I just watched today's webinar on the NinjaTrader order flow suite and during that webinar they talked in detail about the Order Flow Volume Profile indicator in NT. I now understand some of the multitude of settings it has and what they do and mean. I must say.... quite interesting to see it on my charts. I have it set up to draw profiles for every 60 bars on a 1 minute chart. I also have it extending the POC line from each hour. What's cool about that setting is it will only draw the line until price takes out that POC line. Nice since it doesn't clutter up the screen. Lots to learn but if you have that capability in NT watch the webinar once it is posted if you didn't see it today.

Not ready to trade with it of course. Just a new shiny thing for me to look at..... oooooohhh purty!! It makes for some interesting support/resistance and even price targets.

Too bad sleep is a requirement. 130+ point move overnight. That pushes price back above the 200 ema on the daily chart, at least for now. Overnight volume has been strong on NQ. Could be another "interesting" day.

Volume yesterday was impressive at over 1.1 million contracts. ES came up a little shy of 4 million. For all of the wild swings on NQ yesterday the day ended up pretty much where it started.




All of this volatility is making it hard to get a reasonable stop size on trades. I tried dropping down to a lower tick chart to get a decent stop but with all the volume that's like standing near the fence at a NASCAR race.



So, what am I going to do today? Stick to the higher tick charts. 500,1000,2000 etc. Wait for nothing but premium set ups and just take a smaller position and see what happens. With the crazy moves, if you get on the right side of the move even 1-3 contracts is generating serious rewards. I hope that patience will be rewarded today and that it won't cause analysis paralysis. With fewer opportunities hesitation is an even bigger enemy.

My yard is soggy from all the rain yesterday but no damage anywhere. It will take a few days for things to dry out enough to be able to cut the grass but that's just a nuisance and not a real problem. I feel bad for the people along the coastline of Florida/Alabama. Insane damage.

Took one set up today for 81 ticks. Being a Friday I didn't want to push it any further. Price movement was getting choppy anyway. Here is the set up I took. I used a set target for 81 ticks ( 20 points plus 1 tick for commissions). I had to increase the stop due to the wider swings. I increased the initial stop from 40 to 45 ticks for today. I needed nearly all of it. It came within 3-4 ticks of taking me out. Too close for comfort but I saw no reason to exit. Trade only took about 7-8 minutes.




I was looking for "premium" set ups. In this case price was down around 200 ema with the 60 ema above it so the intermediate trend was long. Found where one candle went in the direction of the trend followed by one against. I liked it even more since this occurred just below the 200 ema. Like it was thinking about changing direction. Set a buy stop limit (not a buy stop market due to how wild price movement has been) at the top of the body of the candles. Trade was taken on the 1000 tick chart.


I plan on working more on the trade signals in BloodHound this weekend and some tonight. Time to get serious about automation. Would like to eventually add CL, ES and 6E to the mix and having something that can enter the trade automatically would make that so much easier. Right now, NQ spread is swinging around too much for my taste. It used to hover around 1-2 ticks during the day a little more in the early morning trading. Today even during US session I am seeing 4-5 sometimes. Not saying I won't trade it but with the wild swings and the bigger spreads I am taking smaller positions, that leaves some capital available for other things. Might as well put it to work.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. Looking forward to next week already.

The fall season is the toughest for me for allergies. Sinus headache all day yesterday. Medicine kept me foggy so trading was at a minimum. I did magically pull around 50 ticks from the market but my brain wasn't functioning fast enough to keep up with price so I just stopped while I was ahead. It took me 3 trades to even squeeze that little bit from the market.

Price has gone a bit cold in the last few hours and all of the moving averages are huddled together for warmth. Will wait for some movement before taking a trade. Right now I would be guessing as to the direction.

1000 tick chart:



Spent a portion of last weekend trying to figure out a good way to take advantage of the volatility and not have to take such big stops. Lower time frames always look so nice when you are scanning back through the charts. In reality they can be tough to trade in a live environment. The sheer number of false signals makes the lower time frames expensive. It can be profitable but you have to be ok with a large number of break evens or small losses before you get in on the right side of a move. Couple that with commissions and it becomes hard to justify it.

I studied the 1000 tick chart in detail as well looking for some sort of pattern or indication that would help in getting in with a smaller stop but haven't found anything yet. The best answer at this point is just to take a smaller position and ride it as long as possible.

