I use seasonality as the starting point of my analysis on commodity spreads trading, not the only factor, but an important one. I believe seasonality give a quite solid statistical edge, yet I notice this approach isn't very popular, so I was wondering why.
Curious to hear what others trader think about this.
Does anyone else use seasonality as a core part of their approach? Or is there a reason you don't?

SpreadsEnjoyer 

I use seasonality as the starting point of my analysis on commodity spreads trading, not the only factor, but an important one. I believe seasonality give a quite solid statistical edge, yet I notice this approach isn't very popular, so I was wondering why. Curious to hear what others trader think about this. Does anyone else use seasonality as a core part of their approach? Or is there a reason you don't?

None of this works anymore. Just put the data into a backtester and you'll see that these strategies stopped making money a long time ago. They may look obvious on a chart, but that's just an illusion. Run them through a backtester, and all those dreams will disappear.

Thank you for your comment!
Yes, I agree seasonality has lost some of its edge lately, and even more so recently.
A lot of it comes down to how much macro/political noise has been overriding normal seasonal patterns. Energy sector is a good example, with things like the Iran conflict and Trump's social media swinging prices far more than storage cycles or weather ever would in a "normal" year.
Same story in grains, where trade tension with China has disrupted the usual seasonal demand flow from Chinese buyers.
That said, I don't think this kills the approach, it just raises the bar on filtering. If you're selective about which commodities and which spreads you trade, and you're not blindly trusting a 15-year seasonal chart without checking what's driving price action right now, I think the statistical edge is still there.
I still use it as part of my process and it's working, but I trade very selectively, only a handful of trades a month.