guidoisot 

Hi, welcome back. Thanks for continuing to share on this thread your market analysis insights. I suppose the questions I am asking here are perhaps too nive ... please be patient, ... please reply only if you happen to have some spare time How can you tell it is just one! big buyer, with Jigsaw? with bookmap? or with any order flow visualizer? I understand you talk about market maker as if it was one single entity, but aren't sometimes mm one fighting one against the other, or is the "old Europe"'s DAX too small for such a circumstance? what do you mean by "first held bid? "the buyer left" and what is it going to do now with all the purchased assets? going to buy again later on at a lower price? this is not too clear to me also if it is possible, maybe by using larger charts you could embed some of your comments directly on the charts, that should make it easier to understand your points (at least for inexperienced people like me) Thank you. Best.

I can see the order is big and they are actually filled, so it must be a big entity. Or it could be many participants all agreed to buy into a single level. For me it is the same. A strong level is a level where big volume is traded. You could use Jigsaw or S5bookmap. But a footprint chart, in most cases, is good enough.

First held bid is a bid holding in the face of a big sell market order.

The buyer left means after it sold off his holding at the high, he is not interested in holding up the market anymore. So I don't see strong bid holding anymore. I have attached a marked chart to visualize the idea.

Today is another day you should trade without your bias.
Most people come into this session with a bearish bias. But the strong buyer showed up multiple times holding the bid firm.
By raising the bid higher and higher, it is able to squeeze the bears with the maximum pain and making himself a nice profit.

This is what we call trading not investing. It is not about picking tops and bottoms, but about following the tape. Let the tape talking to you and you just follow the lead of the tape without any pre-conceived judgement or bias.

shrekchenbin 

... Let the tape talking to you and you just follow the lead of the tape without any pre-conceived judgement or bias.

also imho this make perfect sense. It is something I should stick in capital letters on top of my monitor.

it looks like it is essential to have and to become familiar with the right set of tools in order to do that.

I have been using some time ago a nice market profile tool, doing many of the charting I see on this thread, but then I was often asked to pay for upgrades ..... so I had to drop it

I read somewhere, some time ago, that NT has plans to add a default market profile tool to the platform. This sounds great. Let's hope it will be designed also for enabling/simplifying this type of listening to the "tape talking".

Bearish rotation in DAX when I was having my lunch. You can see that the strong buyer present the whole morning was there no more. This has opened doors to lower prices.

tresuries appears to be really pusihng up hard, both in delta, and price and in overall demand index
in your opinion is this something anticipating some kind of "flight to safety", ie a bearish start of the day for equities.
or, again, is this just another fake message?

guidoisot 

tresuries appears to be really pusihng up hard, both in delta, and price and in overall demand index in your opinion is this something anticipating some kind of "flight to safety", ie a bearish start of the day for equities. or, again, is this just another fake message?

Guidoisot,
It is really unusual that Bonds shoot up so strongly. It is going to drag down equity for sure.

guidoisot 

tresuries appears to be really pusihng up hard, both in delta, and price and in overall demand index in your opinion is this something anticipating some kind of "flight to safety", ie a bearish start of the day for equities. or, again, is this just another fake message?

And drive up dollar and Gold.

ES broke down from the two week range. Two scenarios in play here.
1. The break down is false and it has created a spring trading through the whole range and broke the high ultimately. This is possible but much less probable;
2. It retraces higher and find a massive supply near or at the two week VPOC 2718 level.

A emotional selling yesterday has turned into a buying opportunity.

Now ES has 2720 level in the cross-hair. I am going to watch reaction from that level to gauge the possibility of further extension.

This morning DAX has tested the prior day's POC/VPOC 12760 level by a sudden down thrust when the liquidity is low. Hence the market maker has the upside in mind, because the stop run usually runs counter to the market maker's real intention.

If DAX would trade lower then the second scenario would come into play that it could retest 12727.5 area, last Friday's VPOC, before shooting higher.