That went up like a rocket.

Long 50 at the open. Scaled out 25. Want to load up on pullback.

Scaled in twice during the (much deeper) pullback. Small profit and then stopped out.

Reversal day or Freak out weak bulls. Not sure yet. If ONL is also tested, I .ay switch side to shorts. Currently much weaker below vwap.

Flat. Small loss. Gave up the early profit. I'm glad I scaled out and locked some profit. Could have been lot worse.

Y-L and ONL barely intact. If they are tested, I will likely NOT trade breakout short. Will look for a rebound to vwap, though looks less likely.

Done for the day.

Useful lessons today

1. Scale out after >25% ATR move or if there is evidence of Distribution in Renko (both present today and I'm glad I did).

2. Never trust a textbook pullback.

3. If a rocket UP move returns back to base, it's going deep underground next.

4. Most important. Recency bias - After a choppy Range day, always be vigilant for a trend or reversal day.

P.S. These are the days where lack of cognitive flexibility or stubborn-ness will drain your money & ambition to become a trader.

Be safe.

P.S. This is exactly the day I was expecting yesterday and kept pounding short on ES & SPY. You don't make money for being too early

Narcissus 

Done for the day. Useful lessons today 1. Scale out after >25% ATR move or if there is evidence of Distribution in Renko (both present today and I'm glad I did). 2. Never trust a textbook pullback. 3. If a rocket UP move returns back to base, it's going deep underground next. 4. Most important. Recency bias - After a choppy Range day, always be vigilant for a trend or reversal day. P.S. These are the days where lack of cognitive flexibility or stubborn-ness will drain your money & ambition to become a trader. Be safe. P.S. This is exactly the day I was expecting yesterday and kept pounding short on ES & SPY. You don't make money for being too early

Just a thought buddy - don't #2 and #3 contradict #4?

Thanks @Anagami

Narcissus 

2. Never trust a textbook pullback. 3. If a rocket UP move returns back to base, it's going deep underground next.

#3 describes the first 30 mins of price action. Open, Drive higher type price action, commonly seen in Trend UP days (FT71's language).

Then comes #2, the classic textbook pullback. Though I took it, I was suspicious because of the HEAVY Distribution between 3940 & 50. When we came back all the way to the Open print, It smelt of Bull trap. So I didn't hang around with my long.

Narcissus 

4. Recency bias - After a choppy Range day, always be vigilant for a trend or reversal day.

This one refers to yesterday's compressed range and chop. I tried shorting Breakouts 3 times and failed. That memory or recency bias persisted, sub-consciously, and prevented me from taking the breakout of today's ONL which would have been a 40+ pts winner.

Narcissus 

Thanks @Anagami #3 describes the first 30 mins of price action. Open, Drive higher type price action, commonly seen in Trend UP days (FT71's language). Then comes #2, the classic textbook pullback. Though I took it, I was suspicious because of the HEAVY Distribution between 3940 & 50. When we came back all the way to the Open print, It smelt of Bull trap. So I didn't hang around with my long. This one refers to yesterday's compressed range and chop. I tried shorting Breakouts 3 times and failed. That memory or recency bias persisted, sub-consciously, and prevented me from taking the breakout of today's ONL which would have been a 40+ pts winner.

Yes, I day trade MES on 3 min charts, so I know exactly what you meant with each of your points.

My point is - we take the lessons from today... and then try to apply them tomorrow. Well, that sounds great, but that's recency bias.

There is a wider question here, and it is a deep one - how do we consistently trade the market that behaves differently every day? (Especially without falling into all kinds of biases and fallacies.)

I don't expect an answer. It's more of something to think about.

Anagami 

[B]There is a wider question here, and it is a deep one - how do we consistently trade the market that behaves differently every day?

Great question. I don't know the answer.

However, I do know that I'm more prone to certain biases than others, I think. It may be related to our individual personality traits & background.

Recency bias is a big one for me. I'm becoming more mindful of that now and slowly coming up with ways to deal with it. For instance, I know that I am more likely to expect a trend day tomorrow and hence more likely to trade breakouts hoping for big winners. Scaling out systematically is 1 way of dealing with it and I'm working on it.

The other one is confirmation bias. I try to counteract that by assuming I'm holding the opposite side of my trade. Then I start to look for evidence. Sort of like devil's advocate.

Finally, I had the tendency to trade the same direction (long/short) the following day if I made some big money. Not sure of the name for the bias. My stats homework has been instrumental in fixing this bias. My direction ALWAYS depends on pre-open stats and not my previous day execution.

Work in progress

Narcissus 

Great question. I don't know the answer. However, I do know that I'm more prone to certain biases than others, I think. It may be related to our individual personality traits & background. Recency bias is a big one for me. I'm becoming more mindful of that now and slowly coming up with ways to deal with it. For instance, I know that I am more likely to expect a trend day tomorrow and hence more likely to trade breakouts hoping for big winners. Scaling out systematically is 1 way of dealing with it and I'm working on it. The other one is confirmation bias. I try to counteract that by assuming I'm holding the opposite side of my trade. Then I start to look for evidence. Sort of like devil's advocate. Finally, I had the tendency to trade the same direction (long/short) the following day if I made some big money. Not sure of the name for the bias. My stats homework has been instrumental in fixing this bias. My direction ALWAYS depends on pre-open stats and not my previous day execution. Work in progress

Conscious perspective and an externalized point of view is the most we can do. (That, and sharing with others, and being open to their feedback, as by definition, we are unable to see our own blind spots.)