Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

CL – Crude Oil

Oil traded lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle.



NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas was higher again today poking its head above the 61.8% retracement level but could not hold above this level posting a candle with an upper shadow.



KC - Coffee

Coffee’s run up ended today finishing the day lower and posting a bearish engulfing candle.



GC – Gold

Gold traded much lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle and reinforcing my view that my previous trade entry was the wrong decision. I was lucky to escape from that one without any damage.

I was stopped out of Soybean Oil today for a loss.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded back down through the 200 SMA today posting a bearish full bodied candle.



HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46

Daily Comment: Hogs were lower today trading down through the minor 61.8% retracement of the recent range and posting a bearish full bodied candle. This may be a good area to add another contract.



ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3412
Exit Price: $0.3323
Trade Grade: 2.5/5

Trade Comment: No real issues with the trade with all rules followed. It would have been better to get on board at the break of the 200 SMA rather than the 61.8% retracement level as it provides more room to hold the trade though any corrective periods.

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil continued lower today trading back down through the 61.8% retracement level and posting a bearish candle.



SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1989 risking $683
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640

Daily Comment: Sugar opened back above the 61.8% retracement level and continued higher but finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. The trade thesis still looks ok at this stage.



Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas was higher again today surpassing the 61.8% retracement level and triggering a buy signal.

No trades today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars were sharply lower after Yellen’s speech posting a new low for the move and a bearish full bodied candle. I will look to continue building this position.



HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46

Daily Comment: Hogs were sharply higher on the open after strong export data finishing the day higher and posting a bullish full bodied candle. Whilst below the 40 SMA I am happy to stick with this trade.



SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1983 risking $660
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640

Daily Comment: Sugar re-tested the 61.8% retracement level during the session but bounced from this level to finish the day slightly higher and post a candle with a lower shadow.

Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas traded both higher and lower today finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive candle. I looked at entering the trade when prices were testing the 61.8% retracement level but held off as adding another position would add too much leverage to my account at the moment and I am also wary of rallies supported by potential weather events as the trade can quickly turn if the event does not materialise.



ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil traded both higher and lower today finishing the day practically unchanged and posting an indecisive candle.



GC – Gold

Gold initially rallied during Yellen’s speech trading back up to the congestion of short and medium term moving averages but prices were unable to hold these levels reversing to finish the day practically unchanged and posting a candle with a long upper shadow.



CL – Crude Oil

Oil rallied back up to the 61.8% retracement level today before reversing to finish the day practically unchanged posting a candle with a long upper shadow.

Trades for the week:

- Entered and exited a Long position in Soybean Oil.
- Exited my Long position in Gold.
- Entered a Long position in Sugar.

I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and closed trades.

GE - Eurodollar

Eurodollars traded above and below the 200 SMA during the week before breaking out to the downside on Friday after the Fed conference. The price action on Friday suggests the break of the 200 SMA is credible and I am now looking to further add to this position.



HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs prices fell sharply from Monday to Thursday before strong export data was released causing prices to jump sharply on Friday. Prices are still trading below the falling 40 SMA and the downtrend is still intact at this stage.



SB – Sugar

Sugar broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range on Monday and with the absence of Wednesday was able to close above this level for the rest of the week. A close above the 20.80 level is required before concluding that the uptrend is likely to resume.



GC – Gold

Gold broke the 40 SMA this week and a retracement back to the 100 SMA or further is possible.



ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil continued to hold the 34 level early in the week but failed on Thursday and traded back down through the 61.8% retracement level.

Below are my comments on other markets I have been following closely this week.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas rallied strongly this week surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range on Thursday and consolidating this break on Friday. The rally is being largely driven by a potential storm and there is potential for a sharp failure of this level depending on the outcome.



CL – Crude Oil

Oil failed the 61.8% retracement level on Monday and could not surpass this level again for the rest of the week. I am neutral where Oil is concerned at this stage.



KC – Coffee

Coffee rallied sharply on Monday but gave up most of the gains on Wednesday. While prices are trading between the 61.8% retracement level of the recent corrective range and the 200 SMA I am neutral where Coffee is concerned.



HG – Copper

Copper fell sharply this week trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend on Wednesday. If the break of this level is credible Copper may trade down to 1.85.



LE – Live Cattle

Cattle continued lower this week trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend and opening up a potential downside target of 98.40.

I added to my Short position in Eurodollars today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars bounded back today recovering some of the fall from Friday and posting a bullish full bodied candle.



HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46

Daily Comment: Hogs traded both higher and lower today finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive candle. Prices held below the 40 SMA.



SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1983 risking $660
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640

Daily Comment: Sugar traded both higher and lower today finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive candle.



Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas traded in a small range today finishing slightly lower and posting an indecisive doji candle.

No trades today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded in a small range today finishing unchanged and posting an indecisive doji candle.



HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46

Daily Comment: Hogs continued higher today trading up to the 40 SMA and posting a bullish candle.



SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1983 risking $660
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640

Daily Comment: Sugar struggled at the 20.80 level again today finishing the day lower and posting a bearish candle.



Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas was higher during the overnight session before turning to finish the day lower back at the 61.8% retracement level and posting a candle with an upper shadow.

No trades today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded in another small range today finishing slightly lower and posting an indecisive candle.



HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46

Daily Comment: Hogs were higher again today closing above the 40 SMA and posting a bullish candle. Price is approaching the previous highs where sellers have taken control recently.



SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1983 risking $660
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640

Daily Comment: Sugar traded back down through the 61.8% retracement level toady posting a bearish full bodied candle.



Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas held the 61.8% retracement level today finishing the day higher and posting a bullish candle.

Below is my updated tracking sheet for August with the key metrics I am currently following.



All 3 of my open positions went heavily against me during the last week of the month turning what was a pretty quiet month into a mild drawdown. A disappointing finish to the month but the losses were simply a result of natural market movements that are encountered when holding positions longer term and were not a result of poor trading so it doesn’t bother me.

I recently made a few changes to my trading plan which I will continue to review over the next few months.

1. Average Risk Per Trade –My average risk per trade target for the coming year is $US750. My trades entered during August all met this target.

2. Total Risk Per Capital – My risk on a total capital basis is targeted at less than 10% of capital at risk at any given point in time. I exceeded this target on 2 days during August but quickly adjusted my positions to fall back within the target range.

3. Trade Setups – I have limited the number of trade setups to only my highest quality setups. All trades taken during August fell within the limited trade setups targeted with the exception of Sugar. I made an exception for this trade as I have been looking for an opportunity to re-enter this market after being stopped out prematurely on a previous Sugar trade which did meet one of my targeted trade setups.

I am going on holidays for most of September so I will be doing very little trading and will not be completing my journal on a regular basis. My game plan for my trading while overseas is as follows:

1. Any weak positions held prior to leaving will be closed out.

2. Any trades which remain open will have a hard stop in the market during all trading hours.

3. I won’t be making any new trades unless a really special opportunity presents itself.