I don't trade oil or natural gas, however, I wanted to add this to the conversation. When markets have real fear, like when there was the recent bank issues, liquidity providers get scared and will not provide good liquidity. If you look at the total liquidity consistently on the dom, you will notice extremely below average total liquidity on those days. To do that, you turn on the total liquidity of the top and bottom 10 levels, so that you can see the total liquidity day to day. Usually, when I look at the ES futures, the total liquidity is around 1200 to 1700, sometimes 2000 on each side. Recently on those days, the total liquidity of the ES was at 400 on each side. The liquidity providers that provide limit order liquidity to take the other side of trades were not providing because they thought there was too much risk. They have to trade some as they are paid to provide liquidity. But, the riskier it gets, the less they provide. Because of the way the market works, this allows price to move much more on less volume. Mix that with a little panic, and you have the recipe for a crash. The flash crash of May 10, 2010 was a product of extremely low market liquidity mixed a just a little market panic. I bet if you were looking at total liquidity consistently in oil futures on that day it crashed, you would have noticed that the liquidity was very, very low. If the liquidity providers think its too risk to be out there trading, why wouldn't I think its also too risky. If I want consistency in my trading, I should seek to trade in consistent liquidity environments, and stay out of low liquidity environments. I'm not talking about rocket science here. Most folks out there just don't know enough about the market to be trading it.

brmicha2000 

I don't trade oil or natural gas, however, I wanted to add this to the conversation. When markets have real fear, like when there was the recent bank issues, liquidity providers get scared and will not provide good liquidity. If you look at the total liquidity consistently on the dom, you will notice extremely below average total liquidity on those days. To do that, you turn on the total liquidity of the top and bottom 10 levels, so that you can see the total liquidity day to day. Usually, when I look at the ES futures, the total liquidity is around 1200 to 1700, sometimes 2000 on each side. Recently on those days, the total liquidity of the ES was at 400 on each side. The liquidity providers that provide limit order liquidity to take the other side of trades were not providing because they thought there was too much risk. They have to trade some as they are paid to provide liquidity. But, the riskier it gets, the less they provide. Because of the way the market works, this allows price to move much more on less volume. Mix that with a little panic, and you have the recipe for a crash. The flash crash of May 10, 2010 was a product of extremely low market liquidity mixed a just a little market panic. I bet if you were looking at total liquidity consistently in oil futures on that day it crashed, you would have noticed that the liquidity was very, very low. If the liquidity providers think its too risk to be out there trading, why wouldn't I think its also too risky. If I want consistency in my trading, I should seek to trade in consistent liquidity environments, and stay out of low liquidity environments. I'm not talking about rocket science here. Most folks out there just don't know enough about the market to be trading it.

The CME Group is one of the largest and most important exchanges for trading crude oil futures contracts. On April 20, 2020, the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contract, which is traded on the CME Group's NYMEX exchange, experienced a historic drop in price and traded at negative prices for the first time in history.

According to data from the CME Group, on April 20, 2020, the total volume of crude oil futures contracts traded on the NYMEX exchange was 8,848,373 contracts.
The daily average crude oil trading volume on the CME Group's NYMEX exchange can vary depending on market conditions, contract specifications, and other factors. However, as of my knowledge cutoff date of September 2021, the CME Group reported that the average daily volume for all of their crude oil futures and options contracts, including WTI and Brent crude oil futures, was approximately 2.1 million contracts per day for the year 2020.
The volume (liquidity) on that day was 4 times greater than normal daily average for the year 2020.

Although May 10,2010 was also a very volatile day but it was not a flash crash day.Flash crash occurred on May 6, 2010.On May 6, 2010, the E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract (ES) experienced a sudden and sharp drop in price, which came to be known as the "flash crash." However, May 10, 2010, was also a volatile day for the markets, with the ES futures contract experiencing significant price movements.On flash crash day 4 million plus contracts traded on CME While daily
average volume for ES for the year 2010 was 2.2 Millions.

