Wednesday February 9th


from Ray Dalio Principles YT video


That's where I am right now.
I think the core message has come through to me, but now that I know it (at least I think that, but honestly do I know anything at all?) and that I can realistically estimate where I'm standing, it sucks!

I invent a lie-o-meter and make a law that everybody must carry one in a clearly visible place.
But the problem would be, I'd likely catch the wrong dose between looking on somebody elses and on my own.
Probably the entire trading industry would blow up, but chances are that before that happens, somebody would sell some sort of "truth-kit" and within a week everyone's lie-o-meter would stand on the green side of 100% innocent truth.

If every questions gets answered with two more questions, there are a whole lot of unanswered questions.

Thursday February 10th

Thoughts on the Grains


Corn



Can't see much at the moment. There would have been the possibility to maybe trade a huge ascending triangle, but that was too unclear for me and it would have seemed to me as if I were forcing a trade.
Also I start to realize that I tend to see a lot of wedges, so I have to be careful with that.



Wheat



The Head & Shoulders is still valid. Also if it should drop from now on, I think I could consider it as a Continuation H&S for a short trade.
I think in Wheat there is a good chance for a trade to come in the near future.



Soybeans



Massive spike which made a reversal-bar on high volume today. Judging from the steep spike, if there should build a Flag taking the next 2-3 weeks, that could turn into a good long.

Friday February 11th

A lot of rumination about how to go on.

I feel like in order to reach the greater goal, it could be necessary to take steps that seem to almost lead me farther away from it in the short term. But is that right or is that a self-betrayal and the first step towards giving up?

And what exactly is the greater goal by now? The real reasons why I got into the market aren't valid anymore and the idea I had about what the market is and where my place in it is turned out to be, to say it kindly, not correct.

There seems to be some knot in my mind. What is realistic and achievable with consistent work towards it, and what is a lunatics illusion produced by an immature, overly proud and greed driven mind?
What is necessary adaptation and what is the first step towards givng up and losing the vision?

I remember having heard the quote "If you want something, you have to let it go" somewhere. Philosphy at its finest, but still to high for me.

MrMojoRisin 

Friday February 11th A lot of rumination about how to go on. I feel like in order to reach the greater goal, it could be necessary to take steps that seem to almost lead me farther away from it in the short term. But is that right or is that a self-betrayal and the first step towards giving up? And what exactly is the greater goal by now? The real reasons why I got into the market aren't valid anymore and the idea I had about what the market is and where my place in it is turned out to be, to say it kindly, not correct. There seems to be some knot in my mind. What is realistic and achievable with consistent work towards it, and what is a lunatics illusion produced by an immature, overly proud and greed driven mind? What is necessary adaptation and what is the first step towards givng up and losing the vision? I remember having heard the quote "If you want something, you have to let it go" somewhere. Philosphy at its finest, but still to high for me.

I have done this for a long time. Every single thing I once thought to be true about trading, especially how easy it would be, has turned out to be wrong.

I have no advice for you, I just want you to know that this is a situation that others also have gone through.

As to what to do, I can offer you nothing at all. These are purely individual matters, and I would not even make a suggestion. Some things are entirely up to the person involved, and that person's resolution and outcome is the right one for them.

For whatever it is worth, I think that everyone finds themselves in this position at some point, whether in trading or anything else.

Good luck. It might not be easy, but it will be fine, whatever it is.

Bob.

bobwest 

I have done this for a long time. Every single thing I once thought to be true about trading, especially how easy it would be, has turned out to be wrong. I have no advice for you, I just want you to know that this is a situation that others also have gone through. As to what to do, I can offer you nothing at all. These are purely individual matters, and I would not even make a suggestion. Some things are entirely up to the person involved, and that person's resolution and outcome is the right one for them. For whatever it is worth, I think that everyone finds themselves in this position at some point, whether in trading or anything else. Good luck. It might not be easy, but it will be fine, whatever it is. Bob.

You are already offering enough by making this forum possible!
Without this place to think loud and giving me a sense of accountability, I know I wouldn't even have come that far.

MrMojoRisin 

You are already offering enough by making this forum possible! Without this place to think loud and giving me a sense of accountability, I know I wouldn't even have come that far.

Well, it's not my forum, it's @Big Mike's. He made it possible.

But I agree that it's an unusual place.

Bob.

Monday February 14th

As life sometimes goes...
On the weekend I went down to the coffeeshop, grabbed a coffee and a cigar. As I was looking for a place to sit down, I realized that nothing was free. Two men noticed my dilemma and beckoned me over and invited me to take a seat at their table.
They were already a bit older, puffed on their cigars and asked me my name. "I'm MrMojoRisin!"
"Nive to meet you Mojo. I am Mr. Paper and that's Mr. Sim", they told me.
"What do you do for a living, Mojo?"
"What I'm trying to do might be the better wording. I'm trying to trade in the markets."
"That sounds interesting. Me and Mr. Sim, we also know a bit about the markets", Mr. Paper said.

I was sipping on my coffee and wasn't quite sure what to think. Nowadays everybody knows a bit about the market and I'm not going to start one of those useless and pointless market-talks.
However, they started to dig and I didn't want to be impolite and so I went along.

