josh 

Yeah, I didn't even attempt a trade in HSI tonight, Nikkei was a bit more manageable, even though it has been incredibly wild as well. Buy it, and it's up 250 points in about 90 seconds ... nuts is right! Early in the session there was about an 8 tick spread.

When Mack (Price Action Trading Guru) takes time off when the markets are crazy says something...."its dangerous"...the allusion of big profits in these markets atm is a fantasy at best.....its damn hard to trade.

Week 16-20th March 2020

A good week except for today I blew-out with 3 losing trades at the start....got whip-sawed in a big-bar range - couldn't see the forest from the tree's....if you cant read a chart don't day trade....idiot!! So easy to spot in hindsight....might have to devise a "confusion" indicator to prompt me to be careful...

The volatility has been HUGE this week and the b/o much wider than normal and fills much slower..so many missed trades either from slow execution or as I can see them setting up but the signal bar range blows past the normal stop loss levels .....so I've ADAPTED to the volatility......I've done 2 things....

1) All week I've been back to 1 contract - double target level and double stop loss so in effect same risk as previously on a 2lot.

2) today I switched the chart from a 750tic to a 500tic....this does 2 things....bars are smaller - hence lower risk but they are printed 33% faster than my original settings...I'll go back to 750 when things come back to normal but it appears to have worked ok today...will continue on with this setting into next week...given the markets are fractal I'm assuming all the set-ups will continue working(seems to be as I had 7 winners in a row after the change) ....it's nice to see ranges under 50 tics...ridiculous.

Enough ranting.

Weekly summary:
16 - 65 tics
17 - 53 tics
18 - 50 tics
19 - 74 tics
20 - (59) tics - first 3 losing trades really hurt but battled back to reduce most of the loss. First losing day this month.

All the best..

Godzilla 

Week 16-20th March 2020 All the best..

Nice -- I was wondering how you've handled the HSI this week. This week I caught quite a few 60-100 tick runs, with 1000 point ranges it's quite incredible. When the spread is 10 ticks, it makes sense to widen out. I traded the mini HSI and could level up with 3-4 contracts without feeling overly big (I watch the HSI but the orders go through on the mini HSI). This market can move 80 ticks in a minute right now, and I'm not keen on trading single lots, so the mini HSI has been perfect for me lately.

josh 

Nice -- I was wondering how you've handled the HSI this week. This week I caught quite a few 60-100 tick runs, with 1000 point ranges it's quite incredible. When the spread is 10 ticks, it makes sense to widen out. I traded the mini HSI and could level up with 3-4 contracts without feeling overly big (I watch the HSI but the orders go through on the mini HSI). This market can move 80 ticks in a minute right now, and I'm not keen on trading single lots, so the mini HSI has been perfect for me lately.

Josh,

I think trading the mini is a good idea assuming the liquidity is ok? Going for "runners" is a good idea in these markets as it can just run away with very little pause or pull back.....I've really had to use good patience for entries as the market goes into trend mode and you cant get a low risk "trap" entry for love or money....very frustrating.

Another option is trade the HKChinaEnterprise futs instead? I haven't looked at them in over a year??

I've also tried not to use market orders if possible given the "VIG" (b/o) is so wide now and your just giving away money paying it. That 10tic b/o was my original 1st target in normal circumstances.

Great to hear your doing well..

Godzilla 

Josh, I think trading the mini is a good idea assuming the liquidity is ok? Going for "runners" is a good idea in these markets as it can just run away with very little pause or pull back.....I've really had to use good patience for entries as the market goes into trend mode and you cant get a low risk "trap" entry for love or money....very frustrating. Another option is trade the HKChinaEnterprise futs instead? I haven't looked at them in over a year?? I've also tried not to use market orders if possible given the "VIG" (b/o) is so wide now and your just giving away money paying it. That 10tic b/o was my original 1st target in normal circumstances. Great to hear your doing well..

Well, when I say "runner" what I mean is really to stay with the trade as long as it's working. The HSI loves to nibble and nibble and squeeze until it has squeezed every last bit out of one side, and then it will turn (all markets really do this to some degree bug HSI seems to be particularly keen on this). Another way to say it is, if the spread is 6-10 ticks, which it is right now, then I don't want to even think about taking a trade unless I expect to get 30 or 40 ticks, at a minimum. Anything less than that is almost noise. If you can nail a decent entry and give it 20 or 30 ticks max, there's a good chance of catching 50 to 80 ticks, in recent days.

