Revised target on other side of hole in the volume ladder.

Closed trade on new VIX weakness as well as an end of the weak VIX correlation.

On the edge of a bias flip. Trade is at adxvma and w-vwap.
Correlated markets pointing to strength in ES except for euro dollar. But 3 out of 4 is not bad support for a long ES.
I'd just like to see it clear the w-vwap first before going long. It's Friday and next week is FOMC rate hike decision. Will market want to go long and stay that way into the weekend? I'd be surprised but I have to trade what's in front of me.

Trying the short side one more time. Struggling to go above w-vwap. Renewed VIX rally and divergence.

revised target

closed trade after price hovered just above my target for a while. I wanted to capture the profit this time after what happened this morning.

This chart tells the story of a traders plight.

Morning trade from 9:59 - 10:50 shows how the trade was in the money and ended up about break even. I was looking for a bigger move and was willing to tolerate the price to come back to the d-vwap, but no further after having been in the money. I would have been better off closing that trade at the prior day open line. However using those lines earlier in the week proved to be a mistake so i'm now not even paying attention to them.

Afternoon trade 12:47 shows how instead of waiting for my target to get hit, or even having a target at the D-vwap or better I closed the trade for fear of a repeat of the morning trade. But this time price moved further to the D-vwap.

Looks like found support at D-vwap.



And VIX looks good



Could we bounce? Not taking the trade because

1. Under the w-vwap and adxvma. No longs.
2. 10year T up.

This is what happens when you try to do something outside your trading plan. You get burned.
I tried to get cute and scalp a few ticks to the short side just before the market close. The market had been in barbwire chop for a while and I thought one more barb wire bar down would be a high probability. But with the close fast approaching market forces where actually likely to cause the pattern to discontinue.
More valuable lessons learned on sim.

lesson learned...