No doubt low volume causes great fluctuations in the market but every volatile day is not necessarily a low liquidity day.Sure volatile days are risky if you don't have good risk-management safeguards in place but at the same time they present the huge opportunity to harvest big rewards as compared to risk you take as market makes huge swings.If you read the market context and use the biggest swing of the context to decide which risk reward strategy best suits to that particular time we can make in that particular day what we otherwise make in weeks or months.

Liquidity is not the issue of retail traders who hardly play individually with couple of standard contracts especially in ES market.In ES market there is hardly any slippage beyond couple of ticks even in low liquidity environment.

If we back test our tools and strategies and if they have positive expectancy we need not fear,
Just keep on going with our strategies and keep adapting ourself to the most current market behaviour we will get our targets.Market will never behave as we wish it to be, always we have to adopt ourself to market conditions.

Market behaviours are not innumerable but only three in my opinion.
1-Steep declined or inclined movements (on nose to toes or toes to nose days, it may be aggressive or a slow grind).
2-Upward swing movement in long trend and don-word swing movement in down trend.
3- Range bound price action (mostly after or before a big move days)

So if you have about 3 strategies for a particular market they will cover all market conditions.
This repetition happens over and over and over.
Just we need to use the most appropriate for that particular market for that particular time.

Off-course this is not easy it takes a lot of effort, research and practice to develop that skill and to make those strategies.

So whatever works for you just make it a second habit with practice but in my opinion we should never trade without a proper risk-management strategy if we do so, sooner or latter we will be hitting our head in a brick wall.

Thoughts in this post are just my knowledge and experience of my last 15 years in trading and are not presented here to win any arguments.Every one is unique and special and possesses unique ideas.So please keep sharing and keep adding value to this forum.

Symple 

I guess not every body understands what you mean with "Selling Put and Call". To give a little inside to this specific topic following some stuff to read for those which are not familiar with those kind of trading: - Strangle: How This Options Strategy Works, With Example: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/strangle.asp - What Is a Straddle Options Strategy and How to Create It: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/straddle.asp - Synthetic Futures Contract: Examples and Strategies: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/syntheticfuturescontract.asp Above are the so called long version of those strategies. Now the short version when it comes to selling the options: - Short strangle : https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/options/options-strategy-guide/short-strangle - Short straddle: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/options/options-strategy-guide/short-straddle - Synthetic Short Futures: https://www.theoptionsguide.com/synthetic-short-futures.aspx There are many more option strategies which work with both "Selling or buying call and put", this also with different amounts of options on both side like five calls and two puts and so on, then addding other legs with other derivatives, but this would then get to far in this thread. Any way: Have a nice Easter. Symple

What I do is selling strangles..............That's all. You got the capital required, you can do it, too. Worst case, do very wide iron condors to reduce the margin requirement. It is almost the same. A ten (10) point wide iron condor, or credit spread will require $1000 margin, a 50 point wide will need $5000 margin, and a 100 point wide a $10000 margin. Trade according to your capital and only strangles. Leave alone the straddles and the "synthetics".....Have happy trading.

Many stocks and futures have very lucrative option premiums, just go ahead and them and if you need to defend your position once in a while then defend it and go on to the next trade. There is no 100% trading method. Once in a while you give something back as long as is less than what you keep.
===========================================================================================

What I do is selling strangles..............That's all. You got the capital required, you can do it, too. Worst case, do very wide iron condors to reduce the margin requirement. It is almost the same. A ten (10) point wide iron condor, or credit spread will require $1000 margin, a 50 point wide will need $5000 margin, and a 100 point wide a $10000 margin. Trade according to your capital and only strangles. Leave alone the straddles and the "synthetics".....Have happy trading.