The liquidity is pretty good. Basically, let's say I'm long and I want to get out. On my ladder if the HSI is trading 20200 x 20209 for example, I'll just hit around 20190. I'm willing to give it 15 ticks to ensure I get out when I want to. If I were to put the limit at 20205, I might get a fill, but I might not, and it might run 20 ticks against me immediately. I'll put in the order for a target sometimes, but I find that often it will hit me and run another 20 ticks anyway, so I usually hit out with a marketable limit instead of letting it hit me.

I never ever use market orders unless I need to truly get out NOW. It's a blank check, and with these volatile times it could mean in the HSI that you get out at 30 or 40 ticks past where you see the market right now.

Interesting times, and happy that you're doing well also. Thanks, my Asian session trading buddy

josh 

Well, when I say "runner" what I mean is really to stay with the trade as long as it's working. The HSI loves to nibble and nibble and squeeze until it has squeezed every last bit out of one side, and then it will turn (all markets really do this to some degree bug HSI seems to be particularly keen on this). Another way to say it is, if the spread is 6-10 ticks, which it is right now, then I don't want to even think about taking a trade unless I expect to get 30 or 40 ticks, at a minimum. Anything less than that is almost noise. If you can nail a decent entry and give it 20 or 30 ticks max, there's a good chance of catching 50 to 80 ticks, in recent days. The liquidity is pretty good. Basically, let's say I'm long and I want to get out. On my ladder if the HSI is trading 20200 x 20209 for example, I'll just hit around 20190. I'm willing to give it 15 ticks to ensure I get out when I want to. If I were to put the limit at 20205, I might get a fill, but I might not, and it might run 20 ticks against me immediately. I'll put in the order for a target sometimes, but I find that often it will hit me and run another 20 ticks anyway, so I usually hit out with a marketable limit instead of letting it hit me. I never ever use market orders unless I need to truly get out NOW. It's a blank check, and with these volatile times it could mean in the HSI that you get out at 30 or 40 ticks past where you see the market right now. Interesting times, and happy that you're doing well also. Thanks, my Asian session trading buddy

Wow - today was extreme....a couple of silly trades and was under water and ready to walk away then suddenly I switched back to the 750tic chart and it was like I could see properly again.....ended up making +100tics today!!
It's so choppy and really have to respect the S/R levels as they appear..weird times I'm afraid.

Godzilla 

Wow - today was extreme....a couple of silly trades and was under water and ready to walk away then suddenly I switched back to the 750tic chart and it was like I could see properly again.....ended up making +100tics today!! It's so choppy and really have to respect the S/R levels as they appear..weird times I'm afraid.

Awesome -- I find that I trade the best when I'm down, which is of course a major problem. When I'm down, I tend to get more focused, am more willing to use size, and often do my best trading. This is a big mental adjustment I'm in the process of making -- to be super focused and aggressive when I'm flat or up on the day. Still have a long way to go!

I hope you don't mind me sharing my trades from last night on your journal. I did this chart and think it's a cool way to visualize max position size, etc. I was trading the mini HSI and got 385 ticks. After commissions the net was 293 ticks. This shows the pretty big overhead of the mini HSI, but it's ok with me for now, as I gain more confidence trading it. What I like about this particular session was that it was well behaved, and I traded that range in the middle there pretty well, enough to grind it out.


Something I really need to improve is that I will tend to try to trade other markets like ES and Nikkei. Well, I was up 150 points in the Nikkei and finished down -90 because I was trying to trade it off the HSI, which was just a stupid thing to do. They had their Olympics rally and it just was pretty disconnected from the HSI, much more bid really.


I need to improve my ability to hold a breakout, for example the one from 21800 to 2200. And look at that open. I was a buyer but missed about 200 ticks because the pre-open still scares me and I was doing well to just be in it Lots to improve but shows how you and I can do well scalping out an instrument which moves so freely. I really do like this market right now.

