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I voted yes. He is smart, he has a job, he has 25K. He doesnt have to stop working to start learning how to trade and since he is smart and has friend who has started the journey he should be able to avoid some of the pitfalls and find out within a year or so if it is something he is really interested in. He certainly doesnt have to risk any coin until he has found a trading niche that he has properly validated. By the time he starts live trading he will have more than 25K.
I have to agree, but I dont think 1 year of expenses is enough IMO... in addition to $25-$50K in at risk capital for trading... 12-18 months of expenses would be ideal, and $25-50K in emergency funds ... I mean there are so many factors.. not just living costs (rent/mortgage/food/utilitis) but also medical, insurance, etc... so going full time has to be planned, and usually is done IMO once you already have gone through the learning curve.. or had some experience trading but lacked the time to concentrate and improve your skills.
biggest issue will be when trying to go back to work if you fail, it will be hard to explain the time off to any company, and as such it will take longer to gain employment.. hence the 12-18 months of expenses and the extra emergency (for medical and prolonged holiday)...
given the poll metrics, by the time he would have started to trade, his savings would have only increased by 8-16K.. assuming a 2 year learning curve while working at a job he hates and that he continued his rate of savings.
thats true. So....if the question to be answered is 'should he quit his job and trade full time', then my answer is a resounding 'no'. That would just be dumb.
I wonder how many traders let out a sigh when they saw the voting results?
I mean, someone could be on futures.io (formerly BMT), all excited about learning to trade, getting out from a dead end job or a job they are unhappy with, looking forward to all the freedom enjoyed by trading....
And then they see this poll... maybe it describes them fairly well, they've got 25k saved they plan to use to open their trading account and turn everything around in their life.
They vote 'yes' on the poll.
Then, they see the results. The majority are voting no. How could this be?
While I don't want to burst anyones bubble or tell them they cannot succeed at their dreams, the cold hard reality is that most will fail at this endeavor. So I'm not sad to see the majority of votes being 'no'. Although, I am surprised. I guess I assumed on a site full of traders, they would vote 'yes' (majority).
We all know trading with rent money is a bad idea. We all know that more pressure = higher chance of failure. Trading is not the kind of job where hard work = success. Hard work is a given here. Success comes primarily to those with great discipline and fortitude. You have to be the kind of person that can admit you are wrong. In trading, you will be wrong a lot. If you can't handle that, trading is not for you.
So maybe the next poll will go something like this:
Your friend is unhappy with his job. He has expressed a lot of interest in trading, and you two talk about it frequently. He is smart and disciplined, and knows the risks involved with trading. He has one year of emergency funds. He also has separate funds of 50k which he is willing to part with to learn how to trade over the next two to three years. At that point, if things are going well, he plans to quit his job and fund his trading account with the savings he has acquired in the last 2-3 years. Do you support his decision?
I agree, wealth is a personal intepretation... IMO, I wont be wealthy unless I have at least $10MM cash on the bank.
I basically evaluated the person based on how long it took him to save the money, not knowing his salary range of earning potential.. for all I know the dood was able to make $100K a year and only saved $8K.. or made $36K a year and saved $8K... two completely different things that would have the same answers... both had discipline.. one was more than the other given the percentages.
I would concur, one will always rather do something one loves for a career than have a 9-5 job... I know that is how I feel.. however, $70K to live off trading is not nearly enough... IMO... trading is not a very long term career, so one's job as a trader is to push that envelop and make as much money as possible from trading opportunities... if you are trading and the odds are in your favor, it is your job to maximize it to the fullest..
no-one ever made it anywhere by taking into account the criticism (negative mainly) of those around oneself... only those with determination in face of adversity make it forward IMO... feedback from those around you is good and one should always take them under consideration, but in the end, one has to decide.
The only traders I know are a bunch of old geezers who made money doing something else and retired . Now they have huge 401k's which they seem intent upon spending before they die and trading seems to offer them the ability to do just that...
I would tell him not to.
I've known a lot of folks that were unhappy and changed jobs or their marital status or the house they were
living in and were shocked to find they were still unhappy.
If he's unhappy now wait until he quits his secure job, has to pay for his insurance himself, finds out he can't get a loan to save his life , realizes there will be no check coming every two weeks .... . Add to that the initial drawdown from trading ... his wife/soon to be ex wife and his mother both asking him if he is on drugs , going through a mid life crisis or just went terminally stupid ... and then to top it off... finds out that all the others on his favorite trading board that encouraged him ... all are still SIM trading and still have their day jobs...
.... as the bottle of Jack Daniels slipped from his grasp and fell empty onto the floor of his newly rented efficiency apt ... the unhappy trader muttered to himself... That Man From Texas was the only one that tried to point out reality to me.. he is such a wise old guy......
I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.
My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"