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Probabilities:
-95% of the time, one side of the overnight (ON) range is tested.
-25% of the time, both sides of initial balance (IB) are broken.
-96% of the time, one side of initial balance (IB) is broken.
-66% of the time, the initial balance high (IBH) is broken.
-54% of the RTH days are a Normal Variation Day (IB<15 points)
-25% of the RTH days are a Neutral Day (Both IBs are broken)
-18% of the RTH days are a Trend Day (RTH Range>15 points)
- 3% of the RTH days are a Normal Day (IBs are not broken)
thought process
we have poor high and poor low gaps below and naked poc below. 54.25 separates the two distributions. long above that.
as long as we above the torqouise blue area 47.5 market is bullish. it may sell off till there take out the poor low fill the gap and go back up again.
will be buyer. right now i have no clear thought to me it looks like a short to the gap fill balance target is 45 so not doing anything will look during london and euro open. if we gap down i will look to be a buyer to fill the gap above the poc above from today.
forgot one more thing this is Tuesday pit bull Thursday-Friday. the low is put the Thursday-Friday before the options expiration. SPX has a closest open interest at 2725 and than 2700
spy has an open interest at 270, 271.5-272 and 275
qqq has open interest at 160 and 159
so cautious for longs here.
Not sure of the direction the closes naked poc is above and 1 gap fill above and i naked poc below. I will have to watch the periods to look for direction
Balance target is 0 not change but rth is 53 so perhaps i will look to short there. And want to be careful opening a trade tonight for i cant manage it.