josh 

Awesome -- I find that I trade the best when I'm down, which is of course a major problem. When I'm down, I tend to get more focused, am more willing to use size, and often do my best trading. This is a big mental adjustment I'm in the process of making -- to be super focused and aggressive when I'm flat or up on the day. Still have a long way to go! I hope you don't mind me sharing my trades from last night on your journal. I did this chart and think it's a cool way to visualize max position size, etc. I was trading the mini HSI and got 385 ticks. After commissions the net was 293 ticks. This shows the pretty big overhead of the mini HSI, but it's ok with me for now, as I gain more confidence trading it. What I like about this particular session was that it was well behaved, and I traded that range in the middle there pretty well, enough to grind it out. Something I really need to improve is that I will tend to try to trade other markets like ES and Nikkei. Well, I was up 150 points in the Nikkei and finished down -90 because I was trying to trade it off the HSI, which was just a stupid thing to do. They had their Olympics rally and it just was pretty disconnected from the HSI, much more bid really. I need to improve my ability to hold a breakout, for example the one from 21800 to 2200. And look at that open. I was a buyer but missed about 200 ticks because the pre-open still scares me and I was doing well to just be in it Lots to improve but shows how you and I can do well scalping out an instrument which moves so freely. I really do like this market right now.

Morning Josh(evening for you).

Of course no issue posting your chart here....we can learn more.

Wow - looking at your chart - you are SUPER active trading volume wise...like on steroids!!
293 tics is AMAZING - power to you buddy...it's good to know whats possible.
My only suggestion for holding for bigger gains is using a Trailing Stop....or a manual technique is to exit (assuming a long position) when the current bar low trades below the previous bar low (I hope that makes sense) - I've never really looked into but I really should investigate further as your tic gains are HUGE....I just want to get to a consistent 100tic/day as my next trading goal from a 2-lot.

You can make the day's trading profit target in 1 trade with this trade alone.....you have definitely given me some motivation to investigate further.

Godzilla 

Morning Josh(evening for you). Of course no issue posting your chart here....we can learn more. Wow - looking at your chart - you are SUPER active trading volume wise...like on steroids!! 293 tics is AMAZING - power to you buddy...it's good to know whats possible. My only suggestion for holding for bigger gains is using a Trailing Stop....or a manual technique is to exit (assuming a long position) when the current bar low trades below the previous bar low (I hope that makes sense) - I've never really looked into but I really should investigate further as your tic gains are HUGE....I just want to get to a consistent 100tic/day as my next trading goal from a 2-lot. You can make the day's trading profit target in 1 trade with this trade alone.....you have definitely given me some motivation to investigate further.

Actually you have been giving me motivation with your consistency - thanks for continuing to be active here. I think it all depends on the type of day and move. As you can see from my chart above, I missed a LOT of meat in the pre open when they were buying aggressively. In that time, it makes sense to let the market pay you. But in the chop, when I was active, holding for a move will get you chopped up and can lose a lot there. So, as always, the key I think is trading the market, taking what it gives, not trying to take what we want.

A note about the pre-open -- it's really quite dangerous though opportunity is there. The HSI in general is thin right now but during the pre-open it will trade 50 ticks with only a handful of contracts trading. No liquidity, and have to be supremely careful. That said, the action yesterday at the opening left me with a lot of hope -- the spread was tighter, I could read the order flow more easily, and it looked a bit more normal. Same with ES today at the open, it was very constructive action. With VIX continuing to drop, and with traders around the world growing accustomed to the new normal of the moment, I think we will see a bit more sane action!

josh 

Actually you have been giving me motivation with your consistency - thanks for continuing to be active here. I think it all depends on the type of day and move. As you can see from my chart above, I missed a LOT of meat in the pre open when they were buying aggressively. In that time, it makes sense to let the market pay you. But in the chop, when I was active, holding for a move will get you chopped up and can lose a lot there. So, as always, the key I think is trading the market, taking what it gives, not trying to take what we want. A note about the pre-open -- it's really quite dangerous though opportunity is there. The HSI in general is thin right now but during the pre-open it will trade 50 ticks with only a handful of contracts trading. No liquidity, and have to be supremely careful. That said, the action yesterday at the opening left me with a lot of hope -- the spread was tighter, I could read the order flow more easily, and it looked a bit more normal. Same with ES today at the open, it was very constructive action. With VIX continuing to drop, and with traders around the world growing accustomed to the new normal of the moment, I think we will see a bit more sane action!

I "used" to trade the pre-open with a simple trigger of (M-Th) IF opening bar is UP go long H+1tic and on Fridays take the second bar - H+1tic and opposite for shorts.....it works but you have to be lightening fast to execute at times and very easy to miss the entry....more stress than it was worth so I ignore them for now but like yesterday's move it can capture some BIG moves. I just want to take only the best set-ups. Less stress.

Yes - agree I think the VIX has topped (hope) nice little ES pop on the open this morning that slowly pulling back losses on my ASX retirement account..