I was very lucky to have a reversal day. My short positions from the opening hour took extreme heat but closed break-even.

One of my strategy is based on 'End of Day' stats without stops. Definitely not for the weak hearted.

Sep 28 2023 Thursday

Stats are mixed but I have chosen to play the short side. Again.

The momentum is still down, at-least until Y-H was taken. Inabilityy of overnight players to take that level could be a bearish sign.

I am short from 4309.50 and will add if ONL is taken out.

Target 4285 area.

It's chop fest out there.

I shorted 4310 and then added 4320s. Full position i.e 5 MES. Quite happy about that.

However, price action was choppy and seems like locals are playing. Hence covered 4. Breakeven now.

Unable to read the market action and hence decided to be cautious. This is not my kind of market and I don't like targets of single digit points.

I did leave 1 contract on and will likely hold till the end of the day.. Purely for educational purpose. If we test 4300 again, then I will consider adding position. Looks unlikely as of now, but you never know.

It's a mixed week for me so far. Though it's frustrating, and I often question the viability of my trading business long term, I have to remind myself of the incremental progress I have been making.

1. Ability to take breakout trading. In my experience, BO has one of the worst Risk Reward ratio if there is no continuation (as I have paid the worse price). However, it applies only when I don't cut the losing trade quick. As my ability to take small losses is increasing, I am becoming more confident of taking BO trades. When it works, it has minimal to no heat and hence the allure.

2. Ability to reach max size of 5 MES. My aversion to risk has kept me in this business for a long time but also hindered my potential to grow my P&L. However, after having 3 green years since Covid, I am confident that I won't ruin my account. After another profitable year, I will earn the right to trade E-minis. (Believe it or not, I was trading the minis for the first 3 years of my trading adventure).

3. Cutting my trading to 2.5 hours/day. I don't fancy screen staring for hours, particularly when I'm in Asia, in the middle of the night. Though I am restricting my profit potential, I am still able to capture 70% ATR between RTH open and EU close. My stats are still based on RTH 'End of Day' though and hence currently tweaking them. I like the fact that most professional day-traders around the world are also active during that time.

4. Ability to accept a failing trade early on. Probably the most important one. This has allowed me to scale down my size and also limited my losses even when I got my bias wrong. e.g Yesterday. Bullish bias but minimal loss despite reaching max size.

Sep 29 Friday.

Stats are bullish today

I will be long from RTH open and will be buying the dips. Target is above R2 4386.

Long 4369.

Scaled in @ 61 as planned as the pullback didn't bother me. Then the expected runup to ONH happened but the subsequent selling was by big volume. I did NOT like that at all. Hence scaled out @ 67.

Still holding my 1/2 position. Though it looks less bullish now, I am going to leave that on till EU close. Not buying dips anymore.

Small loss day but several useful lessons.

I feel silly that I forgot about month end. It has a clear bearish trend in data and enough to neutralize the bullishness we see from big gap up opening.

However, I was NOT married to my position. I did well in spotting the selling by pros and hence took small decent profits. I bought the dip again but covered it after seeing weakness.

I kept my expectation low but prepared to go aggressive if new HOD was made above 4370. That never happened. So early weekend for me.


My long trade is based on this historical data. I would take this trade again. Everytime. Except when it's month end.



This is month end bearish stats.

October 2 Monday review.

Directional bias was mixed.

Decided to join the bears due to the overnight weakness i.e. momentum play.

The first entry was good because of patience and I let the price bounce upto Y-close. Though it rolled over, as I expected, the next hour was very 'whiplashy' and I struggled to read the market. There was even a fake but strong breakout to the upside and I became flat. However, no damage was done to the account and more or loss break-even by that time. i.e. EU close.

Then the best part. Breakout trading to the downside. Though it's a single contract and a meagre 12+ points gain, I thought the clean execution with minimal risk and ideal ATR target was perfect. Turned out to be the LOD too.

Though 'nailing' the top/bottom is a dangerous strategy, from the risk/reward point of view, it's THE most profitable one. The key is to accept the small loss when the premise is wrong and I'm getting better at it.

October 3 Tuesday

Bias is bearish today.

Will short the open and then any bounce upto 4310. Beyond that, I have to re-assess.

Target will be below Y-L. ATR 45 to 50 today. Possibly below recent swing low of 4276.

Short @ 4306. 3 MES

Not my max size as the trade thesis is NOT working yet. If price rolls over, then I will consider adding. Perhaps, below 4300.

My bearish bias is based on this data below. Though the average trade is negative i.e bearish, it's a useful reminder to see all the bullish closes.

Most of the strategies I use have 50% win rate on average. But the profit factor is what matters. So it's very important for me to press my winners and double up on size when my idea is working.