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Backtesting is a WASTE OF TIME! It is just another TRADING MYTH. It sounds good. "Everybody says to do it".
AND THAT IS ANOTHER REASON WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE!!
piersh
California
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 120
i'm just doing this (well in this case it's the short version):
how can i tell this is a breakout? this is timeframe invariant, right? and i didn't get a previous buy signal.
the green dashed line in the chart is the daily high. this is 10min ES, but I get similar results for other timeframes & futures (i don't have a forex account).
piersh
California
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 120
i'm not denying your ability to pick trades, i'm just suggesting that there's more to your success than just the strategy that you've outlined here. it's not a simple as you claim. you're not giving your self enough credit.
for one, given that you say there's no such thing as trends, i don't understand how you'd know any of the above trades are part of a breakout. i read this thread quite thoroughly and i didn't see you mention how to do that.
also, i didn't see you mention how to exit profitable trades. can you elaborate? what does the rat do?
piersh
California
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 120
if i can backtest a rat that always turns left, then i should be able to backtest this, right?
if it's a simple as you say, it should stand up under backtesting.
sam028
Site Moderator
Posts: 3,765 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 3,825
Thanks Received: 4,629
Tsss, Piersh, you don't understand...
Replace the EnterShort() by EnterLong(), and you have a 4 trades/4 winners .
The good thing with these kind of very simple systems is that there are easy to backtest, and it's quite easy to see if they work or not.
TheRumpledOne
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 413 since Aug 2009
You have seen my gauges.
One thing I mentioned, MORE THAN ONCE, is that I ONLY GO LONG!
Second thing I mentioned, MORE THAN ONCE, I know what the STATISTICS and FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION tell me about the instruments I trade.
Apparently, your trigger is TOO FAR WAY FROM THE HIGH OF THE DAY.
TheRumpledOne
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 413 since Aug 2009
Most people do NOT know how to backtest properly, not to mention, their data is insufficient.
TheRumpledOne
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 413 since Aug 2009
You are trading on the 10 min and my examples show the 5 min.