I thought, I'll also share my approach to ES trades, especially a potential reversal. I haven't really traded ES much lately but my general approach these days is that in the morning I'll put some alarms on important levels and then it just gets hit during the session or not. So I can follow my oil charts as for ES I have a different desktop with different charts. Here is the screenshot:



As you can see I still have 1 screen for CL to monitor for potential opportunities or if I'm in a trade. The laptop screen in the middle shows always both CL and ES in a 1min or smaller time frame.

In general, I like to monitor the NYSE tick and use it as a confirmation for my ES entries as well as a NQ chart on my left screen. When all 3 charts line up, I'll take a position on ES. NYSE tick I use when we have a crazy up or down move and I'm looking for a reversal or retracement within a strong trend. As today, I was thinking of going short ES near 2423 and thought we could easily trade to the lows around 2420ish but I was near my daily risk limit and thought I won't enter the short. Then of course we all know we had a 13pt down move from that level and I felt a bit pissed that I didn't take it but then on the other hand I followed my rules (only kind of as you will see on my next post where I summarize my CL trades - pretty shitty day...). So I was just observing and had several levels on ES where we might find support. All of them got broken but then while watching NYSE tick hit the low near -1300, it quickly turned around and traded higher and higher, so I checked NQ and also at 10:26am it found support and jumped higher. ES was also up 5T from the LOD, so I just entered with a market long order and I was never offside and it just traded up and up.




The last time NYSE tick was that low -1300 was June 29 + 15, April 19 + 5 and March 9 + 8, didn't look back further. But I like to enter a trade near these extremes as it has a high probability for a reversal.

Entry: 2411.5
Stop: 2409.5 (below LOD)
Exit: 2412.75




I was a bit afraid that we could just come down again and trade towards 2400 even as it was a counter-trend trade I booked a quick profit and was out. I also don't use an ATM on ES as I have been struggling with it on CL as you'll see in my next post. Of course, we are almost 10pts higher now and I left a lot on the table. Here again it becomes easier when you enter 2 or 3 lots as you can scale out.

Well, overall a pretty shitty day (again) for me on my CL trading. Still struggling with my ATM but soon I'll finish my 100 trades and then I can analyse it. Hopefully, I won't hit my max risk limit beforehand!

So here are my trades 1min and 30s:





Trade 4:

Entry: 44.55
Stop: 44.47

I entered with a buy stop order above the RTH HOD (44.53) and thought if we break the high from earlier we should have a move towards OR-X3 (44.80ish). I was filled right on the tick but ift quickly came down and I was stopped with -11T, a bit of slippage here.

Trade 5:

Entry: 44.41
Stop: 44.33

I saw that 44.26 held and it was just above OR-H, thought we would still go higher today but again stopped on the tick and then it just continued to go higher. Found support 1T below my stop and then just traded up and up.
Here I was pretty annoyed and had almost hit my max risk limit for the session as I was at $-273.60. Here I should've just stopped because 1 more losing trade and I would go over my risk limit. However, on the other hand I still thought we should go higher so I entered again...

Trade 6:

Entry: 44.41 (2 lots)
Stop: 44.33

I was pretty annoyed to see it just seconds later at my entry from the previous trade and I just hit market order. I thought it looked pretty good for a move up and entered with 2 lots. Thought I could make it back easily. pretty bad bc if my stop would've been hit I would be sitting on a daily loss of $450...but I still went in and exited 1 lot with 4T and wanted to hold the other but my ATM moved the stop to +1 which was hit and then it just took off and my initial target near OR-X3 was hit...(this put me in a pretty pissed state of mind...)

Trade 7:

Entry: 44.71 & 44.76
Stop: 44.81

I was the we traded up to my initial target area around 44.80ish and came down from there. So I thought we could have a move towards 44.60ish and I entered short. Against my rules I scaled in a 2nd lot and when it came towards my avg. entry I took 1 lot off as I know I was breaking the rules of this challenge. I held on to my 2nd lot and booked a profit at 44.68. Now I was back to "only" -192 for the session and thought I could enter 1 more trade...

Trade 8:

Entry: 44.65 & 44.76
Stop: 44.80

I entered at the low from 10min ago and thought we would finally go lower, however pretty bad trade as I had a big stop and even added a 2nd lot just before my stop as I "hoped" it would return lower. In the end a stupid trade and also a huge stop as I lost $200. I mean normally it's not a big deal losing 200 but on such a small account, it is kind of too much as I was also now at -391 for the session and clearly above my limits...

Trade 9:

Entry: 44.83 (2lots)
Stop: 44.91

Again short as Yday high (44.84) and ONH (44.91) didn't have follow through. So I thought we could have a retracement towards 44.60ish...I shouldn't have entered the trade as I was risking $170 and this would put me to -560 for the day if I would be stopped out. However, I still entered and it didn't go against me so I quickly booked 3T on my first lot then I had 5T on the 2nd lot but I traded back to my entry I was stopped at BE only to see it go lower again...

Trade 10:

Entry: 44.76 & 44.85
Stop: 44.91

This was a stupid revenge trade against the market as I was just pissed at my trading today and didn't really wait for a proper entry confirmation short. Just quickly hit the market order and got in as I was annoyed that I was stopped at BE on my previous trade. Then it just went against me and I added another lot just before my stop which was at HOD. This time I was lucky that the HOD held and it went lower. When I was onside 4T, I then booked 3T on first lot as I didn't want to give it back at BE and then I booked 7T on 2nd. Then it traded back to my avg. entry at 44.80 but I was afraid that we would now make a new HOD and trade up to 45 even. Hence, I didn't enter but then it went down towards my initial target area around 44.60ish...

