trendisyourfriend 

Interestingly investing in 5% annual yield certificate on $200000 would have given $10000 without any stress or effort.

True. Infact, I didn't even have to 'invest'. I am simply holding cash in my Interactive brokers account and getting 4.83% interest.

As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, I am very grateful for Mr Powell and my interest income alone is enough to take care of ALL my living expenses. My house is fully paid as well and I'm turning 50 next year! I am not boasting but just highlighting the fact that I'm not 'scared money'.

Trading is stress free for me because of the above factors. Ofcourse, it's emotional but so far the 'internship' has been enjoyable. Though I would have liked to be in green for the year, I'm NOT too disappointed as I am here for long haul. My aim is to rely less and less on my employment and savings income during my 50s and more on investment income. If I am lucky, perhaps I can live off from passive income in my 60s. Will see.

You said you don't want to hold any more positions overnight.

What about a middle ground? Like holding only positions overnight, when in profit and also moving stop to breakeven so that there won't be any suprises overnight.

Harleking 

You said you don't want to hold any more positions overnight. What about a middle ground? Like holding only positions overnight, when in profit and also moving stop to breakeven so that there won't be any suprises overnight.

I tried it early this year and it didn't work for me.

The main issue was my compulsion to 'peek' at the market action during ETH which basically means I can't totally relax during out of hours and taking more stress than necessary.

I also don't like breakeven stops. It's just personal choice. I know it suits some but for me it's as bad as a losing trade. My goal is to use ATR based targets and squeeze maximum juice out of my winning trades. By doing that, I can still come out profitable with even 40% win rate.

2024 Business plan.

What will I do differently, this year?

My new 10 commandments.

1. RTH only trading.
2. No overnight hold.
3. Trade entry within the 1st 30 minutes.
4. Trade exits are either 5 day ATR targets or EOD (end of the day).
5. Average trade duration of at-least 4 hours.
6. Trade SPY instead of MES.
7. Limit max loss to $500.
8. Aim for $1000+ on average and push for more.
9. Reduce counter-trend trades.
10. Be greedy with winners.

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I will be busy working for the next 3 weeks of this month and won't post but will continue to trade. Then will aim for regular journal posts.

Back to full-time trading and I will have plenty of free time over the next 2 months.

Currently ES is in a low ATR low VIX state in a bullish environment. This is a tricky trading condition and generally fading extremes work, with a bullish bias. I tend to do well with the opposite i.e breakouts to the downside.

However, one of my goal for 2024 is to 'adapt' to market's mood rather than forcing it to behave well for me.

Jittery 2024 start so far.

Small ranges are notoriously difficult to trade with my methodology.

I lost some on Monday and made that back on Tuesday. Only concern is my tendency to carry over my trade overnight to compensate for poor RTH trading range. Will be vigilant.

The whole RTH day we had 15 points range and as soon the market is closed, we ripped lower. Sellers were able to cut the price like a hot knife through butter during ETH and pushed it down 30 pts but only until the important support line. i.e above monday Low.

So, What's the game plan today?

1. Fed days tend to be range bound early on but ETH volatility is very unusual. Hence, I'm not sure what to make out of it.
2. End of month tends to be bearish and hence I am leaning towards shorts but only after a reasonable bounce to try and close the big gap down.

As long as the price stays below 4938, I'm bearish today.

HumbleTrader 

Fed days tend to be range bound early on but ETH volatility is very unusual. Hence, I'm not sure what to make out of it.

I looked further into FOMC announcement days stat.

In a sample of 160 days, we opened gap UP 110 times. Hence it's generally a safe strategy to hold long overnight but not lastnight.

Gap down is less likely and a big gap down i.e >40% ATR is quite rare. It happened on only 7 occasions, excluding today, out of the 160 days. Does this mean the big guys know something which we don't?

So far I am unable to execute my bearish bias, despite market drifting downwards. May stand aside today as volatility is likely to be high later today.

Congrats on your journal!

I invite you to participate in this months Journal Challenge, you just need to post your journal link in the event thread:

NexusFi Journal Challenge - February 2024 Hi guys, Continuing our long tradition of encouraging members to have Trade Journals, we are announcing our newest Journal Challenge, sponsored by Ninjacators! Prizes -- the top five trading journals will receive prizes: 1st place prize: Ninjacators …

Mike

Started trading DAX today and enjoyed beginner's luck

Since I spend atleast half of my time in Asia, I have been looking at some asian and european markets for a while.

I realised that my signals work across the indices and hence the only thing I need to worry about is risk management.

Currently dabbling with micro DAX and will soon graduate to Mini DAX. Though the volume is less than 1/10th compared to S&P500, the signals seem to work.

I tried the short side twice. First one @ 17095 and then @ 75. Nicely rewared 50+ points on both the occasions.

However, my MES short from 4999 is taking some heat right now. My game plan thesis is gap closure. Let's see.

Another green day yesterday with DAX micros.

I seem to have very little / no emotional attachment with DAX compared to S&P and had no hesitation in switching bias. Hence I was able to read the signals more objectively.

Very encouraged by this and likely to trade with more size soon.