So last night (Sunday 3rd Dec'23) Gold opens and immediately rallies 60c/oz and sets new ALL TIME HIGH PRICES (approx %2150/oz) for gold not just this futures contract. Here we are 2 hours into the regular trading session and Gold is now down almost 50c/oz. GZG4 has had a $1.139/oz range today. WTF is going on?

I was watching the DOM as it started going off last night. It started in earnest when the 2100 level broke to the upside, which caused, what looked to me, like a classic Sunday night stop run. After the initial break, the market retested 2100, which held pretty nicely, giving the intraday momentum players the green light to climb aboard.



Thin overnight markets in gold have a tendency to cause exaggerated moves and this was clearly the case last night. It's also quite likely that there were some options hedging programs involved, given the large OI in the 2100 calls. Some of this is obviously conjecture on my part - call it an educated guess - but this is far from the first time gold has been weird and erratic on a Sunday night.

Interestingly, gold's inability to hold 2150s sparked the reversal, and now that all of the shorts have been stopped out and the momentum guys got on the train at lofty prices, there's no one left to buy total bull trap. Painful for many, I'm sure.

At this point, given sentiment and positioning here I would not at all be surprised to see bounces get sold. But that's a low conviction call...

GCG4 was up over 32c on Friday as well. So Sunday highs were almost a $1 over Friday lows. Even with the complete reversal today, today's low still well above last weeks low and the one week change tonight is still up!

Not futures specific but interesting read/discussion on Gold, Silver & the Miners...

Bytetree :- Gold Miners versus Silver
https://www.bytetree.com/research/2024/03/gold-miners-versus-silver/

There's also this, for what it's worth.
Gold ETF Flows: February 2024
Outflows sustained into February
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2024/03.
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Hi all! I have a question please

Now gold has updated its 2011 high, if look at the spot. And it didn’t update, if look at the GC futures.

What should I do in this case if I trade futures? Should I look at the spot price?

CapitalCaptain 

Hi all! I have a question please Now gold has updated its 2011 high, if look at the spot. And it didn’t update, if look at the GC futures. What should I do in this case if I trade futures? Should I look at the spot price?

That's a good question. I would focus on the futures market since you do trade GC. I'm sure the spot price has value in the price discovery but you are trading with other futures traders that agree on a price sometime in the future not the current spot price.

Gold is one of those markets where forward prices are highly arbitrage-able and most of the time forward contracts trade at cost of carry (ie interest) plus cost of storage. (Unlike something like Crude or Natgas)

Big reversal in precious metals today. I am sure the uptrend is still intact with gold and silver even with the big sell off this afternoon. The strong dollar seems to be taking some of the momentum out of gold/silver on the short term. Precious metals seem to be finally participating in the inflation trade even though they are late to the party. I am guessing we will see higher prices in the next few months.