Hi Traders
nothing else in plan. out of sugar short, still holding ES long




cheers
DarrenC

If anyone interested,
i did some studies on my detailed trade log, by looking into details of each and every specific technical identifier, trying to see if any significance in relation to P/L. The review and result is subjective, but i decided to take it as good.

my thought process is simple, certain setups that i used to trade, i will no longer trade it. the sample size of 600+ may not be huge, but i will think it is reasonable. and i do not want to risk my capital to setups that not having positive expectancy over almost 2 years.

so basically on one hand i loosen some criteria that i think, base on my studies, have higher expectancy, on the other hand i make some other criteria more stringent. I do not know if this will reduce my number of trade eventually, but i decided to take the risk and make this changes after much consideration.

Also, if you have seen from other post, i did study my MFE MAE and did some manual backtest using excel to see if a more aggressive trailing stop/smaller initial stop will help me to cut my losers smaller and give me a better equity curve. I have also base on that study, decided to adopt a more aggressive trailing stop during early stage of the trade. at the same time, i will be adding on position more aggressively should thing not getting worse off during early stage of trade by using a smaller stoploss.

some of the study/stats/table/chart i refer to make all these decision are attached for reference. Feel free to take a look, it is not easy to understand bcz my study is not very systematic and it also crossed over almost 2 months to complete this. if any of these of your interest, i m more than happy to have a discussion. Comment always welcome.

i did have some concern about curve fitting and all that, so if you think i was behind any blindspot, i m more than happy to know.












cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
Thank you for those taking their time on the numerous screenshot, i know it is almost impossible to understand the whole thought process, but i hope by sharing this out, i had made sure i did the best for myself, for being as sensible as possible and as reasonable as possible. Also, hopefully this spurs new idea for some of you when you review your trades.

cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
Last night my sugar position stopped out with small profit.

still holding my ES Long.




cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
today plan is continue holding ES Long, expectation is ES will try higher to hug daily/h4 MPOC 2473 area and hover there.


also i m looking for a short entry on Soybean h1. entrey below 932, stop above 940 for intial risk mgmt



good luck and have fun

cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
re-attached soybean screenshot:



cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
coming in late today. was busy catching out my log after a series of error trade. expected hiccups with new implementation on my strategy and glad that not much damage, just commission and fees. back on track now.
exited Natgas. and exited wheat, went Long, and exited again. double-whammy.



extra homework did kick in after error trades, shame on that more than 3 strikes.

cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
today plan is continue hold my position, cautiously riding the trend, and then slowly and steadily carry out my revised plan.

couple of screenshots on what i have as of now.








cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
last night i got into more NQ Long and ended up with 3 more losers from NQ itself. no complaint, no error on these trades, just Long signal been favourable and just not working out.
my coffee sell limit was filled and my stop hold up well untill now, just saw it break into recent low. hopefully can push my stop to positive zone soon.
I also exited soybean Short with tiny tiny profit and turn to Long now. Exited Es long also with ok profit.
earlier on i got into Natgas Short. all details in PDF as usual.




Cheers
DarrenC

Hi Traders
Today i remain bullish on ES and NQ, with possible entry on current setup. should it turn south going below my h4 box then only i will turn bearish, and likely no entry to catch as far as i can forsee bcz my h1 will not be in sync with h4.



still keeping my coffee short and natgas short, with natgas i consider further add on if h4 get more bearish by closing below h4 box, yet not too far from my h1 box.



still bullish on soybean but i think longer timeframe is still dominated by bear. lets see how it goes.



cheers
DarrenC