For some reason the video didn't finish uploading today, but I had a pretty bad day that will require some analysis. We had a day with a lot of order flow both ways. So we're going up, and sellers come out of nowhere to stop everyone out, then it eventually goes and makes new highs. I'd expect to have a hard time in such action, but a few mistakes just made it worse.

First I was in a trade that was just a little too random. In the middle of a range with no probability edge. When that trade stopped out I made another mistake by trying to reverse there. Not something I normally do as stop runs often reverse for a few ticks. Not sure why I did that. So I lost out on both ends. Then I had another trade where I had a good signal to double up. This would have been ok except that I didn't take a contract off when it didn't take. It makes a push up but then doesn't follow through the probability goes down, and I need to resize.

Finally I caught the trade I wanted for a push to new highs and test 11. However, it didn't reach my target, and I was too slow to close the position. So here again is where the impulsive moves probably should be a signal to get out.

This puts my combine back in the -1000 territory. Right now it's the commissions that are killing me. So I definitely need to work on less trades.

Big drama today. My plan was to stay out for the first 30 minutes if the market ended up being volatile after the news. This would have worked perfectly except for some reason I still had a protective stop placed from way back on Tuesday. That stop happened to exactly coincide exactly with where the market peaked today. I was filled at the top with no idea how it executed. By the time I realized what had happened it was already too late.

There was no point in trying to save the combine account. I'm just glad I learned this lesson while still on a combine. I'm not sure why I didn't notice that there was still an outstanding stop order, but I changed a few settings in my software that should prevent this in the future.

Since I was right at the rebill period for my TST account, I just canceled that account to start a new one. Once I was up and going again I was able to take 8 ticks out of the market. So in terms of actual trading today I actually did pretty good!

This is all super embarrassing to report, but with this journal I told myself I was going to be open about everything. The good news is that even after Thursday's down day I still had a pretty good August. This despite the super slow market. Even better I now have a fresh combine with $250 profit in it, and more promising trading opportunities in September as volatility increases.

I made $675, and decided to not push my luck any further. I could have made another $500 or so on the second leg of the move. Oh well. Two good positive days on a new combine is great.

This gives us a new high in the December contract, but is still only just closing the gap from the rollover. I think the move makes sense. We were up last week because of the risk of conflict with North Korea when they launched a missile over Japan. Now they have tested a hydrogen bomb. The risk has only gotten more likely, and bond prices are reflecting that. However, equities are not pushing for another leg lower. I'm going to be extra cautious the rest of the week. We don't have much in the way of economic releases this week. So we've got a situation where it will either be dead or completely rip your face off.

After a huge trend day we ended up with an extremely volatile range bound session. I took -8 ticks, and most of our friends had rough days as well. I kept to my rules, but I wish I had realized how range bound we are earlier.

It looks like the moves were off news about the debt ceiling. I want to see another day before I make too many conclusions about what it means. We are kicking the debt ceiling increase back to December. It could still be ugly.

Another big $500 profit day for me. Caught a great trend. I could have played it a little better, but I saw the big breakout correctly. At $500 I decided to call it quits, but it looks like there was another $500 in there. Crazy action, and I'm not sure how to interpret it for the long term picture.

Look at about 1:52:00 in the video where I talk a bit about the move. I explain how I play this kind of action, and what rules I use to prevent myself from being on the wrong side of a trend.

A little tilting today. I was generally with the trend, but it was very difficult to catch the right spots, and stay with it. I'm still profitable on the week, but today was a good reminder to be careful. Next week is the auctions which have been difficult for me in the past.

Yesterday was pretty poor trading for me. The larger than usual pullbacks didn't help, and I'm still on a bender of a losing streak. I did much better today, but only pulled out a small profit. It's difficult for me to know for sure what's happening on the larger timeframe here. It's very difficult to tell what's going on, and auctions coming up doesn't help. I think we'll have a good idea of what's happening by the end of the week.

Some big numbers printed in the order flow scared me away from taking any trades. Fairly narrow range here. Uncertain if we're going to actually break out to the downside or find support here.

The primary driver appears to be incoming dollar strength. Possibly due to hopes that Trump will get his tax plan passed. It could bring profits from overseas back to the US which is like buying the dollar. This creates a bunch of competing forces, and I'm not sure quite sure how it all works out. However, this does explain the huge numbers in the order flow. Some people are selling on expectations of higher rates from a strengthening dollar and economy. Others are buying to hedge the impacts of deflationary pressures.

The problem of course is that we don't know if the tax reform will pass!

Frustrating trading this week. The end effect has been mostly me spending money on comissions. Several good trades that I'm not taking profits on fast enough.

hey i trade the ZN myself nice effort to continue your journal.

i watched your last video and i'm really trying to help you here so i hope you don't take it the wrong way.
your first trade you were 4 tick in the money then you only got 1 tick with a 4 tick stop...

why don't you just set a fixed 4 tick SL and target and let the market sort out your trade so when you review your trade you can clearly analyze the data and see where you are in you journey.
this will reduce also wild swing in your PNL.
more you micro manage your trade more you introduce variable into your way of trading.

just look for an area you want to get long or short stalk it and then wait to see if you want to get long are the buyers actually there or not put your trade and let it go.

the stop and target size is something you need to decide by yourself and one advice i would give you is do not disregard 0.75 or 0.5 R because you might be suited for a higher Win loss ratio with a bigger stop than your target you need to try many different type and see what correspond to your personnality.
hope it help