kevinkdog 

There are various methods to give you guidance on when a strategy was broken or was breaking. For example, maybe if you encountered a drawdown that was beyond the maximum historical drawdown during backtest, that might be an indication of failure. As far as your last statement, I think you might be underestimating how difficult trading is. I don't know of any real money trader who can just "sit back and wait for big money." And I know a lot of successful (and unsuccessful) traders. I know a lot of fake traders who claim it is easy, who throw out comments like "oh, do you need more money from trading? It is simple to make more money, just trade 10, 20 or 50 contracts instead of 1 or 2." To me, trading is the hardest way to make easy money.

Thank you Kevin for the response.

I agree with you 1000% on this "To me, trading is the hardest way to make easy money."

kevinkdog 

To me, trading is the hardest way to make easy money.

Hello kevinkdog,

Yes, but Kevin, you been running systems for long time and have about +20 years of testing data. Surely it should be easy for you to get filthy rich by now in systems traders or teach other how to get filthy rich by now with systems trading.

I just think, and I doubt I am wrong, there is no reason to work hard building 200 systems, sale those systems or get rich man. I know you want to be diversified with alot of algos, but that take too long to get rich.

I should be able to hire you right now, and 100% confidence you will make me successful trader. 1000% confidence. And if you say build 30 systems and run them, you going to scare me off man.

goodoboy 

Hello kevinkdog, Yes, but Kevin, you been running systems for long time and have about +20 years of testing data. Surely it should be easy for you to get filthy rich by now in systems traders or teach other how to get filthy rich by now with systems trading. I just think, and I doubt I am wrong, there is no reason to work hard building 200 systems, sale those systems or get rich man. I know you want to be diversified with alot of algos, but that take too long to get rich. I should be able to hire you right now, and 100% confidence you will make me successful trader. 1000% confidence. And if you say build 30 systems and run them, you going to scare me off man.

Not sure how to respond here, you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about trading, what it means to be a successful trader, your odds of success, etc. "1000% confidence" of success, really?

If you running 30 strategies scares you off, that is a good warning sign that trading (or at least algo trading) is not for you (as we have discussed privately).

You are looking for the Holy Grail of Trading it seems. You will never find it.

kevinkdog 

Not sure how to respond here, you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about trading, what it means to be a successful trader, your odds of success, etc. "1000% confidence" of success, really? If you running 30 strategies scares you off, that is a good warning sign that trading (or at least algo trading) is not for you (as we have discussed privately). You are looking for the Holy Grail of Trading it seems. You will never find it.

Hello Kevin,

Lol, I am just having fun with you Kevin.

You already told me the holy grail and I believe you.

But, Kevin, come on buddy. You been in this game for along time and you have alot of experience.

You KNOW how to make a trader successful sir, without failure. And its not with no 30 strategies. maybe 5 max. Nobody can not afford no 30 strategies.

You should be at a point where you can take a trader and put money in his pocket in the next 4 years, correct, 100% confidence, guaranteed.

goodoboy 

You KNOW how to make a trader successful sir, without failure.

Misconception #1

goodoboy 

And its not with no 30 strategies. maybe 5 max.

Misconception #2

goodoboy 

Nobody can not afford no 30 strategies.

Misconception #3

goodoboy 

You should be at a point where you can take a trader and put money in his pocket in the next 4 years, correct, 100% confidence, guaranteed.

Misconception #4

goodoboy 

For example, the system you displayed, it did not fail.

Misconception #5

goodoboy 

looks good to me. You stopped it, why not let it run forever. ALL in or ALL nothing.

Misconception #6

goodoboy 

When does at system trader go all in or just keep building systems forever and forever? I am not sure you are giving all the secret the sauces.

Misconception #7


I respect your opinion, but I am not going to try and change your mind on these 7 items, all of which I disagree with.

kevinkdog 

Misconception #1 Misconception #2 Misconception #3 Misconception #4 Misconception #5 Misconception #6 Misconception #7 I respect your opinion, but I am not going to try and change your mind on these 7 items, all of which I disagree with.

Hello Kevin,

I am very very very sure Misconception #1, you are agree with. You may not want to say it on public forum, but I know, you know something that guarantees a trader success. It may not be the type of success the trader wants to hear, but I know you know the secret!

If @kevinkdog wants to respond to the latest post by @goodoboy, that would be fine, since it was addressed to him, but then I am going to ask everyone to just drop this particular conversation, at least in this thread.

There would be nothing wrong with continuing the topic in another thread that is set up for it, but please remember that the topic of this thread is "Time to Give Up," and let it return to its original focus.

It's OK that the thread drifted away from its topic for a while, as threads tend to do, but let's let it get back to what it was intended for, which is a topic of considerable importance in itself.

Thanks.

Bob.

kevinkdog 

I have, but the hurdle to convince me to trade it again is very high, and the psychological costs many times are overwhelming. Imagine that your significant other cheats on you. How willing will you be to take them back? And how much would you trust them the 2nd time around? Those psychological issues make it tough for most people (self included) to trade a strategy live again after it has cost you money...

generaly there are only 2 strategies . Trend Flowing and reverision to the mean . Do you create all your own or use other peoples , after you have tweaked and backtested them your self ? Blickbird has some canned strategies that can be added to give a starting point for example . It would seem that would be easier that trying to recreate the wheel so to speack .

forgiven 

generaly there are only 2 strategies . Trend Flowing and reverision to the mean . Do you create all your own or use other peoples , after you have tweaked and backtested them your self ? Blickbird has some canned strategies that can be added to give a starting point for example . It would seem that would be easier that trying to recreate the wheel so to speack .

@forgiven, just to remind you, the request was to drop this line of discussion and let this thread return to its original topic, which was the important "Time to Give Up."

So please, don't follow through on this topic here. In another thread, where it fits better, then it would be fine.

Thanks.

Bob.

People want to give up because they don't have competence.
They don't have competence because they don't have confidence.
They don't have confidence because they don't have positive expectancy trading system.
They don't have positive expectancy trading system because they don't have clear signals and effective position sizing/money mgmt/trade lifecycle mgmt technique (scaling, pyramiding, hedging.)

Now why is it so difficult (deceptively) to have clear signal generation & proper sizing/scaling/hedging technique?