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- Entered and stopped out of a short position in the Brazilian Real
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro was mostly sideways this week trading above and below the 1.21 level and finished the week slightly higher.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie was mostly sideways early in the week around the 0.80 level before breaking out above this level on Friday after strong labour data.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei started the year strongly blasting through the 23,000 level and taking out the November highs.
Weekly Comment: Uranium started the year with a move higher but was sideways for the remainder of the week.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were lower this week trading back down towards the bottom of the recent range.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of February Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.3037
Stop: $0.3083
Exit Price: $0.3085
Result: -1.04R
Weekly Comment: The Real was higher to start the week triggering my entry at the 200 SMA but prices didn’t reverse from this level and continued higher and triggered my stop quickly. This is the third and final attempt at this trade.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZO – Oats
Oats were higher this week but remain within the recent range. The 50 SMA has almost crossed down through the 200 SMA.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders moved back above the 200 SMA to start the week but quickly failed this level and finished the week on a bearish note. I’ll be monitoring this market on the short side moving forward with the 200 SMA starting to turn over and the 50 SMA starting to move down towards the 200 SMA.
SB – Sugar
Sugar poked its head above the 200 SMA at the start was unable to hold above this level.
MINIFIB – Mini MIB
The Italian stock market was lower early in the week but didn’t get low enough to touch the 200 SMA and trigger an entry before rallying strongly at the end of the week.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro was lower early in the week but held the 20 SMA before surging higher to finish the week at a new closing high for the move.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie was sharply lower on Wednesday on NAFTA talk but held the 100 SMA before bouncing at the end of the week to close back above the 0.80 level.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei started the week with new highs before dipping to finish the week unchanged.
Weekly Comment: Uranium couldn’t surpass the 20 SMA falling from this level at the start of the week and trading back down to the 50 SMA on Friday where I added the final tranche of my position.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were sharply lower at the start breaking down below the recent range.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZO – Oats
Oats traded in a very tight range this week with no clear direction as seen with a flat 200 SMA so I am getting less interested in this trade.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders were mostly sideways this week and I continue to monitor this market for a short position on any strength.
SB – Sugar
Sugar continued lower this week and looks to be heading back down to the bottom of the range.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa was higher this week trading back up towards the 200 SMA. If prices surpass this level I may look at having one more shot at this trade.
SI – Silver
The precious metals space has been moving higher lately. Whilst Silver has been lagging it closed back above the 200 SMA on Friday posting a bullish full bodied candle and I may look at taking a long position here.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural gas finished the week strongly and is now just below the 200 SMA. If prices surpass the 200 SMA I may look at taking a long position.
6J – Japanese Yen
The Yen was up sharply on Wednesday but wasn’t able to surpass the 200 SMA. If prices can exceed this level I may look at taking a long position.
German Bonds
Both the 2 & 10 year bonds were sharply lower early in the week breaking down through the 200 SMA and I’ll be looking at trying to add a short position in one of the markets in the near future.
MINIFIB – Mini MIB
The Italian stock market continued higher this week into new highs and this trade comes off the watch list.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro broke out to new highs at the start the week before trading back down to test the previous high level.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie attempted to rally again this week after the BOC raised rates but again was unable to surpass the 0.81 level.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei pushed up into new highs during the week briefly trading above the 24,000 level but fell back to finish the week only slightly higher.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA and below the most recent low.
Weekly Comment: Silver was higher during the overnight session before the holiday finishing above the recent highs before the holiday break where I entered a long position. Prices fell back once trade re-opened trading back down below the 200 SMA and then continued to trade above and below the 200 SMA for the remainder of the week before closing below this level to finish the week.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZO – Oats
Oats continued higher this week surpassing the 200 SMA but were lower on Friday to finish the just above this level.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders traded up to the 200 SMA during the week but were unable to surpass the 50 SMA finishing lower on Friday to close below both these levels. I’ll be monitoring the price action early next week to determine whether I enter a short position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar continued lower this week trading below the bottom of the range and making new lows. This market comes off the watch list.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa was higher this week trading above the 200 SMA after strong European demand figures but didn’t surpass the level by enough to trigger an entry before falling back below the 200 SMA at the end of the week after weak North American demand data.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural gas traded up to the 200 SMA this week but was unable to surpass this level and fell back to finish the week practically unchanged.
6J – Japanese Yen
The Yen surpassed the 200 SMA at the start of the week but not by enough to trigger an entry before falling back below this level. Prices rallied again on Friday to close back above the 200 SMA but still not by enough to trigger an entry.
German Bonds
I prefer the look of the 2-Yr Schatz chart which was higher this week trading back up towards the 200 SMA. The 50 SMA has turned down but I’d like to see it a bit closer to the 200 SMA before taking a position.
