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I did not explain myself well enough, I can see. I apologize for that.
What I meant in regards to luck:
When I develop a trading strategy, I get a historical equity curve. This equity curve could be all edge (great!) or the trading rules could somehow have taken advantage of random noise - in other words, the strategy could have gotten lucky with that data (pretty terrible).
In all likelihood, a historical backtest has some of both - performance due to edge, and performance to luck (via how well the strategy reacts to market noise).
The trick is to make sure you do not count on the luck continuing.
So I agree 100% with you that "anyone who thinks good n bad luck play a part in trading edge or profits" is a bad thing. No trader should depend on luck.
The tough part, as I see it, is that it is not always easy to know for sure what part is edge and what part is luck.
Isn't it the case that 'luck' can have a huge effect over a small number of trades (say 10, 20 or 50) - good or otherwise - but that over a larger sample ( a few thousand) the good and bad will more or less cancel each other out. Or, the impact will be relatively small - small enough to be considered just part of trading that particular strategy.
Dogs sniffing is not random at all! Obviously they are looking for something and moving to better sniffs..usually they end up finding another dogs pile of poo.
Laying in bed thinking about luck vs skill. The more skillful you are the less luck involved and I would say that this inverse relationship just might be they key to understanding a solid edge. If you are in a trade n feel like you got lucky then you obviously have zero skill n zero control of the outcome
I have control over every single 1 lot I place. I can control the amount of gain and I can control the amount of loss to a point. If I forget what time it is and feds talling at 11.30 and I get long at 11.29 and mkt tanks well that was not me being unlucky that we me being asleep at the wheel! If I'm driving and die in a car crash cuz u fell asleep is that unlucky? No it's me not pulling over seeing the warning signs.
It all boils down to your own skill set with trading. Is it hard to make money consistently in the short intraday time frames...absolutely!
Over the past 10 years has it been hard to make money with nuy and hold? No!!
I agree on the part about finding strategies that work for your personality.
Never try to trade like someone else. Do your own thing.
I became profitable when I focused on just a few types of entries and just kept on taking the same entries over and over.
Do I miss trades? Yes. Do I get several losses in a row? Yes, but I also get several wins in a row that surpasses the losses.
There's always hidden variables - i.e. things you can't know or see. Your strategy needs a high probability of success to be able to jump over hidden variables.
Good post.
But with point 1 - have you determined that this way of moving to BE adds to your edge/profitability? It is a form of micro-managment really. How many of these then go on to be winners?