I saw that ES came back towards yday's RTH low at 2419.25 and it looked like we couldn't go higher than 2421 after we came off strongly of the LOD.

So I thought, I would enter a short with a target near 2417-2416.




Trade 2:
Entry: 2419.5
Stop: 2421.5

I entered and it was just hovering around 2420ish and I was waiting for the break of 2418.5 (highs from 11.15am-11:40am) which acted now as support. When we couldn't break it I just took the trade off as also NQ and NYSE tick starting going higher. So I just booked 2T.

For the next 20min it was just trading around 2420ish and we we came back down towards 2419.25, I entered again:

Trade 3:
Entry: 2419.25
Stop: 2421.25

Again it found support at 2418.75/50 and couldn't go lower. Therefore, my thesis came invalid and I took it off at BE again. Then it briefly just traded 1pt lower before pushing back up towards 2425. Here I would've been stopped out so not too fuzzed about getting out at BE

Just had 1 more trade on ES today and here is the screen shot and reasoning:

Entry: 2423.75
Stop: 2425.75

Entered after we found support yday's close and PP, down 2pts from highs and was looking for a move towards 2421.50ish. We traded near the entry for a while and didn't move much. When we couldn't go below 2422ish I took it off near BE. It never really went below that level and just kept going up towards the ONH where if finally found resistance.

Well, I didn't plan to trade the numbers but I still had my platform open and I thought we would continue the big draws which could add some more upside and continue the up trend.

We had the 2nd biggest draw of 2017 and here is the link: API Reports 8.1 Million Barrel Inventory Draw, WTI Oil Price Gains Sharply




Trade 11:

Entry: Buy stop @ 45.26 BUT filled @ 45.43
Stop: 45.35

Before the numbers I thought of either up or down but I looked at my inventory spreadsheet and for the last 6 weeks, on 4 occasions we had a big draw so I just went with the trend and put a buy stop order just under today's HOD. However, I think I did a mistake buy not using a buy stop limit order as I was filled 17T above and then stopped out within a second. Then, I was a bit slow to reenter. Note to myself: BUY STOP LIMIT!!!




Trade 12:

Entry: 45.69
Stop: 45.77

45.75 acted as some resistance and on 2 tries it couldn't go higher so I waited for a move towards 45.70ish and when it was trying to go lower, I just entered with a market order and it quickly went onside and the ATM moved to +1, then to +4 and as it couldn't go down quick enough I just exited with a small gain of +6T.

Done for the day, overall pretty bad day on my little account!!! Will post my all stats for the day in the next posts!

Here is just my excel spreadsheet with all my trades from today and daily P&L

Well as you all have seen from previous trades the day didn't start very well. I took 5 trades and was stopped out on 3 and the other 2 trades were stopped at BE. The bad thing was that all of them were long trades and if you look at today's CL chart you see that it pretty much just went straight up with no real retracement lower. Hence, after 1h I was looking at a loss of $-273.60 and was pretty pissed at myself and the market as most of my targets would've been hit with either a bigger stop or without the use of my auto BE. That was kind of the beginning where my mind was in a pretty pissed mood and I just wanted to make it back.

Normally, I should have just stopped there because 1 more stop-out would have broken my daily risk limit, But instead of stopping I started to trade with 2 lots and also scaling in which I didn't want to do either. So I took a long again which was never offside and it quickly went up but I was stopped at BE again and then it rallied higher and higher. So again I wasn't on the ride up and missed quite a bit again. There I thought, we now come up about 100T, it's time for a move lower and I went against the trend with a bigger than allowed stop and even added into a losing position a 2nd lot and of course was stopped out. Here I was looking at $-391 for my daily loss and I was pretty annoyed that I continued to trade and go over my daily risk limit. But instead of stopping I thought, I could make it back and continued to trade more and used 2 lots again to at least take a couple ticks out of the market when I had 3-5T, and I managed to make some back. Quickly I was back to -260 and then I took a nice long on the ES after we had this sudden move down. But I went out way too early as we rallied another 16pts after I sold my lot. Even more annoyed that I couldn't just stick to my plan and hold at least for +5pts...Then I took a break of 1.5h to calm down a bit and trade more later on.

I managed to book a couple scalps but mostly just BE. Then my order type mistake gave me another loss...that was a bit stupid from my side but well.

Overall, the morning was pretty hard to deal with as my ATM seems that I should change its settings. But so far I'm at 50 CL trades and just missing 50 more and then I'll see how I will change it. I mean, I'm not totally fuzzed about getting out at BE but when it happens several times in a row only to see getting out at BE and then running up 20,30, or even 50T is where I get really annoyed as the initial strat was right!

All about self-control in trading

lost about one third of my max allowed loss. Let's see if I can turn that positive again.

Tomorrow, as stated before, I won't be trading CL before 9:30am and wait for the inventory. Normally, I'm aiming for a bigger than expected draw on EIA as well. This years and last years number show that a really big draw on API is normally followed by a big one on EIA too! So good luck tomorrow and good evening all!

daily prep