- Entered a long position in Natural Gas
- Entered a partial long position in the Yen
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro rallied strongly this week and made a new closing high but it was a bit of a rollercoaster with competing comments from Mnuchin and Trump causing the FX markets to swing wildly.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie was higher again this week continuing to test the 0.81 level but closing above it this week.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei rallied strongly to start the week closing above the 24,000 level but quickly fell back below this level as the Yen rallied strongly trading back down to the 20 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Uranium continued to drift lower this week.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were mixed this week but fell on Friday to make new lows for the move.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 17.35
Stop: 16.83
Weekly Comment: Silver was lower early in the week but bounced from the 50 SMA and rallied back over the 200 SMA.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Mini Natural Gas
Entry Price: 3.05
Stop: 2.92
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: Gas in storage is below the 5 year average and an impending polar vortex could reduce supplies in storage even further.
Reasons for Stop Placement: It was below the 200 SMA based on my manual roll but is no longer below the 200 SMA after the volume based roll later in the week. Given that the stop is now in no mans land I have moved to a break even stop and if it is triggered I will look to re-enter the trade from lower levels where the stop is below the 200 SMA again.
Weekly Comment: Natural Gas exploded higher on Tuesday near the completion of the Feb contract surpassing the 200 SMA. I entered an order below the market on Wednesday which was filled before prices moved higher again after a bigger than expected draw in storage and expectations of incoming cold weather.
MJY – Micro Yen
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Micro Yen
Entry Price: 0.009152
Stop: 0.00895
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA and below the most recent low.
Weekly Comment: The Yen was sharply higher on Wednesday closing well above the 0.0091 level. I had orders below the market on Thursday and Friday but only one got filled before prices moved higher again to finish the week. I will continue to look to add another contract to the position on any weakness.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders continued to trade around the 200 SMA this week. I sized up the trade early in the week but with so many trading opportunities around I let this one go as it involved the most risk.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa found support at the 20 SMA early in the week and moved higher for the rest of the week to close just above the 200 SMA but not by enough to trigger an entry at this stage.
FGBS - Schatz
The Schatz turned lower from the 20 SMA early in the week falling sharply on Thursday and Friday to make new lows for the move. Hopefully I’m not too late to catch this move and will be able to enter on any rallies.
- Stopped out of my long position in Natural Gas
- Added to my long position in the Yen
- Entered a partial short position in the Schatz
- Exited my long position in Uranium
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro held above the 1.24 level early in the week before rallying to make a new weekly closing high for the move.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie made new highs for the move during the week before crashing on Friday and trading back down through the 0.81 level to the 20 SMA.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei traded back down to the 50 SMA this week with major weakness seen across world stock markets late in the week. If this level breaks I may sell half the position.
U – Uranium Participation Corp (TSX)
Trade: Long 1,000 shares of U Average Entry Price: $4.07
Exit Price: $3.86
Result: -0.68R
Weekly Comment: Uranium traded down to the 200 SMA early in the week which held until Friday with a close below this level where I exited the position.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued their slide this week trading down below the post election lows.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 17.35
Stop: 16.83
Weekly Comment: Silver re-tested the 200 SMA early in the week and held before crashing down through the 200 SMA on Friday. I didn’t have a hard stop in the market and with the close well below my stop level I decided to wait and see whether I can get out at a better price in Monday’s overnight session or otherwise I will exit before Monday’s RTH.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Mini Natural Gas
Entry Price: 3.05
Exit Price: 3.05
Result: -
Weekly Comment: Natural Gas fell sharply on Wednesday on warmer weather forecasts triggering my stop. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week finishing down near the 200 SMA.
MJY – Micro Yen
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Micro Yen
Entry Price: 0.009152
Stop: 0.00895
Weekly Comment: The Yen was mostly sideways early in the week before moving lower where I added to the position at the same level I bought last week but unfortunately prices continued lower on Friday trading down to the 20 SMA.
FGBS – German Schatz
Trade: Short 1 contract of March Schatz
Entry Price: 11.85
Stop: 112.025
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded down through the 200 SMA after a long uptrend.
Reasons for Stop Placement: Above the 200 SMA and the recent highs.
Weekly Comment: The Schatz gapped lower at the open on Monday and I decided to enter part of a position at the top of the gap so that I was in the market. Prices tested that gap every day after providing an opportunity to enter a partial position. I will continue to add to the position on any further strength with a smaller overall position size.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa dipped below the 200 SMA early in the week but quickly regained the ground above this level. Prices finally surpassed the 200 SMA by enough to enter a position on Thursday but the price action wasn’t encouraging enough with prices closing well off the highs so I didn’t enter a position. Prices provided the necessary confirmation on Friday with a strong close but the price is now outside my risk parameters. I will either buy on any weakness or trade for the London contract which has not yet surpassed the 200 SMA.
KE – Kansas Wheat
Kansas wheat gapped strongly higher early in the week after poorer than expected crop conditions but couldn’t surpass the 200 SMA. If prices surpass this level I may look at entering a long position.
DAX
The DAX finished back at the 200 SMA on Friday and may offer a good buying opportunity here.
CAC 40
The CAC 40 was sharply lower this week but has not quite made the 200 SMA yet. I may look to add a long position if the price continues lower to intersect with this level.
