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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
"Although there is optimism that the talks over Iran’s nuclear program will eventually lead to some sort of a settlement, the embargo is still in place and Israel continues to rattle its sabers. The Israelis are upset that the next round of meetings will not take place until late May and are warning that they will not stand by while Tehran gains the time to move its nuclear facilities underground. To back up this concern, the government permitted Israeli TV to air a program showing Israeli war planes practicing for attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities."
Volume rolled to June. I still have not found a way to have a chart drawing in a May contract convert to a June contract. Erased and started over. I can keep thw drawing objects, but the points will not move to reflect the different price between months. Is it possible to have the pivots line up from month to month?
I'll try to circle back around after my market closes but for now just wanted jot down a thought on this.
Perhaps rather than looking at each trade individually you can look at each day individually or each week. In other words - rather than altering positions size based on your confidence in a given trade, you can alter position size during a particular day or particular week and then watch how your confidence levels change and how your confidence level impinges on your comfort level with the larger size. Once you can see more clearly how your level of confidence in yourself, your ability to have a positive expectancy, etc influences the comfort level with the larger size you can begin to isolate this factor (confidence) and work on it directly (perhaps by altering the ratio between how much charting and analysis you do vs. time you spend actively stalking trades). The idea would be to take the idea of confidence to the "next level up" - above individual trades to "you as a trader".
I do think that to become very successful you will need to recognize trades in which you have higher confidence vs lower confidence and "lever up" (as deucalion says) when you recognize a very good trade. But I also think this requires a high level of ability, confidence, and discipline to do properly.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
The following user says Thank You to Surly for this post:
Deucalion posted some Steenbarger docs about performance under uncertainty recently - here's a quote from one that is relevant (emphasis mine):
Self-Efficacy – The athlete’s beliefs about his or her own capacity to perform is significantly related to actual performance. The belief in one’s own capacity to succeed is the single most important personality factor associated with athletic success. Studies find that interventions that improve self-efficacy tend to improve athletic performance, even when they involve mental practice (imagery) rather than actual athletic performance.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
The following user says Thank You to Surly for this post:
Today is an example where ignoring most indicatrs has served me well. The chart pattern was bullish, the indicators said "sell", volume said otherwise. I am up 95 ticks, but could not explain how really.
There was a TON of support at 102.50, which was the RSP area, giving me twhat I needed to fade the market after what might be bearish news. That trade, however, was not high on my "confidence factor", as it felt very freight-trainish, I had nothing but a zone. 1 contract in and out on the way up was the bulk of it, a short calp after stops blew at 103.20 area...
I would guess the planes flying on Israel's new channels may be enough to keep shorts on the sidelines, for now, but could be wrong. The line is drawn at 102.50.
