Tuesday October 26th

8 Consumer-staples charts.
I get a little doubt in the NYSE-B-%.
In the NASDAQ-B-% I would have gotten a pretty nice approval for buying at the beginning of October, and I'm wondering if I should take this indicator at least for the Technology-Sector.
Also the S&P500-B-% would have given me approval already and doesn't even look that different from the NYSE.
Just from my judgement of the general market, I think it a pretty good spot for buying strong stocks in a good sector right now.
Also the Transportation and Industrial average are nicely in sync currently. Logic tells me that I could probably see this as a buying-hint for the industrial sector, especially transportation related stocks.
I let that thoughts sink in a bit...
I don't want to blindly follow recommendations from the Dorsey book, but also want to take it very serious and don't do fomo-driven half-ass stuff anymore.

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Securities Analysis finished the Bonds section and now in Preferred stock part. Overall it seems Preferred stocks combine the disadvatages of Bonds and Common Stock in one security and there are only very specific situations where they actually make sense. Very dense and difficult to grasp stuff, but nevertheless still readable and the core sinks in.

Wednesday October 27th

Added Crudeoil, 10 & 30 year treasury-yields, Gold and EUR/USD to my daily P&F surveillance for getting a better grip on the "economic machine".
I also think of entirely stopping to observe intraday movements.

Looked for some possible buying opportunities. I thick Tech and Cons. Discretionary are the only two sectors currently which appear to be suitable.


V

Question here is, even that it is listed in the Tech-sector if it not goes more in sync with Financials. American Express is for example a Financial.


RS

Relative strength still on a buy signal and also with support



UAA

What I like here is the change in trend with the very solid bottom that took almost an entire year to form. Looks a bit "Fulcrum" like.


RS

This has lost definitely a lot of its relative strength, but technically it's buyable. The first reversal after an about 8 box decline should be enough. Also it gained strength the etire year of 2021 after being weak in 2020.

Also some more on the watch. I'll observe them for a few days closer and keep an eye on the NYSE-B-% if it goes on buy. Still very much in question if it deserves "that much of authority".

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Security Analysis mostly about what danger signs one should watch in a company before buying their bonds or preferred stock in terms of bankruptcy, default and legal possibilities if problems should occur.

Morgan seems to work harder in his late 30s, early 40s. Also Edison made his first appearance. It wasn't usual for Morgan supporting such novel enterprises as Edison had, his focus was more on the already established business-categories, but it definitely paid off leaving old paths in this case.

Thursday October 28th

3 relative-strength and 3 stock-charts.

Finished part 2 of 7 in Securities Analysis.
Part 1 was an introduction, part 2 about securities with fixed income and part 3 now is about securities with speculative characteristics, which is more what's of interest for me.

Morgan is traveling all the time. Seems especially Egypt he liked a lot. There's also a lot of interesting facts about the Gilded Age in general and the author also describes the character traits of the Morgan family members very well, which is interesting, because I think we all get shaped to a high degree by the people we are surrounded with, if we like it or not.
He also bought his first yacht, the Corsair and joined a yacht club. To the same club, Jay Gould with his Atalanta was denied permission. I think Jay wasn't close as "bad" as he often gets portrayed. In my opinion, he is the undeservedly appointed scapegoat of the robber barons. Someone has to be blamed from those who aren't willing to take responsibility for their own matters.

Friday October 29th

8 Materials-sector charts.

Finished part 3 of 7.
Mostly about convertible preferred stock and convertible bonds. Seems there could be arbitrage opportunities at times. It's also possible that preferred stock shares from a subsidiary could be converted into common stock of the mother company. Very advanced and complicated stuff!

Morgan has electrified his house on Madison Avenue. Once actually the desk in his library caught fire and as William Vanderbilt electrified his house, his gallery caught fire because of some crossing cables. Vanderbilt was so upset that he let remove all the electric stuff, but Morgan stuck with it. In his backyard there was the steam powered generator who actually was so loud and produced so much smoke, that his neighbors started to complain. What glorious times! Where would the world be without men like Edison, Morgan, Rockefeller and the rest of them? We would still be living under rocks and running around with clubs!

Sunday October 31st

Did 10 Industrials on the weekend.

Finished part 4 which was about dividends and dilution, advantages and disadvantages if the company pays dividends, or if it does not and re-invests them into their business.

