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Your stop has a snowball's chance in hell of surviving there, and you're likely better off being long, but as you say, you can't lose, so I'll cross my fingers for you.
Choosing is mandatory, paying dues, and range day blues
Chapter 1. How it Ended
Last nights trade got stopped out at break even. Josh was right about the stop, but I was right about the direction. Had I more faith in the set up, a loose stop would have seen me 14 points profit by days end risking 8 points, which isn't really my trade, so I'm not too disappointed with the result.
This morning I struggled. Initially price formed this really tight range at the open. I took too much loss trying to stay in position, waiting for a big move that never came. Then, this shitty little range started to look like a bear flag, which it kind of was, but the break out was weak and price started to wedge , forming a slightly larger, slightly less shitty range, where I started to gain, but because I an appointment at 9:45 I was only able to partially recover from my loss.
For all that, it was a good day trading. I lost SIM bucks. I learned that I must be just 20% more patient before I start trading. Wait until I have a set-up planned before entering a trade.. I'm not quite there yet, but I defiantly felt like I gained today despite taking losses. I'm one step closer to knowing who I am as a trader- a trader who attempts to be in a good position to take advantage of trend and momentum. I think the edge is this style of trading will come from not the trades I take, but from those I choose not too, so being patient is important. It is a skill that I continue to hone.
**note to self** Stay out of ranges less than 5 points wide, you suck there. Instead, wait for the range to open up, for a leg that is longer than the average, and start trading there in the direction your biased. Speaking of the direction you are biased, it might not be a bad idea to just trade in one direction if the range is tight and above or below VWAP. Lastly, this whole day was weak AF. You saw it on the DM indicator. You can wait to trade Mike.
Trade performance isn't very telling today. It shows I lost money, yesterday that would have bugged me, not because I lost money, but because I didn't understand why I was, or have some way to stop it. I lose trades because I am not yet patient enough to wait long enough to form a trade idea and test it. On those trades where I have an idea, I tend to make some pretty good trades or at least limit my losses.
I think my technicals are there. I don't think there is another chart or indicator that's going to serve my purpose better. I think that once I am able to wait, watch, and develop good trade idea's in real time- even just a fraction better than I do now, I'll have everything I need to move this to the next level. It could happen tomorrow, it might take a week, I don't know. But what I do know is that I can feel it when it happens and I can see it in my trade performance. I now understand (mostly) why I lose trades, and what I can do about it.
So I'll just keep on keepin' on, and one more thing-
Jeffery Epstein didn't kill himself.
Price is stuck at 4400. The range is 4393 to 4409. My bias is bullish. My plan is trade the top and bottom of the range as long as price is range bound as I wait for price to break the range.
Bullish is a good way to be--just look at the last 18 months! As long as you don't get stubborn on down days, leaning bullish is a generally good way to lean, given the liquidity bubble we're in, courtesy of monetary policy via the Fed.
(1) the action recently, (2) NFP on deck tomorrow, (3) opex next Friday ... should all have you setting low expectations for big directional moves, and greater expectations for muted, grind-of-death type of action. I fully expect a shock up or down, but the downside shocks should be bought, at least for the next week. The catalyst to the downside could be a very strong NFP number, but there are just too many structural flow to the upside for selloffs to stick, as has been the case for many months.
I'm taking a few days off to recharge and reevaluate after last week. Also, my son is home from Michigan for the next week so my priority has temporarily shifted to spending time with him. Its been good to step back and see what's working, and what's not. Speaking of- Just found this tonight. When I watched it I immediately thought about how it related to trading. I think conventional wisdom says that in our discretionary trading we must trade like a robot to trade well. The argument this short 5:43 minute video makes is that there is no such thing as pure rational thought, and that we can make better decisions quicker by relying on our intuition.
I found it thought provoking. It might be others do as well.
Just woke up. Looking to see if there is a trading opportunity. I just missed these 2 beautiful trades on MNQ.
And this one on my MES.
I have to sleep. I like sleeping, but part of me wishes that I could have stayed awake long enough to make these trades. Part of me was smart enough to know that there will be more trades tomorrow.
With perfect hindsight, every big down or up bar looks like an obvious sell/buy. At the hard right edge, it's not so easy. My point being, 99 out of 100 people would say exactly the same thing you just did, but only a handful would (1) take the trade, (2) not get chopped up trying to do so, (3) let it pay them, and (4) close it without getting chopped up trying to get back in, etc.
Enjoy the time with your son. You don't get those moments back!
Mabey this is how I trade, at this point I'm having more questions than answers. What I do know is everything that I have tried so far has not produced the consistency I would need to feel good about moving forward.
This is the big four with 5 minute candles, 20, 50 & 200 SMA's over RSI using the 50 level for a momentum gage. I'm now looking at targeting 4 markets at once in order to diversify. The plan is to attempt to only trade with the trend when momentum is strong.
I totally didn't do that today, so I will try again tomorrow.
