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Daytrading ES & NQ


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Daytrading ES & NQ

  #1 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

Hello and welcome to my journal!


My methodology: Auction Market Theory

My tools: Market Profiles and vwaps


Some general points
  • Most of what i write or do was not created by me but is based on the work of others. I am very grateful to everyone who has helped me
  • I am learning and adapting everyday. My education is far from beeing finished
  • The plan is to make one post pre market and one post after the session. I will describe how i saw the market and how i traded it. Perhaps this is of help for others and also for me
  • I am interested to get in touch with people who trade similar styles and products to benefit from each others experience
  • Please feel free to add comments, thoughts, critics, how you saw the market, how you traded it ...

My thoughts about the market
  • I try to reduce the complexity of the market to a model that a) is as simple as possible and b)suits me
  • Each timeframe is either Moving or Balancing. If it moves, it moves to find Balance again. Balance is much better to see than Imbalance. "Balance is all we understand" (Merritt Black)
  • I try to trade in relation to Value. I use Market Profiles to see Value on balancing timeframes. I use vwaps to see Value on moving timeframes
  • What sounds clear in theory is very hard to trade in real life. Sometimes you have to just see what is and follow. Sometimes you have to be more offensive and anticipate/innovate
  • In the market, there is always a conflict. At the moment everything seems bullish the inventory is already very long and the risk of a liquidation break is increased
  • It is always conflicting, but there are sweetspots

ES versus NQ
  • In times of lower volatility i trade the NQ
  • In times of higher volatility i trade the ES

My trades
  • I do not see them as setups. I see them as tools that have to suit to the actual market
  • SCALP_trend: Speculation that a move that has already started will continue. Limit entry on a pullback
  • SCALP_contra: Speculation that a move is (temporarily) over
  • MOVE_first: Trying to catch the start of a first move
  • MOVE_second: Speculate on a second move after a substantial contra-move

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  #2 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

20230830 pre market



  • on the one hand for now it looks like this 5 week pullback could be over
  • on the other hand we had a strong move yesterday and have now many single prints (poor structure) below
  • i am cautiously bullish knowing that short term inventory is long and there can be liquidations
  • my bias would change if we fall back below yesterdays mid

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  #3 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702


20230830 post market


  • we opened near y high
  • my first idea was that we could see some liquidation, for example to y poc or the onl. did not work
  • as we were not able to liquidate i joined the bulls knowing that liquidations can come. worked
  • as the liquidation occured i sold my second contract fast and switched to short to join the liquidation. worked nicely
  • then my thinking was: on the one hand a) liquidation strenghtens a market. on the other hand b) there can be a second liquidation move given that short term inventory is long from the days before
  • as scenario a) seemed to play out i tried some scalps long. some worked, some not
  • there is much algo playing in the midtime, which tries to get you out of your position so i dont do this regularly. but i liked how the market absorbed that liquidation


trades 8 30

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  #4 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

weekly profile

  • At the moment we are moving up on the daily (imbalanced up)
  • The market tries to find balance again so that two sided trade can take place
  • We do not know where it will find balance. But we can look at which areas we had balance in the past

We can analyze 500 things in 500 ways. The most important thing is what happens live. Thats why my no 1 rule is: See what is

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  #5 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

Lets take a closer look at that yellow rectangle in the weekly profile from the prior post and create a composite value area (cva)


cva d

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  #6 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

20230831 pre market


  • the market is bullish. the daily is imbalanced up
  • at the same time short term inventory is already long and we have poor structure below us
  • we are sitting a little bit on the flagpole
  • pce brought no movement
  • tomorrow we have nfp
  • yesterday high is poorish, which could be an indication that the market is too long (short term)
  • we have a vpoc right below yesterdays low

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  #7 (permalink)
nikto
Düsseldorf , Germany
 
Posts: 85 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 92
Thanks Received: 60

Nice Journal, I will follow your Journal and I´m excited to see how it develops. Good Trading !

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  #8 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

20230831 post market

  • Second day of piling on on top of the trendday
  • After its done i call it a neutral / balanced day
  • In the beginning i saw first signs of a liquidation and tried to join. did not work. These trades are anticipative and have a lower win rate but a higher risk/reward
  • When it seemed clearly long and we were one time framing up in C-period i tried a small scalp long. With small i mean small target near hod because the trade is late inside the move. did not work
  • Then we had again signs of a liquidation. i tried to join but the market made one hook too much and took me out
  • As nothing worked for me i ended the day early. Days like this are no fun but they are unavoidable


trades 8 31

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  #9 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702

If i remember it right, jim dalton said something like: In a summertime-holiday environment chances are good that status quo remains intact. But IF we see change, there can be good moves because of the low liquidity.

For me this sounds reasonable.

And: You should not be too anticipative. In such an environment its better to be a little bit too late than to be a little bit too early

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  #10 (permalink)
 Rcap 
Frankfurt Germany
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 524 since Oct 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 702


  • We come in with a gap up after nfp
  • the gap is a pile on on the trendday + the last 2 sessions
  • Short term inventory gets longer and longer. Does it mean that inventory has to balance? No, of course not, it can continue to grind up as long as it wants
  • On the weekly profile we see, that we have poor structure not only below but also above
  • There is a gap above us that perhaps wants to get filled
  • If we see a bigger liquidation then the virgin volume poc could be a target



I hope the gap gets large. Then it would be easier to navigate for me. I do not follow large gaps early ...




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Last Updated on May 20, 2024


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