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Most of what i write or do was not created by me but is based on the work of others. I am very grateful to everyone who has helped me
I am learning and adapting everyday. My education is far from beeing finished
The plan is to make one post pre market and one post after the session. I will describe how i saw the market and how i traded it. Perhaps this is of help for others and also for me
I am interested to get in touch with people who trade similar styles and products to benefit from each others experience
Please feel free to add comments, thoughts, critics, how you saw the market, how you traded it ...
My thoughts about the market
I try to reduce the complexity of the market to a model that a) is as simple as possible and b)suits me
Each timeframe is either Moving or Balancing. If it moves, it moves to find Balance again. Balance is much better to see than Imbalance. "Balance is all we understand" (Merritt Black)
I try to trade in relation to Value. I use Market Profiles to see Value on balancing timeframes. I use vwaps to see Value on moving timeframes
What sounds clear in theory is very hard to trade in real life. Sometimes you have to just see what is and follow. Sometimes you have to be more offensive and anticipate/innovate
In the market, there is always a conflict. At the moment everything seems bullish the inventory is already very long and the risk of a liquidation break is increased
It is always conflicting, but there are sweetspots
my first idea was that we could see some liquidation, for example to y poc or the onl. did not work
as we were not able to liquidate i joined the bulls knowing that liquidations can come. worked
as the liquidation occured i sold my second contract fast and switched to short to join the liquidation. worked nicely
then my thinking was: on the one hand a) liquidation strenghtens a market. on the other hand b) there can be a second liquidation move given that short term inventory is long from the days before
as scenario a) seemed to play out i tried some scalps long. some worked, some not
there is much algo playing in the midtime, which tries to get you out of your position so i dont do this regularly. but i liked how the market absorbed that liquidation
In the beginning i saw first signs of a liquidation and tried to join. did not work. These trades are anticipative and have a lower win rate but a higher risk/reward
When it seemed clearly long and we were one time framing up in C-period i tried a small scalp long. With small i mean small target near hod because the trade is late inside the move. did not work
Then we had again signs of a liquidation. i tried to join but the market made one hook too much and took me out
As nothing worked for me i ended the day early. Days like this are no fun but they are unavoidable
If i remember it right, jim dalton said something like: In a summertime-holiday environment chances are good that status quo remains intact. But IF we see change, there can be good moves because of the low liquidity.
For me this sounds reasonable.
And: You should not be too anticipative. In such an environment its better to be a little bit too late than to be a little bit too early
the gap is a pile on on the trendday + the last 2 sessions
Short term inventory gets longer and longer. Does it mean that inventory has to balance? No, of course not, it can continue to grind up as long as it wants
On the weekly profile we see, that we have poor structure not only below but also above
There is a gap above us that perhaps wants to get filled
If we see a bigger liquidation then the virgin volume poc could be a target
I hope the gap gets large. Then it would be easier to navigate for me. I do not follow large gaps early ...