In the Morgan-biography the collapse of "Grant & Ward" was briefly mentioned.
That's actually a very interesting thing about U.S. Grant. His genius and knowledge he applied in war and also knowledge about human characteristics, since he knew some of his southern opponents from West Point and from the Mexican War, and how they will likely plan out their tactics for defeating the Union, he couldn't really apply to business matters.
Ferdinand Ward was a con-man who lured him into opening a brokerage with him. Reason was for using his good name to get wealthy people to invest. In the end it was a huge pyramid-scheme which collapsed and a lot of people, including Grant himself, lost their entire money.
Another instance was, where he unintentionally supported Jay Gould's and Jim Fisk's Gold corner in 1869.

In studying Grant's life, it really seems if everything happens for a reason. There are countless instances which first appear to be devastating or just somehow random, but if you look at the big picture later on, you see exactly for what it was for.
If he would have been a good business-man, he would likely never have had the spirit for performing in the Civil-War how he did, and if the Grant & Ward debacle wouldn't have happened, he would have likely never written his Memoirs.

Monday November 1st

2 Industrials and 10 Financials.

SA about how companies can fudge their balance-sheets and make things look better than they actually are. Again much in connection with a parent company and its subsidiaries.

In late 19th century America, General Electric is built by now and Morgan consolidates a lot of companies. Public concern arises because of all the gigantic monopolies. An interesting thought as stated in the book is, that it seems that only certain industries tend to/are possible to build such enormous monopolies. Businesses that are more dependent on technological progress seem to be more suited for growing very large and domineering and get centered on one or a few companies in its segment, than businesses that are more labor intensive.

What I also didn't know is, that Edison and Henry Ford were good friends. Ford actually worked in one of Edison's companies and Edison encouraged him in pursuing to try to build a combustion engine when he once told him about his idea.

Tuesday November 2nd

6 Healthcare charts.

Started also to construct the first few years of the Industrial Average. S&P stocks are still the priority, but I want to also do the entire Industrial Average and Transportation Average. Later on maybe major commodities as well. Goal is to have a feel for the various prices when I read a book where year-numbers and financial and economic events are mentioned. I do think that over time that could merge together in my mind and give me a better understanding of the economic machine.


Industrial


Interesting is the sharp decline in December 1899 ( C before 1900)
I recall some superstitious rumors when we went from 1999 to 2000. One was that "electricity stops working" in the new millenium. I'm wondering if there were some weird fears in 1899 as well.

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SA about depreciation in balance-sheets. Differences in various industries and what to look out for.
Very interesting things, but I gave up on "working through it" and just "read" it. For putting that into practice and try to figure out real life examples it's just too complicated yet. Some type of foundation is still missing.

Wednesday November 3rd

20 Consumer-Discretionaries. Literally 10 hours of chart-drawing today. But I do think it's a "healthy" thing to do and time spent worthwhile.

Only a few pages in SA. Still about depreciation. What makes sense is, that oftentimes machines in factories do not actually wear out, but just get old because of advancing technology and have to be taken out of service because of that.
If I think about for example lathes or milling machines that were used by hand, those things were undestroyable if you just changed the oil regularly, but got substituted my CNC-machines as technology evolved.
Also the the worth of the factory building itself is dependend upon how the surrounding area changes over time, which is difficult to foresee.

Thursday November 4th

10 Technology charts

NYSE-B-% finally on a buying signal. Tomorrow and on the weekend I'll put a closer eye on which sectors seem most promising currently and look for suitable charts and place orders/take entries if things look okay.

SA about trends, but not so much in the sense of the "rigidly charted" - trend, but more like that type of other "giving indicated direction of where things head" - trend. I think it's not even that bad of an idea to let that second view of a trend kinda blur into the first one.

Also thought about the "illiterate and boorish" Vanderbilt saying "If I had learned education, I would not have had time to learn anything else", which matches H.L. Hunt saying that he thinks education is an obstacle for making money.

Friday November 5th

Finally the first two trades in the market.


Stock-Operation #1


Stock


General gauges


Technology and Consumer-Discretionary stayed the only two possible sectors for a trade. But the sector-%-indices from both are really on the upper limit like I can judge it with my limited experience. I could be wrong as well, but at least chart pattern are 100% on point and also relative-strength totally fine.
One question is, if the NYSE-B-% is the stronger indicator or the sector-%-indices. The sector-%'s move quicker and are more volatile, but maybe the very particular chosen stocks are these who stay at least consolidating, while others weaken and when the entire sector gets steam again, the particular ones develop above-average strength again.

However, if everything starts to scream "sell" I keep it open to myself to sell per hand rather than waiting to get stopped out.

I'm very curious how they develop over time and how the indicators behave in relation to the stock. I expect them to take between about 2-4 months.