Pulled 9 more ticks. Sort of a quick scalp.

TradingOgre 

Just a visual judgement call. I don't like the minor swings that are really close to the downtrend (in this case). The second one that I missed due to a distraction has a good bit more room between it and the downtrend. Hope that makes sense. More of a personal preference than a must do.

Gotcha. And what about when prices reacted to the 200ema. Should you have just bought off that strong bull bar?

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stefan416 

Gotcha. And what about when prices reacted to the 200ema. Should you have just bought off that strong bull bar? Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Yes, when it broke back above the 200 ema, which was also a bounce off of the 800 ema. Multiple things were screaming at me but I didn't hear them.

TradingOgre 

Yes, when it broke back above the 200 ema, which was also a bounce off of the 800 ema. Multiple things were screaming at me but I didn't hear them.

K so I'm not the only one that happens too lol.

What always trips me up is thinking something is a reversal when it's not or congestion leading to a continuation move which I miss due to the iffy action.

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These markets are as smooth as 50 grit sandpaper. LOL! Low volume made trading tricky yesterday. So far today it seems to be heading the same direction.

GDP numbers this morning at 830 eastern time US. Maybe that is what they are waiting on? Will find out in 3 hours or so.

CL finally picking a direction and making a move up. Entry would have been about an hour ago with a break of the swing high above the yellow line (200 ema) on the 500 tick chart. When the markets are being a pain in the a**, I like to wait for larger more significant swings before trading against the overall trend. Oil inventory numbers at 1030 Eastern time US this morning. Of course hindsight is 20/20 since all of this happened before I was up.




6E dropped nicely in very early morning trading. And I do mean VERY early in the morning. LOL! 5 minute chart below.



NQ is busy chopping up accounts and making people cry. Not me though. I will watch it for a while before jumping in. Maybe it will get better after GDP numbers. Maybe it won't.

I need to write a new strategy for NT8.... all it will do is delete any counter trend pending orders. LOL! Good day trading but this afternoon I thought I was smart enough to decide where the trend will reverse. The markets had other ideas. Why won't they listen?

Keeping the trade on for now. Needs to break below 7649 ish to make me feel a little smarter.

Next time I even mention anything positive about counter trend trading just

John Wayne reportedly once said "If you're gonna be dumb ya gotta be tough!" That last trade was wrong in every sense of the word. No need to even post a chart. Just remember to ALWAYS go with the trend.

Three things were wrong with the trade:

1. Counter Trend
2. Had 2 chances to jump out with a 4-6 tick loss. Kept thinking it was going to keep going. Just sat there and watched it swing back against me. Sometimes a small loss is a big win.
3. Trade started during lunch time (approx) markets tend to range during that time (not always). Price came down just enough to take the trade and it never went more than 1 tick green.

Just going to file that one under "Dang! What was I thinking?"

It happens. I am ok with it. Still a great week overall. Just the one small black eye.

Man! I am a slacker when it comes to this journal. I actually made the choice not to post here for a while until I could get my thought process back in line. After my stupid trade of the century a week or so ago, I decided to take a few days off then come back with a fresh mind and attack it once again. I must say, I believe the stupids are cured at least for now. I was able to recoup all of the losses from that trade the day after Labor day and progress has been steady since. While the losses weren't major my engineering mind had a hard time dealing with the utter stupidity of the trade. I am ok with a losing trade if the trade made sense but man that one was wrong on so many levels. LOL!

I wanted to finish step one on the Combine today but market conditions just didn't allow for it. Probably due to the rollover. Seems like I remember it being this way after the last rollover. Not sure but it sounds good. LOL!

Watching the charts, I see something today that I will spend some time on this weekend with BloodHound trying to make it see what I think I see. It looks very promising based on eyeball backtesting done today. If I get it to program right I will post some screenshots this weekend and try to explain what I am seeing. It is only a slight variation to what I am doing now but it looks like it makes the trading 100% mechanical with no room for personal interpretation. Really only two rules for entry. Because of that, it should automate nicely as long as I can get working properly. My plan is to make it an automatic entry but manage the trade manually. First things first, just get it to work correctly.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. We are expecting some moderate winds (around 20-30 mph) and lots of rain from Hurricane Florence this weekend. Subject to change at any moment because we all know how accurate weather prediction is. Either way it shouldn't be anything major for us. I do need to cut the grass today, however. Looking for volunteers? Help an old man out???

My plan moving forward with this journal is to update only on the weekends or in the evening when I am not trading. I will make notes on the charts as the day goes on then post those when I update the journal.

Sure hope the markets wake up in a bit. They seem a bit sluggish overnight based on what I am seeing right now. I want to finish this step 1 on the combine today. Been dragging it out too much.

I tried hard over the weekend to get BloodHound to see what I thought I saw. It turned out to be another one of those things that is working well right now but looking back it really didn't do well in the long term. Someday.... someday.... LOL! As I work on each idea I find that there are several others that need to be checked out. Now that I have a good core to start with, I should be able to work through one or two each weekend. I am trying to develop something that can compensate for variances in volume. In other words, adjust to changing market conditions without human intervention. May have to build a few custom indicators to help BloodHound see some things it cannot right now.

Goals for the week: Keep stupid trades away. Finish step one of the combine (today if markets allow). Continue to grow personal account. Journal a little each day.

Today's price movement was like watching a baseball game. Long periods of nothing then BAM! an 18 point move in less than a minute. Not worth the risk. Every time a set up would begin to build it would either fall apart before I entered or just explode in one direction before you could get set up for entry. Volume is low again. Hope that changes on Tuesday.

No trades for me today. Not even going to try. And, I am good with that decision.

On a side note, I saw first hand the realities of someone trading live for the first time over the last week or so. This person blasted through an evaluation at a prop firm (not TopStep). They hit their profit target in around 4-5 days and had to coast for the last 10-11 days. Once funded and live (this persons first time EVER trading live) it only took him about 1 week to blow the account. The realities of trading live are as real as it will ever get for someone. The mental portion is the absolute toughest part to deal with and trading for a prop firm where you are evaluated for performance every 15 trading days doesn't really help. At first he tried to blame the difference between trading a demo account and a live account. Then he tried to "tweak" his system a little bit and today he posted that he blew the account by hitting the max trailing draw down. My guess is that when he started losing he never backed down on the number of contracts and just kept pushing it hard hoping to get back to break even. Just one home run and everything will be ok. Doesn't make much sense to try and hit a home run when you aren't even getting base hits.