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I have been a member of FIO for a number of years and unfortunately have not had too much time to spend on the site contributing until the last couple of months. Even now, I drop in to the site whenever I can, but it isn't as much as I would like to, because I really would like to try and help those traders who are struggling with their endeavour to become profitable. What I have noticed, and it seems to be a common theme, is that all failing traders want proof of anything or everything that one contributes. They do not read and understand the thoughts and words in front of them and immediately become defensive and try and argue, ridicule and insult. Today, this happened once again and I was challenged for the umpteenth time by a failing trader so I thought I would give a brief outline and show my methodology and system and hopefully some struggling traders might be able to see what might be possible.
A brief background - I was a failed struggling trader for many years (15 years) to be exact. I would have spectacular growth in my account, and then spectacular failures. The cash flowed in and flowed out at a similar rate. Consistency was just never there. I couldn't make it and keep it. I would have a few winners in a row and then I'd become cocky and really start cranking it up. I would be overleveraged in an under capitalized account and it did not take long until the account was done.
The last straw for me was an account that I wiped out in the 2008/2009 bear market. I was disgusted with myself and said I would not trade again until I worked out what I needed to do to become successful. I felt I didn't have a means of trading that was mine, that I was comfortable with, that was non discretionary. I traded a whole lot of different techniques but each one did not fit my personality. Each time I blew up an account, I became more determined to succeed and put in more work and read more books. All of that extra reading and seeking was a total waste of time, as the problem wasn't going to be cured by another book, it was a problem with my non existent methodology and damaged psyche. I needed to formulate a system that incorporated those 2 aspects and that fitted my personality. Something that I could trade with ease and not question or second guess. I now sometimes look back at those days with horror, as I refused to face the reality of the 3 most important aspects of trading - a good methodology, a well trained mind and to never be over leveraged.
I wanted to design something that fitted my personality, something that wasn't boring and that would keep me engaged. Something that would be universal, would work in any market, and that had exact specific rules that I could/would not deviate from. I wanted to overcome the "seat of my pants" trading method - I wanted a more structured approach.
In my quest, I looked at as many aspects that I could, from pure price structure, to pattern trading to combinations of canned indicators to pure order flow. None of these struck me as appealing as there was too much interpretation needed and nothing that fitted the bill of being universal.
I decided to start with a clean slate and came up with 4 requirements/characteristics:
1) It had to be universal - I wanted to trade any market
2) It had to give me the answer as to whether I needed to be long or short at any time
3) It had to be non discretionary - if it told me to be long or short, I wanted exact entries, stops and profit targets. The only change I have made in my system the past 8 years has been to change profit targets. The entries and stops are fixed, but I use some discretion in my profit targets - I let the market tell me when it is time to book profits.
4) It had to be easy to identify, with just a glance, as to whether I should be long or short. This I achieved with colour as I do enjoy bright colours.
To cut a very long story short, I developed my own 2 indicators - the first tells me whether I should be long or short, my entry prices and stop. The 2nd tells me the "power" of the move in the selected direction. In order to be universal for any market, I incorporated adaptability into both indicators so they adapt to any chart they are placed on - there is no tweaking any parameters - every market and time/price frame utilizes the exact same indicator parameters.
Attached are a few charts from Friday's session. I really do not want this discussion to get into what the indicators are and questions related to the indicators as they are proprietary and I cannot give them up. I really just want to show to all those who insult and ridicule, that I have a defined way of trading and I have mastered my system. I have included charts from some of my favourite markets that I enjoy trading. I have used the same time frame for all charts.
The methodology will be explained on the first chart with arrows. I traded a lot of silver on Friday so I have annotated that chart:
The midline colour tells me whether I should be long or short - blue for longs, magenta for shorts.
The green arrows show where entries would occur - midline first entry, first dashed grey line my 2nd entry and 3rd dashed line my 3rd entry. The orange arrow and red dashed line is my stop line.
The indicator on the bottom of the chart is what I call the VelAccel - it shows me the power of the market in the up or down direction. The white arrow shows a purple line that is a threshold value. This adapts to market behaviour just like the midline adapts to the markets volatility and movement. This chart shows a great example that if a market is strong, you might not be able to get in as there were no retracements to the midline. I then utilize my VelAccel to enter, each orange arrow indicating entry points.
The rest of the charts just show different markets with the same methodology/system. There is an Emini S&P, a Euro and a Crude oil chart.
In conclusion, if you are a failing or non consistent trader, you need to know that there is a way to trade that could find you consistency and profitability. This is my way which I have mastered. You need to find your way. Don't always doubt and ridicule those that try and help. Although I will try and answer questions if they arise, please be aware that it might not be immediately.
Trading is a job, maybe even comparable to a sport, if you practice directly in the order book for example. If I lose, it is because I did not do my job properly, or not enough training. I am not interested in what other people do, I tell myself that before I enter the arena I need an advantage, and it is up to me to find out what it is. So I develop my trading tools too.
To begin with I set myself a set of specifications, and I try to build on that.
Trading is a lot of work without the certainty of winning one day, that's why you have to be passionate.
As a passage of grades in sport, the spychology changes, and you have to go through steps, the simple fact of copying methods is not enough, your mentality must follow, evolve and it takes time, there are sometimes no shortcuts.
Forget the indicators or adopt them with their defects but do not waste too much time with them, they are often lures.
Great points and thanks for sharing. Following your sports metaphor, at game-time, it comes down to execution. The coaches can prepare players, players can practice 'til their eyes bleed, but failure to execute results in losses more often than not. A good pair of cleats/boots/swim trunks (indicators) can only get you so far.
You make a number of points that are really important and quite true.
Each individual needs to find a way of trading that satisfies themselves not simply rely on a system or method that someone has shown or taught in some seminar. In order to have any edge or advantage you need to develop your own tools. All the canned tools/indicators that might be available are not as effective as they used to be as trading has evolved immensely over the past 20 years and is ultra competitive today with killer traders waiting to exploit and take advantage of mediocrity. One has to think outside the box in order to be successful.
I totally agree, you need to be passionate and obsessive if you want to be successful trading. You have to have a burning desire to be successful and then you need to define the path to that success.
Evidence or stats for what? I’m not trying to claim or prove anything. I’ve shown you what I look at everyday when I trade. If you cannot see the simplicity and the beauty of what I’ve illustrated then I have nothing more to offer you. All I was trying to show is I’ve tried to take all the guesswork and stress out of deciding, at any moment in time, in the heat of battle, whether I should be long or short in any market and where I would enter and place my stop. You are talking about a whole different topic related to profitability and actual trading details.
No problem, I really just want to try and illustrate that there are many ways to trade and each trader needs to find the system that works for them and satisfies all their requirements. I hope it gives some struggling traders some ideas to possibly look at. There are some keywords in the post that could assist as a starting point.
Evidence or stats for how your strategy has performed over a long period of time. You know, winrate, average winner / loser, etc? It doesn't matter if your strategy is beautiful or simple. I've seen a lot of beautiful strategies that lose lots of money. That's great that the system makes all the decisions for you, but I don't believe it will make anybody money.
I’m really not too concerned what you choose to believe or not. My intention wasn’t to make anyone believers, I’m simply giving some ideas. If you cannot see how my strategy makes money then you possibly have not read and understood the post properly.