With all of the moving averages close together when I first looked at the charts this morning I decided to go conservative again and only take a premium set up. It tried to test my patience but finally showed itself. One other thing I did was not use a pending order since the markets are kind of jumpy. Instead I drew the box you see on the chart below and waited for a close above it. Worked out well. Was only in the market for about 3-5 minutes and took my target of 81 ticks. Hindsight says I should have just let it run. LOL! Nice up trend today. But, I am very happy with the results. 5 minutes and around $400 profit per contract, yeah I will take that any day.

Nice trade! So the pb to the 200 is the trade you were looking for?I follow this on forex on my 5min charts.Also, what is your view if we get a overshoot of the 200 ema?Do you want it it get above the 200 for an entry, or just treat it as an overshoot, and take the better fill?....Ive noticed, on my charts, if we blow through the 200, a PB to it,or the 21 ema can now be a PB entry continuing on
Bob

bobarian 

Nice trade! So the pb to the 200 is the trade you were looking for?I follow this on forex on my 5min charts.Also, what is your view if we get a overshoot of the 200 ema?Do you want it it get above the 200 for an entry, or just treat it as an overshoot, and take the better fill?....Ive noticed, on my charts, if we blow through the 200, a PB to it,or the 21 ema can now be a PB entry continuing on Bob

As long as the 21 ema (red line) stayed above the 200 ema (yellow line) the overshoot doesn't matter. I actually really like it when the signal shows up under the 200 ema with a little room to run before getting there. The more the merrier. Here is the exact sequence:

1. 60 above the 200 (intermediate trend is long) 21 ema (red line) needs to stay above the 200 ema.
2. Price came down at least to the 200 but in this case it went below. Even better.
3. One candle in the direction of the trend (long in this case)
4. Next candle opposite. Kind of like price is thinking about going long but is a bit shy.
5. Wait for candle to close over where I marked on the chart (above the high of the two candles)

Everything listed above is just opposite for short trades.

If I thought this was going to be a trending day I would wait for price to move some and then assign the stop to the 21 ema and let it rip. That would have given me 128 ticks instead of 81.

When I say I am looking for a premium set up this is what I am talking about (5 steps above). You can be a bit more aggressive by looking for the same set up but only dropping down to the 60 ema. In that case you want the 21 to be above the 60, price drops down to 60, one candle up, one candle down, close above high of two candles and off you go.

Wow.... watching price out of the corner of my eye while typing this. Rocket ride!!

Perfect more aggressive entry I was talking about in previous post:

TradingOgre 

As long as the 21 ema (red line) stayed above the 200 ema (yellow line) the overshoot doesn't matter. I actually really like it when the signal shows up under the 200 ema with a little room to run before getting there. The more the merrier. Here is the exact sequence: 1. 60 above the 200 (intermediate trend is long) 21 ema (red line) needs to stay above the 200 ema. 2. Price came down at least to the 200 but in this case it went below. Even better. 3. One candle in the direction of the trend (long in this case) 4. Next candle opposite. Kind of like price is thinking about going long but is a bit shy. 5. Wait for candle to close over where I marked on the chart (above the high of the two candles) Everything listed above is just opposite for short trades. If I thought this was going to be a trending day I would wait for price to move some and then assign the stop to the 21 ema and let it rip. That would have given me 128 ticks instead of 81. When I say I am looking for a premium set up this is what I am talking about (5 steps above). You can be a bit more aggressive by looking for the same set up but only dropping down to the 60 ema. In that case you want the 21 to be above the 60, price drops down to 60, one candle up, one candle down, close above high of two candles and off you go. Wow.... watching price out of the corner of my eye while typing this. Rocket ride!!

Why not replace all these EMA's with VWAP? The VWAP gives the same levels no matter the time frame, minute or tick or volume or range bars? Your entry today was a bit after price did test the VWAP almost to the tick.

trendisyourfriend 

Why not replace all these EMA's with VWAP? The VWAP gives the same levels no matter the time frame, minute or tick or volume or range bars? Your entry today was a bit after price did test the VWAP almost to the tick.

VWAP would have worked nicely in that case but missed on the second example where price only came down to the 60 ema later in the day. There are a number of scenario's these 4 moving averages help me see. There are at least 8 that have varying degrees of aggressiveness. Reversals, early entries, etc.

I like VWAP and I have had it on my charts on and off over the last few months but I always seem to gravitate back to this style of trading. Old habits die hard. LOL!