drinkurmilkshake 

The only concerning part of these setups is the high risk. The SD Continuation Long trade risked 35 ticks and got stopped out. PA quickly moved back into the +SD1 band (+SD 0.75 to +1.25). Have you run these setups through enough sims to substantiate placing the stop all the way down to +SD 0.5? The value in ticks in relative, but PA traveled from your entry @ approximately +SD 1.35 down to +SD 0.5. The majority of these trades are inherently risky. I know that you recommend more risk adverse traders tighten their stops, however i'd be interested to see what you sim history has been.

From reading responses to posts, you can usually get some idea of whether there is some psychological work that a trader should concentrate on. Keeping the mind well tuned is vital for becoming a profitable trader. This is no criticism Milkshake so please do not read it as such, I’m merely making an observation.

The trade that lost $1700 on the marked up chart that JohnnyBoy illustrated seemed to strike fear into you Milkshake resulting in you requesting proof of the profitability of the methodology. This is a classical flight or fight response when something that you’ve interacted with does not match your own internal idea or thought process.
My interpretation of the chart is slightly different. From reading the posts of JohnnyBoy in this thread, he has given the community an unbelievable idea and technique to trade the markets. It is very sound and it definitely has a very demonstrable edge. The loss of $1700 on multiple contracts is really just one of the trades of many probably very profitable trades that his technique would generate. JohnnyBoy obviously knows his methodology very well and this losing trade was one of the costs of doing business in the markets. It is actually even more commendable that JB showed this actual chart and didn’t try and cherry pick a day or chart where all trades were profitable.
Trading is a game of numbers where your edge needs to work over time, not everyday. There are going to be losing days in trading but you have to just stick to your rules and plan everyday, like JB illustrated here, and you will end up being profitable and successful.

TraderDoc007 

From reading responses to posts, you can usually get some idea of whether there is some psychological work that a trader should concentrate on. Keeping the mind well tuned is vital for becoming a profitable trader. This is no criticism Milkshake so please do not read it as such, I’m merely making an observation. The trade that lost $1700 on the marked up chart that JohnnyBoy illustrated seemed to strike fear into you Milkshake resulting in you requesting proof of the profitability of the methodology. This is a classical flight or fight response when something that you’ve interacted with does not match your own internal idea or thought process. My interpretation of the chart is slightly different. From reading the posts of JohnnyBoy in this thread, he has given the community an unbelievable idea and technique to trade the markets. It is very sound and it definitely has a very demonstrable edge. The loss of $1700 on multiple contracts is really just one of the trades of many probably very profitable trades that his technique would generate. JohnnyBoy obviously knows his methodology very well and this losing trade was one of the costs of doing business in the markets. It is actually even more commendable that JB showed this actual chart and didn’t try and cherry pick a day or chart where all trades were profitable. Trading is a game of numbers where your edge needs to work over time, not everyday. There are going to be losing days in trading but you have to just stick to your rules and plan everyday, like JB illustrated here, and you will end up being profitable and successful.

Hi!

Well said.
There are several calculators to get an idea of how many winners and loosers in a row a strategy can have.

EquityCurveSimulator

To prepare mentally is very imprtant.

josh 

OBS Studio - free, wonderful, and easy to use once you invest 15-30 minutes to learn it. If you have a good GPU and set it to use hardware for encoding, you will not notice it's running. If you use software encoding, you will likely have to record at a lower framerate or resolution in order to ensure it doesn't affect your machine's performance while trading.

I've heard of this one! I was a bit overwhelmed with learning it, but will take the time to check it out Thank you!

paigow 

hi Maizietrader I also use sierra and so far, I have been unable to create these charts. The vwap that I have used does not have the same number of sd and I am not sure what you mean by 1vwap and 2 vwap. Please explain here or send me an email at [email protected]. That way, I wont miss your response. Thanks Don

1- Studies: chose Volume Weighted Averge Price

2- Setting and input: Make Band1 STD 0.25 and Band 2 Std -0.25

3- subgraphs: Top Band1 : Transparent Fill Bottom and Top Band2: Transparent Fill Top

You can repeat this for every band as this will give you the middle one (make another 4 for +1VWAP, -1VWAP, +2VWAP and -2VWAP)

Good Luck

HI Maizietrader

Thanks for responding.

I am just learning about vwaps and rolling vwaps anchoring and non anchoring

Still not sure if I have the correct setup

Using vwaps makes sense to me

You have been most gracious in replying


Thanks

Be safe

TraderDoc007 

From reading responses to posts, you can usually get some idea of whether there is some psychological work that a trader should concentrate on. Keeping the mind well tuned is vital for becoming a profitable trader. This is no criticism Milkshake so please do not read it as such, I’m merely making an observation. The trade that lost $1700 on the marked up chart that JohnnyBoy illustrated seemed to strike fear into you Milkshake resulting in you requesting proof of the profitability of the methodology. This is a classical flight or fight response when something that you’ve interacted with does not match your own internal idea or thought process. My interpretation of the chart is slightly different. From reading the posts of JohnnyBoy in this thread, he has given the community an unbelievable idea and technique to trade the markets. It is very sound and it definitely has a very demonstrable edge. The loss of $1700 on multiple contracts is really just one of the trades of many probably very profitable trades that his technique would generate. JohnnyBoy obviously knows his methodology very well and this losing trade was one of the costs of doing business in the markets. It is actually even more commendable that JB showed this actual chart and didn’t try and cherry pick a day or chart where all trades were profitable. Trading is a game of numbers where your edge needs to work over time, not everyday. There are going to be losing days in trading but you have to just stick to your rules and plan everyday, like JB illustrated here, and you will end up being profitable and successful.