Now Mr. Sim started to talk: "You look as if you were confronted with a problem. What is it?"
Oh, no. What does this Mr. Sim know about market problems?
But they offered me the seat and trying to be a bit more open-minded lately, I answered: "Now that I know which markets and what method I want to trade, I can't do it. I'd need more time to get into it and a reasonable amount of capital to be able to trade at a reasonable risk."
"I know a magical indicator that might help you", Mr. Sim said with a big, fat grin on his face, "Just joking, what markets do you want to trade?"
I answered: "Agricultural and similar Futures. I can trade the Mini-Contracts, but they give me so few signals, that the only logical step would be adding further markets. Problem is, that they are too expensive and so I'm basically stuck."

"Look here he is!", Mr. Sim said to Mr. Paper and giving him a slight slap on his shoulder.
Now Mr. Paper started to talk again: "Seems today is your lucky day! We are actually both institutional money-managers, trading for our clients, but also diversifying some of our capital to other money-managers and funds. Some weeks ago, we talked about how we'd like to branch out a bit more into the commodities-sector, but having no one within our circle of acquaintances in the field, that seems to be suited. Do you know that the market is no playground and that you have huge responsibility, especially with other people's money involved?"
I thought he was kidding me, but he looked me in the eye as grave as it gets.
"Yes, Sir. I mean I give my best, honestly, but sometimes mistakes do happen", I answered not really knowing what to think of the situation.
Mr. Sim rose to speak again: "You know, this business is based on trust first and foremost. Trust has to be built and is easily lost. Your reputation is your most valuable asset in this industry. People talk and believe it or not, they know what you're up to. We have seen everything and we know the haughty attitude of most newcomers. You think you know it all, and after the 3rd loss, you are lying on the floor, crying like a baby and start betting the house.
However, we also understand that you have to find your way and drawdowns and minor flaws in your method are fine, but what is not okay is letting losses run, taking irresponsible amounts of risk and deviate from your plan on a constant basis. Believe me, you don't want to knock on an elderly couple's door, tell them that your fund blew up and that you have lost their entire life-savings, because your inflated ego wasn't able to take a loss and you lost control over yourself!
Do you understand that?"
"Yes, I understand that", I answered.

"Good. You know, we might be in a position to help you with your problem, What do you think about that?"
"I don't even know what I should say. But just to make it clear: All I can do is stick to my plan and see what happens. I can't backtest my method and on top I'm going to work a 40h job again soon which will lead inevitably to some mistakes", I said.
"We understand that! That's an ungrateful spot you're in, but it is what it is. We were once in the same place. We are going to talk around a bit and raise some money for you. It won't be millions, but enough so that you can trade your method in a reasonable manner.
You have to be transparent with every single trade! We know which plunders are yours and which mistakes happened because of the unfavorable situation. And if we ask you something, you answer!
So you work out which markets you want to add, how you'll deal with the larger size and your risk-management, and you'll hear from us when the money is ready. And whenever possible, you'll trade your own money as well!"

By now I had my cigar finished and my coffee was empty. We exchanged contact information and I tried to manage to get as quickly-discreet as possible away, before I talk some imprudent stuff and they change their mind.
As I was already walking away, suddenly I heard Mr. Paper's voice, shouting: "Hey Mr. Mojo!"
I turned around.
"Don't forget, the wheel in the sky keeps on turning!"

Tuesday February 15th

Started to research the Livestock market.
Stopped doing my Taylor-books for the Grains, since it was more of an interesting thing to do, but I think currently the time updating them every day is spent better doing other things.


Live Cattle


Feeder Cattle


One thing I didn't know is, that those two aren't two different types of cattle, but the same cattle, only in different stages of their life.
The young cattle after some amount of time gets fed up to a certain weight in a specific process, hence the term Feeder Cattle, and once that is finished it becomes a Live Cattle.

Also went back to Sierra-chart for my software and will probably build my base for the digital charts there.

Wednesday February 16th

Drew Bar-charts for Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal, and continued on building a solid charting-base on SC.

Found 2 hindsight pattern:

Soybean Oil

This is a pattern I should definitely trade if I see it. The bottom could probably also be seen as a H&S.


Lean Hogs

This looks very nice in hindsight, but could have been a type of nerve-wrecker.
I would have probably done an entry with a loss as it still was more of a symmetrical Triangle, and then as it formed out like a perfect ascending Triangle, it did a gap-up on my entry day and barely sold down to the previous day's high, so I might have got no entry there and would have watched it spiking without me.
Such a scenario could be prevented by not waiting for confirmation, but in the long run I think such a missed trade and the slightly worse r/r gets probably offset by some losses I prevent.

Thursday February 17th

Drew charts for Kentucky-Wheat and Cotton.
Then started to look into the tick-values of the various markets and how to best handle my risk-management to make it as even across the markets as possible.
CME traded contracts I'll probably handle all equal, but those traded on the ICE differ a bit. Canola for example is on the cheaper side and even traded in canadian-dollar.
Coffee is so expensive, that I dismissed that one.