vix



As i need some stability and we have good vola, i change to ES for a while
NQ has much higher risk as it has a) larger contract value and b) higher volatility

ES big picture

• We have a fresh condition shift on the daily
• The swing low is weak

20121020 pre market

• Yesterday with the powell speech we broke out of the multi day balance area
• The on session was not able to find acceptance in the spike
• The market is very bearish
• At the same time the shorter tf is already short positioned and there can be coverings, especially if we open low in the on range
• i try to operate in that trade off between short trend and coverings
• The breakout is a fresh condition change, Use caution when trading long
• oni is short

weekly 20

20231020 post market


trades 10 20

• two trend-moves with a contra auction to vwap in between in sandwich time
• the contra move before the open is important as it makes the early shorts good trades instead of fomo trades (im my methodology)
• i was a little concerned by cum delta but at the end i followed my usual thinking
• but it was the harsh delta drop of 8000 in 5 minutes that made me try a short for second move outside of my usual auction- and time of day-structure

As the website was down this morning i was not able to post a pre market... But the words "potential short in the hole" would have been part of it...


Some big picture stuff

• We reached yearly vwap a few weeks ago
• We reached yearly volume poc today

long term vwaps




tpo month

20231024 post market




trades 10 24

• We opened with a gap on top of 3 days otf
• A-period moved lower and then failed. I bought it for a covering with target rth l. Exited a little earlier
• Was not so interested in a second long as we are in bearish environment and these long moves are only coverings but everything looked very good at vwap so i took it for a few points
• Did not participate late in the covering move
• After lunchtime i had two minor scalps. The location was not appropriate for more

Can be random but interesting to see

• low of day is composite val of an old 8 week balance area
• high of day is first standard deviation of monthly vwap

20231024 pre market

• we open inside of yesterdays covering day
• we can continue covering
• we can rollover to the short side
• we can find balance here
• wait for the market to show what it wants to do
• wait for milestones, for example onh, onl
• at the moment i see no reason for early, offensive trading

"shakeout news" at 9:45

20231024 post market



trades 10 24

• I expected more
• We held in the upper third of the previous day and made higher lows. I positioned for a bigger covering. They started as if they would do it but failed
• I did not "belive" the selling. I thought: When sellers get in control in this environment, this should look different
• Then they made a 1% move down. I positioned for a second move down at good time of day and location. Also did not work
• I ended with a scalp long which worked
• It is not unusual that i have loosing days when i see potential for MOVEMENT but the market decides to just balance around a bit
• Loosing days are unavoidable

At the moment this is just a 2.5 days Coverering-P

earnings