Truly Bipolar market this week. Actually from the 1st of February, it has been a fairly tight range.

Surprised with the big gap down and opening below Y-L.

My signs are mildly Bullish. I was hesitant to catch the falling knife @ RTH open. Let the price settle down around 4100 for 10 mins and then long 50 SPY.

I don't like the 'feel' of this trade and has the trademark of a sure loser. That's often a good sign

Scaled out 1/2 @ 4125 i.e vwap.

Managing a 'working' or winning trade can be harder than 'losing' trade.

I will likely hold the rest till EOD but considering going flat @ 4140. There are many reasons. For instance, there are signs of distribution, particulary at the key level of Y- vpoc 4135 and we are already 40 ES pts RTH.

There may be more juice left in this rally but I'm buying only @ 4115 and not at this current levels above 25.

If we revisit 4100, I expect some fireworks. (less likely scenario).

My trade execution system is both evolving and improving.

So far, I have been (mostly) entering @ RTH open and holding my positions till the End of the Day EOD without any stops. This may sound risky and stupid to lot of traders but since my position size is small, it's actually pretty safe. The lessons from holding the trade through ups and downs are priceless. It also makes you more confident of your system.

Today is a good example. My signal was mildly bullish. Purely mechanical strategy would have been 'buy @ RTH' and 'sell at close'. That would have been -12 pts loss. This is despite seeing 35 pts paper profit.

I optimised in 3 ways.

1. Entry - I waited for 10 minutes to 'ensure' the sellers from ETH were neutralized first and then bought @ 4100. This is to ensure I don't fade a strong down-trend i.e catch a falling knife.

2. Scale - I scaled in after I became more confident that buyers were showing up at 4100 and scaled out at 4125 vwap. Ideal location.

3. Final exit @ 4135. Though I left more than 10 pts on the table, it seemed reasonable at that time and my rationale was explained live in my previous post.

This is a good example of my grade A trade where I beat my signal (& passive trading) by better trade management. Hoping to do more of this. Enough of boasting and it's time to scale up my position size

My directional bias is bearish today.

Since we already dropped quite a bit ETH, I'm not sure whether I want to chase the price or let it come upto me in the 4100 area.

I may get more aggressive with my size as volatility is expected to rise below 4100. I expected this 'fireworks' RTH but unfortunately it's happening outside the timeframe I'm allowed to trade.

After I mastered discipline and patience, I will trade ETH and possibly hold overnight too. That's the final frontier for me

Short from RTH open.

I contemplated waiting for a better price, perhaps @ Y-L but became 'brave'. So far it's paying off but I'm not aggressively scaling in yet.

We just breached ONL which gives me more confidence now.

Tick is behaving very orderly and below 0 which is quite bearish. It may be one of those days where I keep waiting for a bounce to short and that never happens. Hence I'm keeping an eye on NYSE tick and if touches +500, I may scale in, regardless of the price.

Edit - My bearish thesis is fizzling out as ES is making a come back from ONL to HOD +30 pts. Still a gap above to fill and bulls are not there yet.

I scaled in @ wrong location. It usually happens when my bias is stronger than necessary and I chase the price. Now it's all about exiting 'gracefully' and limiting loss.

Interesting day. Somewhat frustrating day too.

I expected a big range and more volatile day for 2 reasons. We broke important support level 4100 with big changes in options gamma dynamics. We also broke the 20 DMA and it was options expiration day.

The first 30 minutes seemed that way. However, things changed subsequently with more chop and indecision. After several months, I felt FOMO @ the lows and shorted breakouts. That was the clue to go easy and I changed my strategy to a more defensive one and walked away with a small loss.

It could have been a small gain day, had I closed my position sooner. Reason for that was the long weekend in US which tends to be bullish for ES later in the day. Will remember this next time.

Weekly result.

This is why trading is tough and needs a lot of emotional resilience.

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My signals are pretty bearish today.

SPY 100 short from RTH open. I may go full size fairly early on. If I get the direction right I will try to be more aggressive in scaling.


Edit - As planned, Short from Open @ 4045 and then scaled in @ 4055.

Trade thesis is working with new LOD. ONL provided feeble support and so far the tick and delta are supportive of shorts.

Not planning to take partial profits yet and considering letting it run for atleast 40 pts RTH ATR. That means, 4015 initial target. The risk is gap closure with price coming up to 4075. Less likely but anything is possible. Will see.

My signals generally give a non-committal suggestion regarding directional bias. Today is an exception. Unusually, all my 6 parameters are bearish.

That doesn't mean I go all in. I still have to respect risk and position size and trade management is the key. Though i wanted to change my strategy to scale in and all out, I decided to continue my usual style of scae in & scale out for now.

Entry RTH open 4045.
I scaled in @ 4055.
Then scaled out @ 4030 for 25 points.
My next scale out location is 4015. Then final exit End of the Day. EOD.

I still have a decent size of 100 SPY and plan to add during the next bounce to vwap (if that happens).

Good day but could have been a better one with more size.

Very shallow bounces and hence very little opportunity to scale in @ safer locations. Very typical of trend days. No matter where I scale out, trend days make me look silly even on a profitable day

I did NOT hold till End of the Day as I felt 2% movement was the maximum.