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Best to watch it from far - means in the daily chart - to get where the journey might head. Some explanation here with a chart and further in some important points about industry during and after Corona.
In the chart we can see that a first down given a reversal. Watching the Kumo for the next weeks you can see a steep down movement that blocks price from "wading through". The down will start from end of month. That might lead to a next wave down which I assume to be lower than previous low because of the thickening Kumo above the price. Such leads to lower lows - so 8k might be easily taken out.
View from the economic perspective:
• industry production, transport, goods movement, fairs / expos, travel and holiday with hotels & car renting etc. have been harshly reduced, some of them halted totally
• companies are in trouble - especially in liquidity terms
• some companies will get out of the market with all the hard costs that are not eliminated during the governmental pause
• Even the helicopter money for people and special support programs for companies will not pay the damage done
• Problems to get easily some money plus a hassle of papers to submit will threat the many small companies
• When the block down will stop, the normality will not be back easily - the tempo to re-establish the normal pace of production, transport etc. - everyone needs to recover from that pause and start from near 0!
• the unemployment rate will rise sharply very soon - as all the companies need to reduce their expenses
List not complete
Conclusion - this crisis will have a long arm into the future. Thus the financial markets will stay longer in the lows we will see in the next weeks (highly probable) as there might be even a second wave down to erase more historic wins.
As one says that a child burned by the fire many investors in the markets as well and "gamblers" will stay away from the trading. Means lower volumes will be ahead. Bound with lower liquidity.
development not consistent...
Price seems to close first gap above
Good trades!
edit
I: with a SL of 120 points the trade could have survived
This is the result of the high vola in these weeks
II: IFO numbers this morning showed a crash - from 96 points in February down to 86,1% in March which is lowest since 2009
III: The German support package for companies is discussed today in parliament. It is nearly clear that the total sum will not be enough...
IV: with the SL of 120pts (see I) the close @ 9617 would have given 433 points. For today the risk was high with the ongoing news during the trade. So nothing really lost - not every highest high and lowest low can be taken anyway.
Next time better. Enough profits in the last weeks to cover those small losses
Normally you start at 10:30 on IFO day. Can I ask why today 10:00 was the entry time?
Thanks,
Dennis
Normally yes - but with high up gap and announcement day I have some overruling special rules that show different start and end time. Today you were good with 10:30
This morning things were clear: just a reversal on the first IB candle. Direction short.
Then in last 90 seconds a overrule came in that said - long.
Such a high level rule in this case I had just 2 times in 8 years.
So I dropped it for Fridays.
Of course the rule combinations are not really long tested as such high vola rarely occurs.
For sure clear when a single 30m candle can make 300 points or even the double...
As written in my rule sheet: "in case of uncertainty: take the normal rule. If still not sure
then stay at the sidelines."
