After shorting open @ 3934, I saw a very quick MAE of 20+ points. However, I had a clear strategy to scale in to my loser above ONH and it worked like charm.

I scaled in @ 3957, almost the high tick, and got out at vwap 3940.

Still my original short in place. Going to scale in if we make new LOD below 30 or any bounce to test HOD above 50.

Scaled in again at 3934 (after we made a new LOD).

If we make a new HOD, then my thesis is wrong and I will scale out. Otherwise, holding for 3900 test.

It's tempting to reach my full size if price bounce upto 45 but most likely I will add to weakness below 20 rather than fading the strength.

Relative volume is high. I think it's going to be a fun day again.

Scaled in my 3rd/full size at 46 and scaled out @ 34. (Just 3 minutes in trade for 12 pts. Probably a record for me. It felt like Rodeo for a while. Is that just me or others felt it too?

Now 2 position short - Average price 3934. Slightly under water but 30 pts in bank. Even if we make new HOD, that's breakeven day. It's reassuring to know.

I generally don't give live updates of my trades partly because I am not very active anyways. I generally don't like it either as it makes one feel very exposed. Literally. Hence, it can be extremely helpful in understanding my strategy, profit targets, failed trade thesis, max pain areas etc.

Edit - After me made a new HOD @ 3960, I scaled out 'gracefully' during the pullback @ 3948.

I'm short only 1 position now which I will hold till EOD or target 3918. (Not 3900 as per original trade idea as it falls outside ATR though it's possible due to high Relative volume). No more trade for me today.

Narcissus 

It felt like Rodeo for a while. Is that just me or others felt it too?

Yup, felt it. Any idea what happened, specifically around 10:11 EST? It felt like I had slept-walked into an important new release but I didn't/don't see anything on the calendar.

Narcissus 

Scaled in again at 3934 (after we made a new LOD). If we make a new HOD, then my thesis is wrong and I will scale out. Otherwise, holding for 3900 test. It's tempting to reach my full size if price bounce upto 45 but most likely I will add to weakness below 20 rather than fading the strength. Relative volume is high. I think it's going to be a fun day again.

What is your "full size"? I did a quick scan of your posts and could not find anything.

blackgrey45 

What is your "full size"? I did a quick scan of your posts and could not find anything.

I trade MES and my full size is 3.

I initiate my 1st 'feeler' position after assessing past stats using investiquant and current price action/trend using EMA crossovers. It's ofen at RTH open but can be pre-open.

My 2nd position is usually added to my winner but occasionally to a loser 'only if it's my trade thesis and predetermined'. Today is an example. I was short from open but I wanted to scale in to my loser (as the probability of a 'down gap' fill is higher, especially after a trend down day yesterday).

My final and 3rd position is added only after I'm convinced that the direction of today's price action is clear and it's likely to continue till the end of the day. I admit that this is the hardest part (psychologically) and I have been trying to do it more often but without much sucess.

With regards to exits, my 1st position usually stays till EOD. If it's a loser, then I must close it and take my loss. If I have a winner, then I may leave it or another day. My 2nd and 3rd positions are usually scaled in and out, intraday, with a much shorter holding period i.e often minutes to a couple of hours.

My aim is to bag at-least >1 ATR and keep my loss to <1 ATR. For eg. ATR was 35 today. I was able to collect 45 points yesterday. I call it a regular pay day

Prep.

Stats favor shorts today.

Limit short below ONH @ 3959.

Risk is price moving upto the magnet 4000. However, I'm betting that bears have momentum and may want to test 3900. Will see.

Does opening price location matter?

Today we opened BELOW yesterday's high, even though we tested Y-H during overnight session.

Had we opened above 3962, it's quite bullish with PF 1.6 based on 150+ days. However, since we opened below Y-H, it's bearish with PF 0.75.

hmm. Interesting.

Short 3955 first.

Then scaled in @ 72 and scaled out @ 60.

Scaled in again at 67 just now. Target is ideally 45 to scale out.

Currently ATR is 40. May be that's all for today.

If we make new HOD, my thesis is wrong and I will take my loss. If I'm lucky, we will see new LOD and final exit will be around 3910.

Using stats to improve my execution.

It's clear from the past data that when we open at this location i.e between Y-Close and Y-High, there is a 70% chance that the Y-high will be tested successfully. (120 out of 188 days).

So, Instead of initiating short in 50s @ RTH open (like I did today) I could have waited for this early bullish move to exhaust itself and then short above Y-H @ 70s.

Will continue to think creatively to use stats for a more objective trading.