Many stocks and futures have very lucrative option premiums, just go ahead and get them and if you need to defend your position once in a while then defend it and go on to the next trade. There is no 100% trading method. Once in a while you give something back as long as is less than what you keep.
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msadiq109 

Good luck my friend So far month of April is concerned the close price of NG for April month has never been below open price of April for about last 40 years plus including the El Niño event occurred in 2015-2016.So I hope your trades will be successful because of timing.I just marked the April 2nd Close price ($2.035) to manage my trading bias. I trade natural gas only in April with two accounts on a 2 renko chart with Sharkindicators bloodhound and Blackbird automation tools using my swing indicator. One account trades short with 5 lots on a swing of 132 ticks move upward augmented by supply and demand tools in 24 hours with a 1:20 Risk Reward(4 ticks stop 80 ticks Profit Target with also daily high and low water mark limits).While the 2nd account trades only long at 132 ticks daily swing low with 1:20 risk reward. All positions flat at market close.So far account with short trades is having more success than with long trades but both are running with positive expectancy.if it goes to $1.90 I will be playing only with long bias with 1:50 risk reward strategy.No trades below that level. I am doing it since 2017 and so far every year is going very well.These days daily average volatility is between 100-132 ticks so I strategize on 75-80% of the daily volatility to be on safe side.This works for me on live personal money accounts and also Funded programs as well. Financial markets are extremely manipulated and to call a bottom or top is out of question, you never know what the powerful has in his mind.There is no level playing field for retailers and the smart money. So in my view, playing without risk management is very risky.We have seen Crude oil in recent history, April 20, 2020, trading between $40 to -$37.63 within couple of hours.Even $100k accounts with just two lot open positions were blown out in just two hours.I was trading on that day with the same strategy 1:20 risk reward, 5 ticks stop loss and 100 ticks profit target at suitable swings augmented by supply and demand levels and made $85,000 plus just trading two lots at a time.I stopped trading at $10 price level as I had long bias at that price level.So my strategy was ready to trade long when price was to cross above $10.0. That day winning probability went above 70% for me.Same day my friend sitting right next to me blew his $115,00 account as he opened his 1st long trade at $9.5 saying these words to me "are they gonna sell it for free" he kept adding positions and added to max 5 st lots when price reached $2 level but the manipulator kept manipulating it and market was halted at negative $37.63.00 we were seeing loosing money but were unable to close positions.They made sure to wipe out every single retailer and small guys.All those accounts without good risk-management safeguards were auto liquidated because of margin limits reached.And when the market opened after halt it opened at about $10 plus.It means after halt retailers did not have chance to enter below $10.And as my strategy was at $10 Long it triggered long order at $10.04 but it was filled at $35 level about $25 plus slippage this trade hit my emergency stop level of 50 ticks as my automation strategy stop was at $10.0.It means the smart money did not let any retailor trade below $2 before halt and below $S35.0 after halt as their iceberg orders were coming over and over and those suppercomputers were hanging our computers with huge volumes. This is what the manipulated media was saying on that day "This was due to a combination of oversupply and a collapse in demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a glut of oil on the market and limited storage capacity." After market resumed within one hour the same media was saying this"it resumed at a higher price level of $10.01 per barrel. This means that the price of oil had increased significantly from the negative price of $37.63 per barrel that led to the trading halt. The increase in price was due to several factors, including production cuts by major oil producers and a gradual recovery in demand for oil as lockdowns and travel restrictions were lifted in some countries. My question is this how come all this got managed in just two hours that supply demand and storage issues were resolved .Where were the regulators did any body spoke. Here is how this manipulation works.For commodity markets retailers have max lot size limits, for example 100 standard lots for an individual retailer for crude oil ireespective of the capital in his/here account.While the hedgers who physically hold crude oil stocks have no such limits they can go any limits.So those people can take market to any level without any loss.Here is how they can and they do it. They don't pay any trading fees per trade like us retailers rather pay lump sum amount for the whole year irrespective of their trade numbers.As they have physical commodity means have long positions now they can go and open equal amounts of short positions in future markets now they are hedged.Now smart money can take the market to any direction any limit anytime without any losses. This is true about any market in the world. So need to be watchful without risk management we can loose in one day what we made in years. Happy easter to everyone

