threats that are happening around us.
To sum it up: these votes are not off track. Because they are influencing the core European markets (+) in many ways. Just a lot of people are not yet aware. We need to have open eyes for the developments during this quite complicated time.
Results so far: the EUR has lost 20% in one year. Copper, Gold, oil (+), down tremendously. Missing equipment like electronics, medicine etc. in the supply chain, food, harbors and airports not functioning are the most hindering a development everyone was counting for in within this decade.
And now back to the DAX - We have a tenfold complex influence in the development on companies listed in an index that are not easily described. That means: Trading models might change quite a bit!
ECB decision on interest rate - THURSDAY
The 13k line (DAX) was hit yesterday but price is already lower again
Many companies starting to show the half year results - as always the strong ones are coming first - those that show up late do have the more negative results. This of course influences the index quite a lot. So one can 'feel' the direction - here the DAX - when the last numbers are coming in.
My trading has temporarily halted - as the volumes are lower, the volatility less predictable and the system rules not giving a good path.
So reducing the risk is part of a good trading plan.
The euro area is about to see its first interest rate hike in eleven years. To curb high inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) wants to raise key interest rates again after years of ultra-loose monetary policy. The central bank's decisions will be announced in the afternoon, for the first time at the new time of 2.15 pm. If the ECB Governing Council follows the path announced in June at its meeting in Frankfurt am Main, the key interest rate would rise from zero per cent to 0.25 per cent in a first step, and the negative interest rate for commercial banks' parked funds at the ECB would be halved from minus 0.5 per cent to minus 0.25 per cent.
The number is out: 0.5% (instead of 0.25%). For the short moment...
Said that this will halt the galloping inflation in the EU. (Lagarde)
Of course this is WRONG!
The inflation is rocketing up. The industry has not one problem but extraordinary many. Which means the production within Europe has a lack never seen since decades.
On the other hand there are no short solutions at hand.
No need to replay all the problems at hand since 3 years.
Just to mention that normality has driven away.
For all.
ECB needs to take out liquidity off the markets. Quickly. The flooding was economically a disaster. No relief in sight so far. Just rising interest for the next years.
The markets are a measure for the near future. This is important to know by heart for every trader.
We will see a vivid autumn in the markets - where longtime heavy weights will struggle and newcomers might find new ground.
"The signs of an impending recession are increasing. The mood in the executive suites of the German economy deteriorated significantly in July, as shown by the business climate index of the Munich Ifo Institute published on Monday. The barometer, which is based on a monthly survey of around 9000 companies and is considered the most important leading indicator for the German economy, fell to 88.6 points, down from 92.2 points in June.
Consequences?
This is the lowest value since July 2020. "High energy prices and impending gas shortages are weighing on the economy," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. "Germany is on the threshold of recession."
All above said you can read in this thread since nearly ONE year
To underline this development see the chart (building a "W") - from the source of the number crunching IFO Institute in Germany: actual
German economy stagnates in second quarter
29.07.2022, 10:06 o'clock
The German economy is treading water. Gross domestic product stagnated in the second quarter of the current year compared to the previous quarter, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecasts for US and global economic growth - for this year and next. Two days later it is official: the US economy has shrunk for the second quarter in a row.
The task of identifying and determining recessions in the US falls to a little-known committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). According to the NBER, a recession is "a significant decline in economic activity that extends across the economy and lasts for more than a few months". writes the academic institution on its website.
Main problem is in the timing, when the start of a recession is determined. This can be much later with a 'look back', which complicates actuality. Which means a recession in USA is treated differently than by other countries!
What does this mean for Europe?
Let's take Germany as an example: the last two quarters were without growth. The term is 'stagnation'. No growth, but rising prices, strained supply chains, poor outlook, over-ageing, declining consumption and a weak currency is a clear indication of a recession.
The definition of recession for EU countries: a shrinking economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
The import of a recession
If a country has a strong economic exchange of goods, services and interlocking currencies, then economic power is always 'imported' through price-setting. This takes place simultaneously, as currencies, interest rates, etc. are included in the pricing. In other words, if one country is in recession, there is a high probability that the economically linked country is also in recession.
The exchange of information is quite up-to-date today with monthly figures.
Therefore, the "retroactive" recession data in the US is not relevant. At least not for us traders, who partly work with minute data.
With material of the German "manager magazin" and own findings.
GFIs1
Summary:
US had 2 quarters of shrinking economy: does not speak of a recession yet
EU had 2 quarters of stagnation but lower EUR, economic threats, rising inflation etc. - and IS in recession
Well, the dear Americans and their non-government and other institutions controlled by their Big Money Boys are always known for surprises of any kind and manner.
Will not go into the institution, under control of mostly NGO money, which has simply redefined a few years ago what is health and how to redefine vaccinations now, so that the old, clear and absolutely reliable guidelines now simply no longer had to be observed. Finally, the, however one names them, had to make the huge profit because they have now made and continue to do.
Now one has apparently found a new field which is to be drilled off, along with war weapons deliveries in billions high. Billions which should be better invested in the own state and not in a corrupt country far away from the homeland.
This new field is now called: We have no "recession". The so far absolutely clear and valid definition of what a recession was for decades has now been defined overnight as no longer useful.