@TraderDoc007 I completely understand that every trade is not going to be a winner, and losses happen. I've greatly enhanced my trading integrating @JohnnyBoy VWAP setups with my existing order flow indicators. My interest is in where his setups' stops are located. I believe he said he has the data/probabilities for stop hits and draw downs trading these setups. My question is whether in his trading, if providing the "breathing room" of up to 1.12 SDs maintains a positive expectancy. In a previous post his records show about a 69% success rate. I wouldn't be surprised if he has an average R-multiple of 2-3R/trade. I'm assuming it does, and I'm only looking to optimize where I place stops. I like to cut a trade when draw down turns into what I perceive as a losing trade.

Many of the VWAP setups that I've started to look at have some draw down as with most trades. This is all anecdotal (I haven't started to journal SIM trades yet), but most of the profitable moves don't maintain more than about ~0.25 SD. If a wider stop is prudent though, and shown to be more profitable in the long run, I'm more than willing to adjust my SLs. I'm used to placing stops around Wyckoff waves, which aren't married to VWAP calculations.

Hey @JonnyBoy, you said..." In my experience, stocks appear to conform to the VWAP setups ''better'' than any futures instrument does. I don't have any evidence per se to prove this, but I guess experience has taught me that.

I find that trading the VWAP of futures instruments is a little more challenging but IMO it is an essential thing to be able to do. Since VWAP is an uncomplicated benchmark, most VWAP trading strategies are simple and relatively quick to execute."

Just curious... if stocks conform better than futures to VWAP then why do you feel it is "an essential thing to be able to do"? Why not stick with stocks and forget Futures? I ask this because I am really intrigued by your VWAP method. I have been out of trading for a while and I'm looking to get back into it. I just wondered if I should start looking at this method using stocks first as you have suggested.

Thanks for all the info you have provided on VWAP!

BTW I keep seeing a message at the top of my screen saying how many days (265) that I have been a member of this community but I haven't posted anything yet so I figured Mother's Day would be a good day to make my first post LOL!

Jason

Plankton 

Hey @JonnyBoy, you said..." In my experience, stocks appear to conform to the VWAP setups ''better'' than any futures instrument does. I don't have any evidence per se to prove this, but I guess experience has taught me that. I find that trading the VWAP of futures instruments is a little more challenging but IMO it is an essential thing to be able to do. Since VWAP is an uncomplicated benchmark, most VWAP trading strategies are simple and relatively quick to execute." Just curious... if stocks conform better than futures to VWAP then why do you feel it is "an essential thing to be able to do"? Why not stick with stocks and forget Futures? I ask this because I am really intrigued by your VWAP method. I have been out of trading for a while and I'm looking to get back into it. I just wondered if I should start looking at this method using stocks first as you have suggested. Thanks for all the info you have provided on VWAP! BTW I keep seeing a message at the top of my screen saying how many days (265) that I have been a member of this community but I haven't posted anything yet so I figured Mother's Day would be a good day to make my first post LOL! Jason

I guess old habits die hard! I essentially started trading the ES more than a decade a go and I can't seem to let go of it. It is one of the challenging markets to get to grips with though, I agree with that!

The ES is where I feel the most comfortable now...but...if I was starting out all over again (and this is only my opinion) I would certainly start by swing trading stocks or indexes of the futures instruments. @mtzimmer1 I believe does this and think it is an excellent way to begin trading. You can keep your risk and losses in check.

My trading personality now, doesn't really allow for me to scan a multitude of stocks looking for VWAP setups in the making. However, if I was doing this all over again I would most certainly ''train'' myself to do this. Why? Because you can scan for the cream of the crop VWAP setups and not have to worry about walking the thin grey line between decision and execution. There will always be stocks to trade instead of waiting or perhaps forcing a setup to happen on a single instrument.

At the end of the day, we are all on a voyage to discover more efficient ways to trade. I still learn every trading day. And my hope with this thread is for people to discover new things that I perhaps haven't discovered myself yet and take what I have given and make it even better.

Thanks for the reply @JonnyBoy!

I've been in the Lion's cage many times over many years of trading off and on and every time she has whooped my tail and threw me out of her cage on my butt. Maybe this time I will be a little smarter and have a few more weapons in my arsenal to tame that cotton pick'en lion this time thanks to you.

Cheers!

Jason

paigow 

HI Maizietrader Thanks for responding. I am just learning about vwaps and rolling vwaps anchoring and non anchoring Still not sure if I have the correct setup Using vwaps makes sense to me You have been most gracious in replying Thanks Be safe

don't use the rolling now (maybe later when you start playing with it). good luck