Um...what is all this crap. Save your time and energy and worry about your own trades. I'm good on my Natty positions. I didn't even read past the first sentence.

nikotron1124 

What I do is selling strangles..............That's all. You got the capital required, you can do it, too. Worst case, do very wide iron condors to reduce the margin requirement. It is almost the same. A ten (10) point wide iron condor, or credit spread will require $1000 margin, a 50 point wide will need $5000 margin, and a 100 point wide a $10000 margin. Trade according to your capital and only strangles. Leave alone the straddles and the "synthetics".....Have happy trading. Many stocks and futures have very lucrative option premiums, just go ahead and them and if you need to defend your position once in a while then defend it and go on to the next trade. There is no 100% trading method. Once in a while you give something back as long as is less than what you keep. ===========================================================================================

Although this is a futures forum, I wish to highlight the extreme risks of short strangles. Maybe it can be applied to options on futures, but for options on futures, these are counted as 2 legs (instead of one), so there is no capital efficiency in trading them so I don't under why the retail traders want to trade these at all.

Anyway, I starting trading options since 2000. For short strangles, you make money if the market moves very little or the implied volatility (IV) is constant or goes down. If the market moves abruptly or if the IV shoots up suddenly, the position is screwed. The risk is unlimited for a very small profit (that is capped). The analogy I give is like picking pennies in front of an oncoming train. Yes one can make money 8 put of 10 times. But it is the 2 out of the 10 times that get you kill. If the position is under water, adjustment is hard, so it doesn't make any sense to me in terms of risk management.

HiLatencyTRDR HLT 

Um...what is all this crap. Save your time and energy and worry about your own trades. I'm good on my Natty positions. I didn't even read past the first sentence.

My apologies.

msadiq109 

My apologies.

Not a big deal. Natty up 7%. I'm not looking for a discussion on natural gas.
Have a great day. This thread is about indicators I thought but it has evolved into something else which people are reading so that's good.

I will say when someone shows you or tells you their positions the best thing you can do is just be quiet about what they are doing and worry about what you are doing.

I sold 2 at 2.155 holding the rest.

I didn't use an indicator but natural gas is extremely oversold with almost all indicators no matter what you decide to indicate.

Have a great day traders.

nikotron1124 

There is one price action method that has been introduced by Rob Smith (@RITB), I think, anyway he goes by Rob-In-The-Black in Twitter, and his approach is very logical and is working and I have tried myself and is working, BUT, because I do not want to stay all day watching my computer screen I use this approach on longer time frames, like Daily and up. For my options trading that's all I need, BUT it is working and that's all I care. Wishing you profitable trading.......

What is this method? Can you encapsulate the basic approach or setup?

HiLatencyTRDR HLT 

I posted my results of actual trading here in a journal. I ran 1700 to 10k real money in a few weeks. I did this right after failing one of the get funded programs which I tried just to see what all the hoopla was about in this new get funded fake trading environment. The reason I am telling you this is because I am a profitable trader. However I failed the prop trading because I did not follow their rules. However I quickly showed that I can trade real money on my terms very well and I did it all by scalping. Sure I looked at indicators charts s/r but those didn't make me money...it was me and my trading that made money. There is truly no right or wrong way to do it. There is no magic number for ma or ta or Sr or pivots it fits etc. Sometimes they work And sometimes they don't work. Position size is another variable and volatility and news etc. This is what makes it fun. It's fluid it's dynamic. It's like hooking up with a new girl every week and learning her idiosyncrasies in order to win n get what you want! While competing against other alphas except it's for hard earned money! You can see support n resistance on a Dom without a chart very easily! Just watch the price move. But charts give you a great birds eye view. The Dom is the microscope! Anyway. Arguments about ma indicators price action stop loss etc are futile and a waste if time. Find what works for you!!! Seriously. It's a lonely game at times and you must figure it all out yourself for you. That's what's most amazing about trading imo

Perhaps you missed my original reply to you so I will repeat here.

Those results are very impressive! How did you do it? What was your basic strategy?