Friday

Today we opened in prior day HL range. Combined with a long IB, there have been 112 occasions in the past 11 years.

When I add filters on prior day OC ‘green’, the short trades look pretty good. Adding prior day HL range to the filters even make the results better.

DAX Short trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15306
Exit 10:30 @ 15273
SL 27 pts
Result 33 pts

Historical results with this setup:
343 pts (17 trades/win% 82%)

Let's see

Results

This week I had 3 trades in this (restarted) journal, 40 points profit.

I have been working on setups (hard rules). For up – and down gaps the rules are set. For the days without a gap, there are much more occasions. I have to filter these down to find setups, in a way, that I’m not cherry picking. Work in progress.

I’m happy to start the first week with a profit, although it means nothing much

Total results for this (restarted) journal:



Thanks for following and have a good weekend

Monday (IFO day)

Today IFO numbers were released and missed the forecast. I’m using a separate file for IFO days, mainly looking at the 10:00-10:30 bar. For the Monday, there are only 14x red bars and 23 green bars, and I don’t see good results.

So no trade today.

Tuesday

Today we opened in prior day HL range and during IB we stayed inside of this range.

The IB is long, but just 1 point. No direction, so I won’t take a trade today.

Wednesday

Today we opened on the high of yesterday and during IB price moved above prior day HL range, and moved back into the PrD HL range.

The IB is short.

DAX Short trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15304
Exit 10:00 @ 15334 (SL)
SL 30 pts
Result -30 pts

Historical results with this setup:
432 pts (42 trades/win% 76%)

Let's see

edit 10:01: SL 1 point too tight (otherwise 4pts profit). I will think of a rule, that when the high of the day is so near the system's SL, that I will extend the SL a few points above the high

Thursday

Today we opened on the high end of yesterday’s HL range and during IB price moved down below this range.

The IB is short.

DAX Long trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15274
Exit 10:00 @ 15299
SL 26 pts
Result 25 pts

Historical results with this setup:
178 pts (18 trades/win% 72%)

Let's see

Friday

Today it’s the last day of the month. The IB is long. Combined with ‘no gap’ and ‘IB inside prior day HL range’, the file only gives 7 results. All pointing out a long trade, but very thin to take a trade on.

So, no trade today.

Hi @Deetee, I removed the .zip file as you requested.

Hard rules

Back in Amsterdam in a more relaxed time zone and I am going to continue this journal.

I have been working on defining hard rules for this system. I have now many setups, depending on which day of the week it is, IB direction and on gaps. And on other variables. There is not a setup for all occasions, also some rules are conflicting, which would lead to not taking a trade.

There are some points that I’m not sure how to handle. For instance, if there is a gap of just a few points, or if the IB OC is just a few points and doesn’t give a clear direction. I didn’t exclude these from my files/historical results, so I guess I should also just consider these as a gap or IB direction even if it’s just a few points. I’m considering redoing a part of the work, excluding these kinds of situations.

I checked manually these setups (slippage not taken into consideration), which are giving good results for Jan-Apr 2021 (55 trades):


And for May:


Sounds hopeful to me

Wednesday

The IB is long. Combined with ‘no gap’ and ‘IB inside prior day HL range’, all pointing out a long trade.

DAX Long trade
Entry 10:00 @ 15169
Exit 11:00 @ 15126
SL 43 pts
Result -43 pts

Historical results with this setup:
259 pts (27 trades/win% 74%)

Let's see