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Yachats Oregon U.S.A
Posts: 1 since Aug 2018
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Hello everyone this is my first post and it's a topic (draw down) which is such a crucial issue. Fantastic comments here so far. I have developed a day trading method for the US equity futures market specifically YM and I am confronting these issues. My method is trend following and it seems that I can regularly see 10 to 20 losses in a row or bunched if you will and then eventually I catch a winner for 15- 20 risk units and then maybe a few more winning trades of smaller profit size that get me back in positive equity. An elite member from Germany, I believe, mentioned something about the importance of Dispersion of results when it comes to tradability or comfort of using a certain system. I agree wholeheartedly with that.
The question I have is, doesn't the dispersion change over the course of many trades?? Based on my track record of stock day trades which use the same system logic as my futures day trading method, my win rate historically has been around 23% of trades. But, I must say watching these very long losing streaks in the futures recently has me wondering if the pain of trading it is worth the reward at the end. Is there a way to calculate (expected dispersion) just using the win rate ?? Or is this just the way the market's way( vicious drawdowns) of discouraging folks from trading systems that have a positive edge and a very low win % rate.??
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